TCU Likely to Spurn Big East, Move to Big 12 in 2012
by Year2 on Oct 6, 2011 1:50 PM EDT
in Conference Realignment
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PrintThe Big 12 is going to survive as long as the Longhorn Network and Oklahoma have nowhere else they want to go. It will keep its BCS auto-bid as long as the Fiesta Bowl exists and agrees take its champion every year. It's not on completely stable ground, but it's at least stable-ish.
The Big East is on considerably shakier ground with two teams soon to bolt to the ACC (leaving it with six football members) and no BCS bowl tie-in. That plus geography and history make it likely that TCU will spurn the Big East it was set to join and go to the Big 12 instead. CBS even has sources saying "it's a done deal", though nothing has been made official just yet.
With Missouri shopping itself around, it's not certain that the Big 12 will have ten members next year. However the step of adding TCU indicates it will continue to exist whether the Tigers leave for the SEC or not. CBS says the conference would likely expand to 12 if Mizzou does bolt, with Louisville, BYU, West Virginia, and Cincinnati as likely candidates. As an aside, I sincerely doubt that TCU joining the Big 12 will play a factor in Missouri's decision making process.
Whatever the case, the future of the Big East as a football conference looks more tenuous than ever while the Big 12 appears to be a survivor for now.
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I have really started to change my mind on Mizzou
the last couple of days. I have read some of their boards, and a lot of fans talk about their dream scenario being that the B1G will swoop in and take them and KU. I just don’t a get a good feeling that Mizzou really wants the SEC like I did with A&M. I personally think WVU is a better fit culturally, but I know that expansion is not driven by actual on-field play or cultural fit. It is about TV sets. Which is a shame, because I would love to see WVU vs. UGA or SCar
I just can’t imagine that if the SEC took Mizzou and next year the B1G offered them that they wouldn’t bolt for the B1G. Which would leave the SEC in a tight spot. If they come to the SEC I would welcome them, but I wouldn’t be as happy as I would if it were a WVU/Clemson or even FSU.
On the TCU deal, good for the horned frogs. They belong in the BIG XII.
I wouldn't worry about Mizzou bolting for the Big Ten
While Mizzou would probably prefer a Big Ten invite to an SEC invite for a large number of reasons at present, there are a number of reasons that Mizzou would not bolt for the Big Ten if they joined the Big Ten:
1. No school likes to change conferences. It costs a lot of money and can create significant logistical issues. Typically, the only reasons that a school will change conferences is if the new conference represents a large athletic or financial upgrade, their conference is falling apart, or they have a terrible relationship with other school(s) in the conference. All of these are factors in moving from the Big 12 to the Big Ten, SEC, or Pac 12, but they do not exist when moving from the SEC to the Big Ten.
2. They’d have to pay whatever the SEC buyout is, along with any other financial penalties the SEC chooses to add as deterrents if this is a real fear.
3a. There would be serious damage to Mizzou’s reputation from a PR standpoint.
3b. If the SEC takes Mizzou while the Big Ten won’t, it seems likely that such a move would lead Mizzou to feel gratitude and a degree of loyalty to the SEC as a result.
4. The Big Ten doesn’t really want Mizzou. The only schools that the Big Ten would take as a 13th school right now are Notre Dame and Texas. Neither school is likely to join the Big Ten in the near future. Furthermore, the best choice for a 14th team if the Big Ten can pick up one of these schools is not necessarily Mizzou. If the Big Ten can get ND, I’d imagine they’d take Rutgers, BC, or UConn as the 14th (or an ACC team if they can manage it, but that’s unlikely), in order to capture the NYC TV market (or the Boston TV market if they think that ND delivers NYC). If the Big Ten gets Texas, I’d imagine that Kansas and Rutgers are both more desirable than Mizzou, Kansas because it delivers the KC market (illinois+Kansas delivers STL) and they have an elite basketball program (neither school is very helpful from a football standpoint) and Rutgers for the potential at grabbing the NYC TV market.
The SEC doesn't need to penalize teams for leaving
Because no one has thought about leaving in 45 years.
"So I want everybody to think here for a second, how much does this game mean to you? 'Cause if it means something to you, you can't stand still. You understand? You play fast! You play strong! You go out there and dominate the man you're playing against, and you make his ass quit! That's our trademark! That's our M.O.... as a team! That's what people know us as!" - Coach Nick Saban before the 2008 LSU game.
by 12NationalChampionships on Oct 6, 2011 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Big 1G
Probably wants Notre Dame and probably Pittsburgh.
by fracas on Oct 6, 2011 4:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The B1G is sitting back right now...
And rubbing its hands together with glee watching the Big East get decimated, because it makes a Notre Dame move (BE for basketball) slightly more likely.
"So I want everybody to think here for a second, how much does this game mean to you? 'Cause if it means something to you, you can't stand still. You understand? You play fast! You play strong! You go out there and dominate the man you're playing against, and you make his ass quit! That's our trademark! That's our M.O.... as a team! That's what people know us as!" - Coach Nick Saban before the 2008 LSU game.
by 12NationalChampionships on Oct 6, 2011 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions
The Big Ten doesn't want Pitt
They could have had Pitt as the 12 team a long time ago if they wanted them. Although Pitt’s academics fit into the Big Ten, nothing much else does.
The BTN already dominates all the PA markets with the presence of Penn State so Pitt would bring no new revenue. Pitt does not bring in new markets coupled with a national draw like Nebraska and it doesn’t bring what Notre Dame brings as well.
It’s possible that Maryland ends up in the Big Ten one day and I believe if they were heading for 14 and knew they could get ND then Maryland would be their first choice. But the Big Ten will not expand at all if they can’t get Notre Dame.
But they would take Pitt if that somehow got ND into the fold.
I think they would take any of a lot of schools to even up the numbers, so long as ND was one of them.
That may be true.
But they don’t have to worry about it anymore because Pitt is headed to the ACC. I think actually that Rutgers or UConn would bring more to the Big Ten than Pitt would.
Really more likely Rutgers
Which is kind of odd at first glance, but except for the whole not being good at anything part, Rutgers is pretty much a Big Ten school — huge, pretty good, big-time research state flagship school.
ND wants the Big East to last as something they’re comfortable with keeping their non-football sports in, and their fans seem to prefer the ACC to the B1G if they have to do something really distasteful and join a football conference (and no matter how many times the B12 suggests joining either in all sports or everything but football, they aren’t going there).
TCU heading to the Big 12 dooms the Big East if it wasn't doomed already
It will be interesting to see how this move affects all the others.
They have apparently invited ECU and UCF.
And I hope ECU’s AD says “Hell No.”
Oh look my tumblr, where you can find all my photoshops and other crap
My lazy ass twitter.
Sanity is for the weak.
by RjTheMetalhead on Oct 7, 2011 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions
At this point that might actually be a wise move.
The Big East is going to lose their AQ status and it’s still very possible that more football schools leave the BE. So does ECU really gain anything by leaving CUSA? Maybe CUSA can invite USF and Cinncinati back and continue the trend of 14 team conferences. At this point, the CUSA is really no less valuable than the BE and you could give up some recruiting ground by heading into a league dominated by Northeastern schools.
I don’t think that ECU should hold out for an SEC invite though. I just don’t think that’s going to happen right now.
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