Preparing for BlogPoll: What To Do With SEC Teams, and Spitballin' Half the Ballot
by cocknfire on Aug 20, 2010 10:30 AM EDT
in SEC Football
Email
PrintIt's getting close. And as part of the season getting closer and closer, it's time to actually get serious about the BlogPoll. So this post has two purposes: First, to lay out my thinking about which SEC teams could or couldn't be ranked this year, and why. Second, to give you my preliminary first ballot and get your feedback. We begin with the SEC teams.
THE ELITE OF THE CONFERENCE
ALABAMA (No. 1 to No. 3)
Why they could be No. 1: Because they're the defending BCS Champions. Because they have the Heisman Trophy winner and maybe the most accomplished quarterback in the SEC.
Why they could be No. 3 (or lower): Because they have two returning defensive starters. Because they will probably have to play Florida twice. Because they face 17 teams coming off of bye weeks.
FLORIDA (No. 5 to No. 10)
Why they could be No. 5 (or higher): Because Urban Meyer didn't retire. Because John Brantley has plenty of targets to work with and an SEC-caliber line to work behind.
Why they could be No. 10 (or lower): Because Tim Tebow is gone. Because last year's defense is now called "the New England Patriots." Because they will probably have to play Alabama twice.
SHOULD BE RANKED
ARKANSAS (No. 10 to No. 20)
Why they could be No. 10 (or higher): Because Ryan Mallett will at some point be part of the Heisman conversation. Because a modest improvement in the defense could make them the biggest challenger to Alabama in the entire league.
Why they could be No. 20 (or lower): Because no improvement in the defense could mean another bowl game named after an American constitutional value. Because Bobby Petrino will leave in Week 9 to coach Michigan. Because it wasn't Houston Nutt -- it's Arkansas.
AUBURN (No. 15 to No. 25)
Why they could be No. 15 (or higher): Because Gene Chizik is no longer Mr. 5-19. Because Cam Newton might just be that good. Because after the team's other offense gains so many yards, players start falling over from exhaustion.
Why they could be No. 25 (or unranked): Because Gene Chizik is still Mr. 13-24. Because those exhausted players will have already scored 70 points.
ON THE BUBBLE
GEORGIA (No. 15 to No. 25)
Why they could be No. 15 (or higher): Because the defensive coordinator is not named Willie Martinez. Because there's a lot of talent in Athens. Because Mark Richt wasn't caught with a DUI in Atlanta.
Why they could be No. 25 (or unranked): Because the temperature of his seat could cause Mark Richt to spontaneously combust. Because the defensive players are still the same, and it's not that easy to change schemes.
LSU (No. 15 to No. 25)
Why they could be No. 15 (or higher): Because Jordan Jefferson might be better than you think he is. Because even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Why they could be No. 25 (or unranked): Because Les Miles is still the head coach. Because Gary Crowton is still the offensive coordinator. Because Jordan Jefferson might not be better than you think he is.
SOUTH CAROLINA
Why they could be ranked: Because Ellis Johnson is still running the defense. Because Stephen Garcia has been motivated by Steve Spurrier's criticism. Because the rest of the East is almost as big a question mark this year as the Gamecocks.
Why they could be unranked: Because Eric Norwood is gone. Because Stephen Garcia is still Stephen Garcia until further notice.
LONG SHOTS
Ole Miss: Too many questions about the offense, even with Jeremiah Masoli joining the team, to rank them.
Tennessee: Sure, it could happen. All the Vols need is, say, 10 or 15 four-star walk-ons.
NOT GOING TO HAPPEN
Kentucky: There's a reason they load up on the cupcakes to become bowl-eligible every year.
Mississippi State: Dan Mullen will have this team ranked -- some other year.
Vanderbilt: They will lead the league in turkey insemination references, but nothing else.
THE DRAFT HALF-BALLOT
Now, for the draft ballot. This is my attempt to resolve the controversies above, the controversies in this post and come up with a very very preliminary stab at things. I'm going to spend quite a bit of time reading over a few more team profiles in Phil Steele and doing a bit more research this weekend.
I will emphasize: This is an entirely out-of-left-field ballot aimed at much as getting feedback as actually reflecting what my vote will look like on Monday.
1 Alabama
2 Boise State
3 Ohio State
4 Virginia Tech
5 Arizona
Yeah, I know, kind of boring. Alabama-Boise State-Ohio State in some arrangement for the Top 3, followed by -- Virginia Tech? Arizona?!? I will admit upfront that Arizona is a lark. I think the Pac-10 is a pick 'em this year, and you might as well go bold since this ballot doesn't actually "count" or anything. The Wildcats have been building toward a big season, and with the up-and-down swings of Oregon in the offseason, I think the window is open for Arizona. As for Virginia Tech: Frank Beamer and the possibility of a breakout year for the quarterback is enough. If I'm ranking Ohio State as a Top 5 team, there's really no reason not to rank Virginia Tech as a Top 5 team. I think they lose narrowly to Boise State in DC and then win 13 straight to close out the season with a BCS bowl ring.
6 TCU
7 Nebraska
8 Florida
9 Connecticut
10 Wisconsin
I don't know about TCU. Part of me agrees with Year2 that they ought to be higher than Boise State -- except that they lost to Boise State head to head to end the year last year and lose a couple more starters than do the Broncos. I'm definitely open to placing them in the Top 5, if not in the final preseason ballot than early in the season. I do think this is the year for the Huskers, in part because no team in the Big XII South really impresses me that much right now. If Florida had fewer questions, they might be a Top 5 team. As long as I'm going to bet on UConn, I'm going all in. Wisconsin -- because somebody in the Big Ten has to come in second, and the Badgers are going to be the Badgers again now that they've found a 900-pound running back.
11 Arkansas
12 Oklahoma
13 Georgia Tech
14 Oregon
15 Texas
I've said Arkansas will have 10 wins this year, and I'm a heck of a lot more confident in them to have 10 wins than Georgia, so they're in the Top 15. I want to see Oklahoma play well first; if they do, they'll quickly be in the Top 10 at least. Georgia Tech's offense is going to make them the only real challenger to Virginia Tech in the ACC. Oregon could still win the Pac-10, but I have my doubts after everything that happened there over the spring and summer. I'm still not sure I haven't overranked Texas -- you don't lose a quarterback like Colt McCoy and then have a season indicating nothing happened.
16 Stanford
17 Utah
18 Florida State
19 Auburn
20 Iowa
And this is the "a lot of teams I didn't know what to do with" category. Pac-10 chaos is why there are four teams (keep reading) on the ballot -- I just don't know who's going to win. Utah, just because. Florida State, because I think they could be a Top 10 team but they also could end up at Seminole Equilibrium, which means they'll be lucky to be in the Top 25. Auburn, because they have to stop allowing 750 yards a game before they go any higher. I don't think Iowa will fall off the map, but I also think the Hawkeyes are running out of rabbits' feet.
21 Washington
22 Georgia
23 LSU
24 Nevada
25 Pittsburgh
Again, the only Pac-10 winner that would surprise this year is Texas Tech. And, yes, I didn't rank Southern Cal. No, that has nothing to do with the bowl ban. Georgia and LSU are kind of "split the difference" teams -- my confidence in either is very low, but I think they both have high ceilings if they fix the problems they had last year. Nevada, because the Angry Ostrich is still their quarterback, and I don't want him to attack me. I almost had BYU at No. 25, but I think it's distracting to not know what league you're going to be a part of until a few days before the season. So Pittsburgh because -- why not?
If you're wondering what the combined ballot would look like at this moment:
1 Ohio State
2 Alabama
3 TCU
4 Virginia Tech
5 Boise State
6 Florida
7 Oklahoma
8 Nebraska
9 Oregon
10 Texas
11 Arkansas
12 Georgia Tech
13 Wisconsin
14 Iowa
15 Arizona
16 Utah
17 Connecticut
18 Cincinnati
19 Auburn
20 Pittsburgh
21 Georgia
22 LSU
23 Stanford
24 Florida State
25 Miami (FL)
23 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
No, yes
“Because the defensive players are still the same, and it’s not that easy to change schemes.”
Your second point here is correct. As for the first one, it’s worth noting that the player(s) on defense most likely to send Georgia fans into a nuclear rage are gone.
yup
The secondary that got burned is gone.
but point #2 is accurate
by knowshon loves legos on Aug 20, 2010 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree with some of that, but I can't quarrel too loudly with any of it.
This, by the way, is 100 per cent accurate:
Georgia and LSU are kind of “split the difference” teams — my confidence in either is very low, but I think they both have high ceilings if they fix the problems they had last year.
That is it precisely.
Go 'Dawgs!
Deadpan snarker, here:
“Again, the only Pac-10 winner that would surprise this year is Texas Tech.”
Yes, that would surprise me too.
Team Speed Kills -- SBNation's SEC Blog
If you're so inclined, follow me @Year2
Georgia and LSU are kind of "split the difference" teams — my confidence in either is very low, but I think they both have high ceilings if they fix the problems they had last year.
No credit for the UGA offense? One of the more productive offenses in the SEC last year. Only lost there qb( who was the worst part of the offense)
Georgia improved as the year went on
And whether or not that really translates to this season depends on which one of these factors you buy the most:
1) Georgia started playing some pretty meh defensive teams
or
2) The OL shored up, Ealey’s shirt got burned, and the Dawgs finally were able to run the ball.
by D.N. Nation on Aug 20, 2010 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
After the Holiday Bowl,
just how is Arizona ranked higher than Nebraska? Sue wasn’t responsible for all 33 points and a shutout.
"In case you're wondering what the offense should look like, that wasn't it." - Urban Meyer
well, yeah
I don’t think anyone claims Arizona was better than Nebraska last year.
But Suh* is indeed gone now, while Nick Foles is back for Arizona. They’re going to beat Washington this year, and they would’ve last year too except for a 4th quarter interception off someone’s shoe (and the ground).
The Huskers had a chance to win the Big 12 last year, both teams looked pretty lousy in the contest, and for some reason I think that’s as close as Nebraska will come for the time being. They’re the best team in their division, but only the 3rd best in their conference.
With Arizona, it’s not at all clear who’s standing in their way. Whatever happened last year, I can see where some voters might think they have higher potential than Nebraska this year.
Still...
don’t understand the love affair with Oklahoma everyone is having… they lost a ton of great players off a team that didn’t do very well last year.
Good to see that someone else ranked Cincinnati, think they are getting a raw deal… and will have better QB play this season, along with not missing a beat in regards to coaching.
Also, I’d drop Miami off… and possibly Oregon ~10 spots until I see their new QB actually perform competently in their offense. Actually, I’d switch Cinci and Arizona if I really wanted a lark pick that might make me look like a genius.
Plus okis lost it's kicker for the year and Zack C. played either 4 or 5 full games last year and helped win .....
all of them. He is dual threat too. I saw two big runs from him for td’s. He will probably turn out better than Pike bc he is dual threat.
I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. Glory favors the bold. Chance favors the prepared mind. Luck, well i have that too. University of Utah goes to the Pac-12 conference in 2011. I expect them to compete immediately for the conference CG. Brock Lesnar will defeat Cain Velasquez. Womens MMA, the next big thing in sports. 2 weeks till the first game of college football. UTAH vs Pitt. September 2nd 2010.
by wolfmanshowlforever on Aug 20, 2010 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Oklahoma.
I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. Glory favors the bold. Chance favors the prepared mind. Luck, well i have that too. University of Utah goes to the Pac-12 conference in 2011. I expect them to compete immediately for the conference CG. Brock Lesnar will defeat Cain Velasquez. Womens MMA, the next big thing in sports. 2 weeks till the first game of college football. UTAH vs Pitt. September 2nd 2010.
by wolfmanshowlforever on Aug 20, 2010 7:43 PM EDT reply actions
IMO
Iowa is underated… great defense…arkansas I would switch with miami due to their defense, which was last in the SEC the previous season.
It always bums me out...
when preseason polls are voted as prediction polls instead of assessments of how good the voter thinks they are right now.
It always bums me out...
When I see Boise State ranked in the top 5 in preseason polls.
Gator Bait: The first, and still the best.
Why?
Not trying to be confrontational … Honestly asking.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
by cocknfire on Aug 21, 2010 7:03 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I just believe that if they played in a BCS conference, even the ACC or Big East, they would not emerge undefeated year after year. If you put them in the Pac-10, Big 12, Big Ten or SEC, I believe they would be looking at 2-3 losses each year.
I know that it’s hard for them to schedule tough out of conference games, since the big boy schools are scared of them, and I do give them credit for usually beating BCS teams when they meet them.
But let’s see what they’ve done year in and year out since their Fiesta Bowl season that would justify their place in the polls.
In 2006, their best win during the season was against Oregon State. They got caught in a bit of a shootout with Hawaii, and pulled a stunner over Oklahoma. You can’t tell me if that game had been played 10 times that Oklahoma wouldn’t have won more than they lost- not t diminish what Boise State did, it was a great game, but if they had to play teams like Oklahoma week in and week out, they would probably loose more often than not.
In 2007, they lost to Washington, who was pretty bad (finished 4-9), but that was a road game. They also lost to Hawaii in another road game. Hawaii was undefeated that year, but we all know how good they actually were thanks to Georgia. That also shows that running the table in a weak conference (the WAC) doesn’t mean you can run with the big dawgs (pun intended).
In 2008, they played two good teams, Oregon and TCU- they beat Oregon, but lost to TCU. I do give them credit for a road win in Oregon, as that is not an easy feat.
Last year, they beat Oregon to start the year, but as we know, that was an Oregon team that hadn’t found its groove yet. If that game had been played in the middle of the year, I think we can agree the outcome may have been much different. They also beat TCU in the sleaziest BCS game ever (should’ve have Boise and TCU play two BCS schools instead of each other).
So while Boise State does usually beat the quality opponents they play, they play so few of them that I don’t think you can consider them an elite team. Any good program could probably run the table feasting on cupcakes and playing one or two semi-tough or tough games a year.
Running the table in the WAC doesn’t impress me. The move to the MWC was great before Utah bolted, but now it’s just a tiny step up from the WAC instead of a real step towards legitimacy. I just don’t believe that Boise has the talent or depth to play quality BCS teams week in and week out. Probably a top 10-15 team, but I don’t think they deserve to play to a championship unless all the BCS schools have 2+ losses.
I really do think that a 1-loss Ohio State and say 1-loss Alabama would both deserve to play for the championship over an undefeated Boise State. That said, I’m hoping the Hokies lay the smack down so all this nonsense gets put to bed. Let’s be real- if Ohio State, Florida, Alabama, etc. loses a game, no one counts them out of the championship race- if Boise State were to lose to VT, who do you know that would still have them playing for the NC even if they were undefeated the rest of the way? No one, because their schedule does no justify it.
Gator Bait: The first, and still the best.
Fair enough
I do think if they defeat VT, Oregon State and run the table and you combine that with their accomplishments last year (when they were essentially the same team, though I know you can’t “really” do that), they will have proven they belong.
But I have to disagree with you about the 2007 Fiesta Bowl. One must never underestimate the resourcefulness of Oklahoma when it comes to losing BCS games.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
by cocknfire on Aug 21, 2010 7:18 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
"usually beating BCS teams when they meet them"
I guess this is becoming part of my job. Since 2000, Boise State is 6-10 against BCS-conference schools, 2-8 when playing away from home (the two wins were by one and six points), 0-4 against SEC teams.
Carry on.
I try to do both
But let me ask you this: How are we supposed to know how good any of these teams are when none of them have played anyone?
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
by cocknfire on Aug 21, 2010 7:02 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
^This^
It’s why I really can’t be too harsh about my disagreements with any of these polls. I do think Arizona is too high and Florida is too low, but it’s not like I have anything substantive to back that up – no one has played yet.
And I also agree about how open the Pac 10 is, which I think really screws preseason polling up. Honestly, who knows how it will shake out this year? Could be Arizona, Oregon, Washington, really anyone.
And I like leaving USC out. I feel like media members have been way too high on them considering how harsh the probation will be, coupled with having Lane Kiffin as a head coach. As an Alabama fan, I can say that it is VERY tough to be any good when you lose a bunch of scholarships.
"You know, we had a lot of fun tonight. But there's nothing funny about vapor lock! It's the third most common cause of cars stalling. So please, take care of your car and get it checked!" -Joe Namath
by billycthulhu on Aug 21, 2010 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
If you don't know
then stop coming out with preseason polls.
by knowshon loves legos on Aug 23, 2010 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
A) No one knows. Not one person.
B) The BlogPoll requires a preseason poll, so we have to make a preseason poll.
Team Speed Kills -- SBNation's SEC Blog
If you're so inclined, follow me @Year2
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
