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Charting Where the SEC Was in 2009

In preparation for making my 2010 picks, I wanted to make sure I had a precise handle on where everyone was in 2009. It's been a few months since that season ended, after all.

So to help me visualize things, I made some charts that illustrate where everyone was on offense, defense, and in a combination of the two. Figuring y'all might be interested in seeing them, I present them now. These only factor in SEC play, excluding all non-conference tilts.

OFFENSE

On average, SEC teams scored 23.20 points per game and gained 346.08 yards per game. Those values represent the axes on the chart. The center of each logo represents each team's average points and yards per game.

Offense2009_medium

As you can see, an number of teams were clustered right around each other at a little above average in both points and yards. Georgia and Arkansas stand out as the scoring leaders, while Ole Miss was the yardage champ. Mississippi State was about average in both, while South Carolina was average in yards but lacking in points. LSU and Kentucky were nearly identical.

Finally, note that Vanderbilt is barely on the chart at all. That's how far behind everyone else the Commodores' offense was in 2009. I wanted to use a smaller scale to better differentiate other teams, but VU is why I couldn't. It's no wonder that Vandy went winless in '09.

DEFENSE

Star-divide

The average points and yardage allowed is identical to the average points and yards gained because this is a closed set of data. Every point scored is a point allowed by someone else and so forth. The scale on this chart is identical to the one above.

Defense2009_medium

Not surprisingly, the two divisional champs (and national title contenders) were well ahead of everyone else on this chart. Florida allowed the fewest yards per game, while Alabama was the scoring defense champ. LSU was about third, while Ole Miss, Tennessee, and South Carolina were pretty close. Vandy did better in scoring defense than it probably should have.

What's left were the relatively porous defenses. Mississippi State, Kentucky, and Auburn weren't too great and were in some ways around equal, and Georgia and Arkansas stand out as the worst two. When projecting 2010, just keep in mind which of those two overhauled its defensive coaching staff and which didn't.

Also of interest to me is how much more linear the relationship between points and yardage is on the defense chart than the offense chart. The offense one is a bit more noisy.

OVERALL

In this final chart, I combined the average scoring and total offensive rank for each team and the average scoring and total defense ranks for each team. The scale is unique from the other two. The axes represent an average ranking of sixth in each category. Right of center is good for offense; above center is good for defense. In other words, the upper right quadrant is where you want to be on this chart.

Overall2009_medium

The results are for the most part what you'd expect.

Alabama, Florida, and Ole Miss were the only residents of the best quadrant, with Tennessee in the positive for defense while perfectly average on offense. South Carolina and LSU were in the "good defense, questionable offense" category. Auburn, Georgia, and Arkansas were in the "good offense, questionable defense" category. The bottom three of the league were in the "questionable on both" category.

If it hadn't been said already, this shows just what an opportunity that the Rebels missed this year. Their defense was roughly on par with LSU's, but the offense was much better. Yet, Ole Miss was a game behind LSU in the SEC West standings and was even fortunate to be there what with Les Miles's stupid spike call at the end of that game.

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Comments

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Nice chart

It does represent how far ahead Florida and Bama were and how far behind Vandy was last year. It also shows how all over the place the other nine teams were.

by brandond03 on Jul 15, 2010 11:43 AM EDT reply actions  

Very cool chart

Great visual representation. Makes things a lot clearer about where teams stood.

And the spike call wasn’t the stupid part. The stupid part was letting about 20 seconds tick off the clock before calling timeout on the play before. The spike was the icing on top of the stupidity cake, but even if Miles DOESN’T call the spike, there’s no way LSU gets the play off anyway. I mean, rip the guy for his horrid clock management in the last minute of the Ole Miss game… but at least rip him for the right reason. It was the failure to call timeout immediately that was the true coaching boner.

Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!

by Poseur on Jul 15, 2010 12:07 PM EDT reply actions  

I know it doesn't really matter

But I keep seeing people talk about the spike, and it’s beginning to irritate me. The spike wasn’t really the problem.

Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!

by Poseur on Jul 15, 2010 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Correct me if I'm wrong,

but the spike was sort of an ad hoc reaction to the hail mary not working, was it not? The play just beforehand looked as if Les was gunning for the endzone.

by The Ghost of Jay Cutler on Jul 15, 2010 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah

He had no plan for converting a first down but not scoring a TD. But, really, what was he going to do with 1 second on the clock? He didn’t even get the snap off anyway. And there was no reason to only have 1 second on the clock. If he calls timeout in a timely fashion, LSU has time to spike the ball and kick the field goal. I’m not saying he didn’t horribly bungle the final minute… he most certainly did. But people get what he bungled wrong. It’s been sticking in my craw recently. No idea why.

Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!

by Poseur on Jul 15, 2010 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh, I agree.

Nobody will ever know why he didn’t call a timeout when he could have.

by The Ghost of Jay Cutler on Jul 15, 2010 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think part of it also was the "I didn't call for the spike" claim

When the video clearly showed he did call for the spike. That’s when it became a classic.

Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.

by cocknfire on Jul 16, 2010 2:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah they were basically treating that play

As the last play of the game.

And of course, Poseur’s right about the timeout. Really that whole closing drive featured some baffling calls.

by Billy Gomila on Jul 15, 2010 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

The screen pass was almost as bad as the non-timeout

Then again, some coaches like to end a half with haphazardly run plays in the middle of the field, just out of field goal position, with less than a minute left, and no contingency plan nor sense of urgency. I see Mack Brown and Greg Davis nodding in agreement.

"That rug really tied the room together."

by pantsfucious on Jul 15, 2010 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Don't you understand?

The screen pass had failed earlier meaning THE DEFENSE WILL NEVER EXPECT IT! Such is the genius of Crowton – the only OC on earth who keeps calling plays that fail over plays that work in order to keep the opposing coaches guessing. Or giggling. One of the two.

Seriously, I really hate Crowton. I hope Billy Gonzales is currently plotting a coup.

Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!

by Poseur on Jul 16, 2010 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

Until you learn that Gonzalez was in charge of Florida’s FAILtastic red zone offense last year.

Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog

by Year2 on Jul 16, 2010 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

Still an improvement

If LSU’s offense only sucked at one thing, it would be a dramatic improvement. Did you see the Georgia or MSU games? Our red zone offense was pretty FAILtastic as well

Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!

by Poseur on Jul 16, 2010 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm told he also called it

In 2008 though, when things seem to run a whole lot smoother in the red zone?

by Billy Gomila on Jul 16, 2010 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

He did

But then didn’t adapt when things weren’t working so well in ‘09. Still kept calling things over and over (i.e. Tebow smash) even when they weren’t working, which sounds like a complaint I’ve heard about Crowton somewhere…

Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog

by Year2 on Jul 16, 2010 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hell

We’ll settle for just getting the WR’s to catch better.

by Billy Gomila on Jul 16, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

But Ole Miss does really poorly on the third chart...

“Picks thrown to defenders not even covering your target receiver”

by OxfordAndrew on Jul 15, 2010 1:32 PM EDT reply actions  

so you're saying that 'Ole Miss has the most yardage

and Georgia has the most points per game am I correct?

...in dixie land i'll take my stand to root for Atlanta

by southman on Jul 15, 2010 2:22 PM EDT reply actions  

Yes

Ole Miss had the most yards per game, and Georgia and Arkansas tied for the most points per game.

Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog

by Year2 on Jul 15, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

wow lucky guess

...in dixie land i'll take my stand to root for Atlanta

by southman on Jul 15, 2010 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

do yards for other teams db's count?

cause then snead would be our champ in that case

Way down South in Mississippi... the Rebs kick your ass.

by Blue Chip Prospect on Jul 15, 2010 3:07 PM EDT reply actions  

Great info, Year 2

"The North isn't a place. It's just a direction out of the South."
--Roy Blount, Jr.

by animalcracker on Jul 15, 2010 3:39 PM EDT reply actions  

So what you're saying is . . .

. . . offense sells tickets but defense wins championships.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Jul 15, 2010 4:51 PM EDT reply actions  

Except Miami

Big improvement in offense resulted in a half-empty stadium still. But, it’s Miami. They didn’t sell out every home game in 2001 when they were perhaps the best team of the last 10 years.

Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog

by Year2 on Jul 15, 2010 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wow

USC had a below average defense. I was not expecting that.

stuff 'bout stuff.

by silver82blade on Jul 15, 2010 10:12 PM EDT reply actions  

It was above average at yardage, but not at points. I’d bet that the offensive struggles and turnovers had something to do with that.

Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog

by Year2 on Jul 16, 2010 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

I wonder if there's a regression to the mean element in this

Obviously, it wouldn’t work season-to-season, because of the turnover in the rosters (except with a team like South Carolina, which returns almost the entire team). But I wonder if, say, a team had a chart like Vanderbilt’s defense at the midpoint of the season, they could expect to begin allowing a few more points. I’m not sure it would be worth the work to do it, but it’s just a thought …

Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.

by cocknfire on Jul 16, 2010 2:29 AM EDT reply actions  

Not only are teams different from year to year, but also 11-14 games isn’t nearly enough to expect a mean-regressive statistic to actually regress to the mean.

by duker on Jul 16, 2010 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

True

Hadn’t thought about that, but it usually takes more time to regress than that. Which is why it’s a lot harder to be a “lucky” baseball division winner than a “lucky” football division/conference winner.

Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.

by cocknfire on Jul 16, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yep

And the Yankees’, Angels’, Dodgers’, Cardinals’, Mets’, and Phillies’ payrolls help too.

by duker on Jul 19, 2010 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

Excellent work

Putting it in this graphical format (as well as your summation) really does illustrate how very much of a disappointment the Ole Miss Rebels were in 2009. It would be interesting to transpose these with turnovers, as Snead single-handedly lost some games for the Rebels, while McElroy, for instance, only coughed it up 4 times.

"Orators are most vehement when their cause is weak" Marcus Tullius Cicero

by Stuck in the Plains on Jul 16, 2010 11:10 AM EDT reply actions  

It’s interesting to see if conclusions can be drawn from this. For example, on the offense, if you drew a line as y=x, since that seems to be the general trend, teams below that scored less per yard than the average, meaning they were thwarted by turnovers, poor red zone offense, or both? Or a team like LSU or Kentucky – did they rely on the big play a lot?

I think it’s really cool how the slope of the trendline (especially on defense) would be close to 323.08/23.2 = 14.9, meaning 7 points =~ 100 yards. Doesn’t that fit nicely.

by duker on Jul 16, 2010 1:34 PM EDT reply actions  

Good catch

I ran a linear regression on the defense data in Excel, and the slope of the line ended up at 0.118. So yeah, 100 yards equaled about 1.18 points. The slope in 2008 was 0.153, and in 2007 it was 0.111.

Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog

by Year2 on Jul 16, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

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