SEC 2010 // Are the Odds Against a Third Undefeated Regular Season for Alabama?

OVERVIEW

I'm still not sure where I fall on the "coin flip" debate around Alabama -- you know, the idea that no matter how many times you flip a coin, there's always a 50-50 chance that either side will come up on the next flip. That's about the best way to describe the answer whenever the likelihood of Alabama having a third straight undefeated regular season comes up: The odds are still the same as they ever were. The fact that Alabama has had a 24-0 run through the last two schedules doesn't have any bearing on the chances of it happening this year.

Yes and no. It's about as close as possible to a simple, basic fact that Alabama's success this year is going to depend largely on what this year's team does. But it is also a simple, basic fact that we're not flipping coins here. It's also a fact that it's incredibly hard to win 12 games and lose none. And that it usually takes the odd lucky bounce or other break to get there. And that there are only so many times that you can get those breaks before you run out.

But there's also another factor in college football that isn't there for the coin flipper: An opponent. Already, some coaches have undoubtedly begun breaking down film of Alabama, trying to figure out how they're going to try to lead the team that finally ends the streak. Greg McElroy is no longer a mystery. Mark Ingram's specialties are now on tape. Defensive game plans will probably be a little better, particularly at the beginning of the season, than they were last year.

Despite all of that, I still think Alabama could go undefeated. They have to be the favorite in almost all of their games, if not all of their games, and at least one of the front-runners for the national title. By those standards, I suppose, the odds of an undefeated season are the same as they ever were.

Still, it feels like the goal will be harder for Alabama to reach with each game that passes.

SEASON RESULTS

Place: 1st in the SEC West
Record: 11-1, 7-1 SEC
Could be: 8-4 to 12-0
Best chance to be upset (aside from obvious): South Carolina
Bowl: BCS (either National Championship Game or Sugar)

GAME-BY-GAME

9.4.10 | SAN JOSE STATE | WIN
9.11.10 | PENN STATE | POSSIBLE WIN
9.18.10 | at DUKE | PROBABLE WIN
9.25.10 | at ARKANSAS | POSSIBLE WIN
10.2.10 | FLORIDA | POSSIBLE LOSS
10.9.10 | at SOUTH CAROLINA | PROBABLE WIN
10.16.10 | OLE MISS | PROBABLE WIN
10.23.10 | at TENNESSEE | LIKELY WIN
11.6.10 | at LSU | POSSIBLE WIN
11.13.10 | MISSISSIPPI STATE | LIKELY WIN
11.18.10 | GEORGIA STATE | WIN
11.26.10 | AUBURN | PROBABLE WIN

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Team Speed Kills

You must be a member of Team Speed Kills to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Team Speed Kills. You should read them.

Join Team Speed Kills

You must be a member of Team Speed Kills to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Team Speed Kills. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker