SEC 2010 // Why Are the Dawgs Second in the SEC East?
OVERVIEW
I've said more than once over the past few months that I'm not exactly sold on the Dawgs. I've never really spelled out all my reasons, and some of them are not exactly the most sound statistically. It's not that I think the Dawgs are going to drop into the bottom half of the FBS or anything, but I do think that the selections I'm making here are the ceiling rather than the floor. Why? Here you go:
- The quarterback situation. I know, I know -- it's not that big a deal to lose Joe Cox. This coming from the same fan base -- joined at the time by the head coach -- that tried to make the case that it wasn't a big deal to lose Matthew Stafford, in part because of the leadership skills of ... um, Joe Cox. Which is their right as fans of the Dawgs, but doesn't exactly quiet the nerves of someone trying to look at the team objectively. Aaron Murray might very well be better than Joe Cox, but we won't know that until the season is played, and the possibility that he's at least equal and perhaps worse has to be considered.
- The 3-4. This is probably the right decision for the future, and we've noted before here that firing Willie Martinez was almost certainly the only move. But it will take time for the players to adjust; it's more complicated than "put an extra linebacker on the field." You have to wonder if the game or two the Dawgs might win because they fired Martinez will be canceled out by the game or two the Dawgs might lose because of unfamiliarity with the defensive scheme.
- The echoes of 2009. Let's face it; at times last year, Georgia just didn't look like a very good football team. They obviously were a good team overall; you don't go 8-5 overall in the SEC without being one. But good teams also generally don't do things like lose to Kentucky at home and get completely waxed in Knoxville by a Jonathan Crompton-led offense. Maybe Martinez's departure fixes all of that on its own. I have my doubts.
So, given all that, why in the world do I have Georgia ranked second in the SEC East, ahead of a South Carolina team projected to have its breakout season for the fifth year in a row? (Therein lies part of the answer, but I digress.) The answer is: Mark Richt. But it's the last time I'll probably give that answer without something more to back it up. Richt might not be on the proverbial hot seat at Georgia, but I'm getting a little wary of predicting good seasons in Athens based at least in part on the head coach's ability after three years of overshooting based on that. Georgia fans might not need to see anything more from Richt this year, but as much as I'm not exactly a Dawg fan, I would like to.
Oh, and you're not misreading any of those predictions. Even that one.
SEASON RESULTS
Place: 2nd in the SEC East
Record: 9-3, 5-3 SEC
Could be: 7-5 to 11-1
Best chance to be upset (aside from obvious): Georgia Tech
Bowl: Outback Bowl
GAME-BY-GAME
9.4.10 | LOUSIANA-LAFAYETTE | WIN
9.11.10 | at SOUTH CAROLINA | POSSIBLE LOSS
9.18.10 | ARKANSAS | POSSIBLE LOSS
9.25.10 | at MISSISSIPPI STATE | PROBABLE WIN
10.2.10 | at COLORADO | PROBABLE WIN
10.9.10 | TENNESSEE | POSSIBLE WIN
10.16.10 | VANDERBILT | LIKELY WIN
10.23.10 | at KENTUCKY | PROBABLE WIN
10.30.10 | vs. FLORIDA | POSSIBLE WIN
11.6.10 | IDAHO STATE | WIN
11.13.10 | at AUBURN | POSSIBLE LOSS
11.27.10 | GEORGIA TECH | POSSIBLE WIN
14 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I presume "that one" is the one on 10.30?
Are we talking about the same degree of “possible” that the loss to South Carolina is? If so, “possible” seems to cover a vast swath of potential outcomes, including a pre-Halloween meteor strike in Gainesville. In seriousness, I’d love to hear the rationale.
Personally, as a Dawg fan, I’m a lot less scared of Stephen Garcia going against a 3-4 (even a pretty green one) of which he’s seen no film than I am of Urban Meyer with an off week to consume 8 games’ worth of film on a team he’s throttled the past two seasons. Understand, that’s not a slight at Garcia. I’m just speaking in relative terms.
If you’re arguing that Georgia may start slow and gather steam by late October, fair enough. That’s been the pattern from 2006 on, and the 2007 season featured a loss to South Carolina and a win against a Florida that was in transition. So, yeah, “possible.”
MarktheShark is right on the order of predictions. Possible means I think it will happen but with a rather low degree of confidence.
Were I a Georgia fan, I would be more worried about how my defense is going to handle the transition to a 3-4 and how my quarterback is going to do in the first “real” game on schedule — and a road game at that — as opposed to “Urban Meyer with an off week to consume 8 game’s worth of film.” First of all, Stephen Garcia has seen at least one 3-4 defense I can think of off the top of my head, and it’s not like Todd Grantham has never run a defense before or that he’s bring this mysterious formation that no one’s ever seen to Athens. Sure, it will be different, but there are ways to figure out how it will work, and there are no guarantees that it will work the first couple of weeks.
By Oct. 30, the defense will have largely figured out the scheme and Aaron Murray and the coaches will both have a better idea of what to expect out of each other. And Florida can’t keep defeat Georgia forever.
Finally, this is meant to be somewhat fun. I’m not saying I don’t believe my predictions — I do — but I also recognize that it would be ridiculous to carve anything in stone more than a month before the season begins and three months before the WLOCP.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
What exactly is the order in the spectrum of win-loss?
My guess:
Win
Likely Win
Probable Win
Possible Win
Push
Possible Loss
Probable Loss
Likely Loss
Loss
The only two I’m confused on and could have backwards is likely and probable. Also, I don’t recall ever seeing you use a push, but if you did, there is at least one place, and as many as 4 or 5 that would be appropriate as a push on UGA’s schedule this year. I know, I know, that would be a cop out. But seriously, South Carolina, Arkansas, Auburn, and Tech could all easily be called pushes. But I appreciate that you actually made a real prediction on each, and every one of those predictions are not ones I can argue against. I can argue for a push, or for a possible win if you said loss, or possible loss if you said win. But your predictions are just as solid. So I suppose it’s better you use the push sparingly (assuming you use it at all).
I do try not to use push
I did a couple of times last year, but it seemed like a cop-out so I dropped it.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
how is the game against Florida a probable win?
it’s possible but unlikely
Beware Newyorkers, Jason Heyward has arrived, he will rob A-rod of 100 homeruns, and will bring at least 5 world series trophies to the great city of Atlanta
oops I was just looking at Kentucky not Florida
Beware Newyorkers, Jason Heyward has arrived, he will rob A-rod of 100 homeruns, and will bring at least 5 world series trophies to the great city of Atlanta
All the complaints against Murray go equally well for Brantley
Minus the fact that Brantley has played mop-up duty in a few games (notably the Kentucky game sans Tebow). For all the people who are picking Florida to go #1 in the East, burning the Murray bridge precludes anyone making it safely over the Brantley bridge, either.
one major difference
Brantley has been running the UF offense in practice for over 2 years…..and has been throwing to the guys who will be his top WRs this season. Murray simply can’t have the same repertoire with his receivers having never taken a college snap.
I’m not sold on Brantely just yet because he hasn’t really played against starting defenses much, if at all. If I was betting on the two however, I would call Brantley a much safer bet than Murray.
And
Significant or not, Brantley has taken some snaps at QB in the SEC. There’s no doubt that he used to the crowds, the speed of the game, etc. There’s plenty of differences, in addition to the fact that no two programs or situations are alike. You can’t just go Murray = Brantley.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
Georgia versus South Carolina
Here’s what I think will be interesting: Georgia’s front seven vs. USC’s O line. Both are very large question marks headed into the season. The Gamecocks were a bit susceptible to sacks last year, and Georgia’s defense will be geared more toward sacks this year. But early in the season, Georgia’s defense will still be figuring things out in the new scheme and may, I’m afraid, subject us to the short pass horrors we saw so much of last year. As is always the case, things will be different as the season progresses, but especially with these particular units. I can very easily see wear and tear making USC’s O line worse and experience making UGA’s 3-4 better (hey, I’m a Georgia guy). But how they’ll match up on 11 September is a complete mystery. I am deeply concerned about the combination of inexperience and midday Columbia heat.
Let’s face it; at times last year, Georgia just didn’t look like a very good football team. They obviously were a good team overall; you don’t go 8-5 overall in the SEC without being one.
Yeah man. Good teams get blasted by a mediocre Tennessee team and lose at home to Kentucky. I know this is an SEC site and you’re supposed to talk about how tough you are, but 4-4 in the SEC doesn’t make you a good team. Arkansas was their best conference win, and for all that love that Arky gets, they still went 3-5.
So what does that say about a team that got blasted by a team that was 3-5 in the SEC, then got defeated by a team that lost to a team that went 4-4 in the SEC?
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
yeah but considering
there were only 3 teams last year with winning conference records, it’s hard to say that anyone other than Bama and UF had any impressive conference wins.

by 







