Charting Where the SEC Was in 2009
In preparation for making my 2010 picks, I wanted to make sure I had a precise handle on where everyone was in 2009. It's been a few months since that season ended, after all.
So to help me visualize things, I made some charts that illustrate where everyone was on offense, defense, and in a combination of the two. Figuring y'all might be interested in seeing them, I present them now. These only factor in SEC play, excluding all non-conference tilts.
OFFENSE
On average, SEC teams scored 23.20 points per game and gained 346.08 yards per game. Those values represent the axes on the chart. The center of each logo represents each team's average points and yards per game.
As you can see, an number of teams were clustered right around each other at a little above average in both points and yards. Georgia and Arkansas stand out as the scoring leaders, while Ole Miss was the yardage champ. Mississippi State was about average in both, while South Carolina was average in yards but lacking in points. LSU and Kentucky were nearly identical.
Finally, note that Vanderbilt is barely on the chart at all. That's how far behind everyone else the Commodores' offense was in 2009. I wanted to use a smaller scale to better differentiate other teams, but VU is why I couldn't. It's no wonder that Vandy went winless in '09.
DEFENSE
The average points and yardage allowed is identical to the average points and yards gained because this is a closed set of data. Every point scored is a point allowed by someone else and so forth. The scale on this chart is identical to the one above.
Not surprisingly, the two divisional champs (and national title contenders) were well ahead of everyone else on this chart. Florida allowed the fewest yards per game, while Alabama was the scoring defense champ. LSU was about third, while Ole Miss, Tennessee, and South Carolina were pretty close. Vandy did better in scoring defense than it probably should have.
What's left were the relatively porous defenses. Mississippi State, Kentucky, and Auburn weren't too great and were in some ways around equal, and Georgia and Arkansas stand out as the worst two. When projecting 2010, just keep in mind which of those two overhauled its defensive coaching staff and which didn't.
Also of interest to me is how much more linear the relationship between points and yardage is on the defense chart than the offense chart. The offense one is a bit more noisy.
OVERALL
In this final chart, I combined the average scoring and total offensive rank for each team and the average scoring and total defense ranks for each team. The scale is unique from the other two. The axes represent an average ranking of sixth in each category. Right of center is good for offense; above center is good for defense. In other words, the upper right quadrant is where you want to be on this chart.
The results are for the most part what you'd expect.
Alabama, Florida, and Ole Miss were the only residents of the best quadrant, with Tennessee in the positive for defense while perfectly average on offense. South Carolina and LSU were in the "good defense, questionable offense" category. Auburn, Georgia, and Arkansas were in the "good offense, questionable defense" category. The bottom three of the league were in the "questionable on both" category.
If it hadn't been said already, this shows just what an opportunity that the Rebels missed this year. Their defense was roughly on par with LSU's, but the offense was much better. Yet, Ole Miss was a game behind LSU in the SEC West standings and was even fortunate to be there what with Les Miles's stupid spike call at the end of that game.
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Nice chart
It does represent how far ahead Florida and Bama were and how far behind Vandy was last year. It also shows how all over the place the other nine teams were.
Very cool chart
Great visual representation. Makes things a lot clearer about where teams stood.
And the spike call wasn’t the stupid part. The stupid part was letting about 20 seconds tick off the clock before calling timeout on the play before. The spike was the icing on top of the stupidity cake, but even if Miles DOESN’T call the spike, there’s no way LSU gets the play off anyway. I mean, rip the guy for his horrid clock management in the last minute of the Ole Miss game… but at least rip him for the right reason. It was the failure to call timeout immediately that was the true coaching boner.
Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!
I know it doesn't really matter
But I keep seeing people talk about the spike, and it’s beginning to irritate me. The spike wasn’t really the problem.
Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!
Correct me if I'm wrong,
but the spike was sort of an ad hoc reaction to the hail mary not working, was it not? The play just beforehand looked as if Les was gunning for the endzone.
Red Cup Rebellion - Changing the Culture of Ole Miss Athletics
Take a picture, trick.
by The Ghost of Jay Cutler on Jul 15, 2010 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
He had no plan for converting a first down but not scoring a TD. But, really, what was he going to do with 1 second on the clock? He didn’t even get the snap off anyway. And there was no reason to only have 1 second on the clock. If he calls timeout in a timely fashion, LSU has time to spike the ball and kick the field goal. I’m not saying he didn’t horribly bungle the final minute… he most certainly did. But people get what he bungled wrong. It’s been sticking in my craw recently. No idea why.
Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!
Oh, I agree.
Nobody will ever know why he didn’t call a timeout when he could have.
Red Cup Rebellion - Changing the Culture of Ole Miss Athletics
Take a picture, trick.
by The Ghost of Jay Cutler on Jul 15, 2010 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I think part of it also was the "I didn't call for the spike" claim
When the video clearly showed he did call for the spike. That’s when it became a classic.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
Yeah they were basically treating that play
As the last play of the game.
And of course, Poseur’s right about the timeout. Really that whole closing drive featured some baffling calls.
by Billy Gomila on Jul 15, 2010 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
The screen pass was almost as bad as the non-timeout
Then again, some coaches like to end a half with haphazardly run plays in the middle of the field, just out of field goal position, with less than a minute left, and no contingency plan nor sense of urgency. I see Mack Brown and Greg Davis nodding in agreement.
"That rug really tied the room together."
by pantsfucious on Jul 15, 2010 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Don't you understand?
The screen pass had failed earlier meaning THE DEFENSE WILL NEVER EXPECT IT! Such is the genius of Crowton – the only OC on earth who keeps calling plays that fail over plays that work in order to keep the opposing coaches guessing. Or giggling. One of the two.
Seriously, I really hate Crowton. I hope Billy Gonzales is currently plotting a coup.
Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!
Until you learn that Gonzalez was in charge of Florida’s FAILtastic red zone offense last year.
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Still an improvement
If LSU’s offense only sucked at one thing, it would be a dramatic improvement. Did you see the Georgia or MSU games? Our red zone offense was pretty FAILtastic as well
Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!
I'm told he also called it
In 2008 though, when things seem to run a whole lot smoother in the red zone?
by Billy Gomila on Jul 16, 2010 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
He did
But then didn’t adapt when things weren’t working so well in ‘09. Still kept calling things over and over (i.e. Tebow smash) even when they weren’t working, which sounds like a complaint I’ve heard about Crowton somewhere…
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Hell
We’ll settle for just getting the WR’s to catch better.
by Billy Gomila on Jul 16, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
But Ole Miss does really poorly on the third chart...
“Picks thrown to defenders not even covering your target receiver”
so you're saying that 'Ole Miss has the most yardage
and Georgia has the most points per game am I correct?
...in dixie land i'll take my stand to root for Atlanta
Yes
Ole Miss had the most yards per game, and Georgia and Arkansas tied for the most points per game.
Team Speed Kills
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wow lucky guess
...in dixie land i'll take my stand to root for Atlanta
do yards for other teams db's count?
cause then snead would be our champ in that case
Way down South in Mississippi... the Rebs kick your ass.
by Blue Chip Prospect on Jul 15, 2010 3:07 PM EDT reply actions
Great info, Year 2
"The North isn't a place. It's just a direction out of the South."
--Roy Blount, Jr.
So what you're saying is . . .
. . . offense sells tickets but defense wins championships.
Go 'Dawgs!
Except Miami
Big improvement in offense resulted in a half-empty stadium still. But, it’s Miami. They didn’t sell out every home game in 2001 when they were perhaps the best team of the last 10 years.
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It was above average at yardage, but not at points. I’d bet that the offensive struggles and turnovers had something to do with that.
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I wonder if there's a regression to the mean element in this
Obviously, it wouldn’t work season-to-season, because of the turnover in the rosters (except with a team like South Carolina, which returns almost the entire team). But I wonder if, say, a team had a chart like Vanderbilt’s defense at the midpoint of the season, they could expect to begin allowing a few more points. I’m not sure it would be worth the work to do it, but it’s just a thought …
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
Not only are teams different from year to year, but also 11-14 games isn’t nearly enough to expect a mean-regressive statistic to actually regress to the mean.
True
Hadn’t thought about that, but it usually takes more time to regress than that. Which is why it’s a lot harder to be a “lucky” baseball division winner than a “lucky” football division/conference winner.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
Excellent work
Putting it in this graphical format (as well as your summation) really does illustrate how very much of a disappointment the Ole Miss Rebels were in 2009. It would be interesting to transpose these with turnovers, as Snead single-handedly lost some games for the Rebels, while McElroy, for instance, only coughed it up 4 times.
"Orators are most vehement when their cause is weak" Marcus Tullius Cicero
by Stuck in the Plains on Jul 16, 2010 11:10 AM EDT reply actions
It’s interesting to see if conclusions can be drawn from this. For example, on the offense, if you drew a line as y=x, since that seems to be the general trend, teams below that scored less per yard than the average, meaning they were thwarted by turnovers, poor red zone offense, or both? Or a team like LSU or Kentucky – did they rely on the big play a lot?
I think it’s really cool how the slope of the trendline (especially on defense) would be close to 323.08/23.2 = 14.9, meaning 7 points =~ 100 yards. Doesn’t that fit nicely.
Good catch
I ran a linear regression on the defense data in Excel, and the slope of the line ended up at 0.118. So yeah, 100 yards equaled about 1.18 points. The slope in 2008 was 0.153, and in 2007 it was 0.111.
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