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Preparing for BlogPoll: What Do I Do With ...

Every year as I sit down to start thinking about the preseason BlogPoll ballot, there are a few teams that I can't figure out what to do with. Well, actually, there's the entire ACC and then a few other teams that I can't figure out what to do with. A few examples for 2010, with your input more than welcome:

BOISE STATE (14-0, 8-0 WAC)
The Broncos will fall in a very narrow window, but it's still a significant difference: Are they a Top 2 team or a Top 5 team? To me, this is a big deal. As a general rule, I spend more time on my Top 2 spots in the preseason ballot than on any other decision. It is as much an "honor," if you want to call it that, as I can bestow. (How much of an honor any team gets from one blogger's opinion is an open question. Or really not; it's probably not much.) By now you know all the reasons to have Boise State ranked high: 20 returning starters from a team that went undefeated and surprised your humble correspondent by defeating TCU in the Fiesta Bowl. But are they good enough to be ranked No. 2 ahead of 118 other teams? Or No. 1 ahead of 119 others? To an extent, it comes down to Alabama, Boise, Ohio State and several wild cards.

CONNECTICUT (8-5, 3-4 Big East)
I don't do a straight power poll or a straight projection poll for the preseason ballot. It's a bit of each. On the power poll side, UConn lost its five games last year by a combined 15 points (something South Carolina players appeared to be unaware of as they played the Huskies in the Papajohns.com Bowl) and has 16 starters returning. Of course, they won four games (Ohio, Baylor, Notre Dame and South Florida) by a combined 20 points. On the projection side of things, the Huskies play in the Big East, and the most notable nonconference games are at Michigan, at Temple and Vanderbilt. Michigan has been -- um, slightly off -- in the Rich Rodriguez Era (as I'm sure you've heard); Temple has turned into a good mid-major, but it's still a mid-major; and everyone reading this blog probably knows the country music song that is Vanderbilt. Weak schedule, but a chance to go undefeated if they win the major Big East games. So my instinct is to put them maybe near the end of the Top 20 or in the 20s; but I can't help thinking that might even be a bit high. Or that if I'm going to take a flyer on a team like UConn, I ought to go all in and put them in the Top 10 or Top 15.

Star-divide

FLORIDA STATE (7-6, 4-4 ACC)
Oh, I don't want to go down that rabbit hole. It has ended in death and destruction for so many preseason prognosticators. But -- POINTS!!! They scored a lot of points last year: 34 against Miami, 54 against BYU, 44 against Georgia Tech, 30 against UNC, 33 against West Virginia. There was inconsistency there, though; they scored just 19 against Jacksonville State(!), lost to USF after putting a single touchdown on the board and were shut down by Florida. (A lot of teams were, but I'm saying.) They return nine starters from that offense. Bonus: The coaching changes. From a projection perspective, they have plenty of opportunities to impress; the Seminoles go to Norman and play BYU and Florida in Tallahassee. But they're in the erratic ACC and they're still Florida State. So the first question is where I should rank them, and I'm not sure where to put them if I do.

OKLAHOMA (8-5, 5-3 Big XII)
There's no Sam Bradford this year -- although that's not really all that different than last year -- and that's five losses in the loss column there, including a Texas Tech shellacking. And don't forget that Dr. Saturday has issued a moderate warning about overranking the Sooners this year. Then again, preseason guru Phil Steele has Oklahoma at No. 1 -- No. 1! They're not going to get the top ranking in my ballot, but it's hard to see leaving the Sooners off entirely. And they have a schedule just strong enough to get them points without being strong enough to be a murderer's row: Florida State and at Cincinnati make the nonconference slate respectable, while the Big XII South is always strong. If they get some of the breaks that they missed last year, the Sooners could be Top 10 material. If they don't, the might not be able to make the ballot, much less a good spot on it. Top 15?

OREGON (10-3, 8-1 Pac-10)
Pac-10 Champions, plenty of starters returning, a relatively easy nonconference schedule that still contains a brand name (Tennessee) -- what's not to like? An offseason of total chaos, for one, including the dismissal of the starting quarterback legal trouble for the starting running back. Of course, this is a team that rebounded from LeGarrette Blount's early start to his boxing career to win a conference title, so maybe that's nothing. In other words, there would be an argument for putting them in the Top 10 or even Top 5 -- if it weren't for the bizarre offseason. There would be an argument for not ranking them at all -- if they hadn't been so good last year. Do you split the difference and call them a Top 15 team? Or go with one or the other and hope you're right? (Weird but true: The Ducks lost all three games in 2009 by nine points.)

So ... any thoughts?

0 recs  |  Comment 17 comments |

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2 cents

Boise is a Top 10 team. Somewhere in the 6-10 range. If they beat VA Tech, they’ll deserve whatever increase they get.

UConn deserves to be ranked. Maybe the last one in.

FSU deserves to be ranked. Maybe the second to last one in.

OU is a Top 5 team. They’ll win the Big 12 South, and will face a Top 5 Nebraska for a bid in the BCS title game.

Oregon…who knows. Somewhere in the mid-teens seems right.

"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Hawkeye State

by Bama Hawkeye on Jul 29, 2010 4:00 PM EDT reply actions  

I agree with you on all but Oregon

I think somewhere around 20 would be better placement with them having to suddenly break in a new quarterback for this year.

by Jalakin on Jul 29, 2010 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Before I give Boise the right time of day......

..let’s see them beat the TOUGH teams week in and week out. It’s easy to get a top-10 ranking when you’re constantly beating cupcakes.

And after that comment their prez just made thinking they’re too good for an in-state rivalry, I hope the Hokies beat the living crap out of them. Then maybe they’ll stop all their whining.

Check out my "Talk of the Town" blog at www.gatorenvy.com

by O-town Gator on Jul 30, 2010 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with all...

Boise should be ranked at number 10 and no higher at the beginning of the year because they are in WAC—this still gives them an opportunity to get into a BCS bowl and even NC if things fall into place and if they go undefeated.

by mjtig on Jul 31, 2010 5:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

it's easy

you beat the living crap outta each of them

Beware Newyorkers, Jason Heyward has arrived, he will rob A-rod of 100 homeruns, and will bring at least 5 world series trophies to the great city of Atlanta

by southman on Jul 29, 2010 7:30 PM EDT reply actions  

If you're thinking of ranking Florida State, check the calendar.

If it shows you’re in the 21st century, don’t rank them.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Jul 29, 2010 7:57 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Also...

I like Florida State to improve quite a bit, thinking 10-2ish under Jimbo Fisher… just think Bowden lost the team a few years ago but they still have top 15 talent.

There will be a Big East team that inexplicably starts 8-0ish, and I really think either Michigan beats UConn in week one or they survive until 10/29(WVU) or 12/4(@USF). Surprisingly, I’d go with South Florida to win the Big East (BJ Daniels should make a lot of progress between his FR and SO years)… but that Florida game might really look bad… or they might look like a quality team after that game.

As far as Oregon, I’m not sold on Chip Kelly yet… ~15 seems good for now, with the potential for a huge swing either way a few weeks in.

As far as Boise goes, I don’t see anyone who deserves #2 ahead of them right now… and I suspect Alabama would have trouble keeping the score low versus them, although I also believe Bama would end with >300 rushing yards in that game.

by Caban on Jul 29, 2010 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Can't rank UCONN

how is it even possible to lose 4 games in the big east? pretty sure Vandy could do at least that well

by WILDashellCAT on Jul 30, 2010 12:22 AM EDT reply actions  

You lose several games by just a couple of points

UConn was not a bad team last year. They probably weren’t quite as good as they looked in the PapaJohns.com bowl, but that’s what happens when one South Carolina player says after the game that they expected to win just because Carolina is from the SEC and UConn is from the Big East.

Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.

by cocknfire on Jul 30, 2010 2:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Ranking the question marks

Boise State shouldn’t be number two when their season hinges on the first game of the season. We know they play only two teams (maybe just one) that will ranked at the end of the season, Oregon State and VT. Just b/c they beat OU back in January 2007, everyone thinks they deserve to be ranked in the top 10 since they continue to beat teams in the regular season that are the dregs of the FBS. Too bad they weren’t offered to join the PAC-10 then we could begin to find out how good they are in the next few years. Rank them number 7.

UConn can be number 25, looking back they lost their games in all close contests, after having a player murdered during the season.

FSU is probably a team that should be ranked between 15-20 and then see where they go from there.

Oklahoma is a top five team.

Oregon is now about a team between 12-7. It’ll be interesting to see how they play this year especially against Tennessee in Knoxville that should set the tone for the rest of the season

by brandond03 on Jul 30, 2010 9:53 AM EDT reply actions  

Boise State.

It’s ok, you can rank us #1. Because by mid-November we’ll be ranked #6 if we’re still undefeated, anyway.

"Everyone counted us out. I don't know why they keep doing that." -- Kyle Wilson

by Loque on Jul 30, 2010 10:58 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

So what?

All you’ll do is whine, anyway. Boise State = biggest bunch of whiners and crybabies in college football.

Check out my "Talk of the Town" blog at www.gatorenvy.com

by O-town Gator on Aug 1, 2010 7:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

we don't have to whine

we can settle it on the field!!!!

oh wait.

by killtacular on Aug 2, 2010 4:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

Boise in the top 3

UConn probably about 19.

Florida State not at all.

OU I say about 15

Oregon 9 or 10

by mypisceannature on Jul 31, 2010 7:31 AM EDT reply actions  

Boise between 7-10.

Uconn 20ish. I don’t have them in my own top 25, but I could see an argument for it.

FSU will be better: 12-17 range.

Oklahoma: They are in my top six.

Oregon: This is a tough one. I’ll say somewhere in the range of 8-15 would be appropriate.

...just apologize for not thanking me.

by kidbourbon on Aug 3, 2010 11:30 AM EDT reply actions  

Boise State: top 2
Oklahoma: top 5
Oregon: top 10
Florida State: top 15
Connecticut: top 20

by doker on Aug 3, 2010 12:52 PM EDT reply actions  

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