Brace Yourself for the Pac-16, Death of Big 12
Supposedly this is pretty solid as far as expansion rumors go: the Pac-10 will seriously consider inviting Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Colorado into the fold this weekend. Supposedly Fox would then organize a Pac-16 Network in the same way it did for the Big Ten. Presumably if this happened, the Big Ten would finally get around to inviting Nebraska and/or Missouri and who knows which Big East teams.
Apparently the only hangup is A&M, which reportedly is more interested in the going to the SEC should the Big 12 die. The SEC would then have to invite at least one ACC team to bring on the Aggies (because 13-team conferences don't work).
We just finished the SEC meetings and no one seemed interested in expansion. Should these dominoes fall, I wonder if the conference would feel the need to go ahead with it anyway. I personally still say no: let the other guys play with thermite first and then decide later. It's not like even if the ACC added four Big East/CUSA teams the SEC couldn't take whoever it wanted.
UPDATE 6:37 PM
1. The ADs of Texas A&M and Oklahoma don't sound interested in killing the Big 12 preemptively. A&M guy specifically says he doesn't want to go to the Pac-10.
2. The 12 SEC presidents will discuss expansion tomorrow, but don't plan to be the first mover in the expansion game.
UPDATE 2, 6:45 PM
As of right now, this link will get you the whole article sans pay wall.
UPDATE 3 7:10 PM
Slive speaks. He won't comment on the report, but maintains that the SEC is looking at the matter of expansion actively.
Key quote: the current TV deals make the SEC the "most widely distributed conference in the country. … We don’t need to get larger for the purpose of distribution." So there you go, straight from the boss's mouth. You don't have to consider TV markets when talking SEC expansion.
UPDATE 4 9:00 PM
Where there's smoke...
The Colorado AD says that he and other school officials believes that six Big 12 schools will get Pac-10 invites as early as this weekend. He has not talked to Pac-10 officials, and Pac-10 commish Larry Scott has denied the report.
This to me sounds like either A) someone told this guy about the Rivals report and he's repeating that, or B) he's talked to the the same sources that led to the Rivals report. It's significant that a Big 12 AD is giving credence to this rumor in some respect, but this is far from confirmation if you ask me.
almost 2 years ago
Year2
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A&M and UT
I really thought one didn’t go anywhere without the other, hence the reason Texas isn’t currently in the SEC. Also, Texas to Washington is a helluva long way.
It’s not that Texas and A&M always want to be together. It’s that the Texas State Legislature won’t agree to anything without both of them being taken care of. It won’t allow, for instance, Texas to go to the Pac-10 (thereby crippling the Big 12) without Texas A&M either getting a Pac-10 invite too or having a binding SEC invite on the table.
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This would be the exception to my agreement with you
If Texas and A&M are on the table, the SEC has to try to get them now. We can’t allow them to join the Pac-10 simply because the other expansion candidates (West Virginia, Clemson, FSU, Miami, Georgia Tech) aren’t as good a fit. I’d be fine with going to 14 for now — though figuring out how to make it work would be awful — if it was the only way to make sure we have a shot at Texas and A&M.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
One way to do it that I haven't fully thought out yet
Send Vanderbilt or Kentucky west in return for bring Alabama and Auburn into the East. That way we can preserve Alabama-Auburn and Alabama-Tennessee while making the West less of a killing field than it would be if it had Texas, A&M, LSU, Alabama AND Auburn in addition to Arkansas, Ole Miss and Mississippi State. Of course, then the East becomes a terrible division to try to win (Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama AND Auburn in addition to South Carolina and Vanderbilt/Kentucky). It’s going to be hard to figure it out, but you can’t just let Texas and A&M leave.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
A&M might be on the table, but Texas is not and likely never will be.
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I know we're having this argument elsewhere
But two points/questions
1.) Is academics really that big of a deal to UT? And is AAU membership the only metric they accept?
2.) Doesn’t money, culture, and geography play into this much more than academics?
“Academics” is really a euphemism for “research money.” The AAU is solely about research, which is why fantastic undergrad institutions like Notre Dame and Georgia aren’t in it.
Texas’ research expenditures in 2007 were north of $446 million, which put the school in 32nd place nationally. That should give you an idea of the kind of money at stake. Money, culture, and geography do come into play, but it’s mostly money and not just the athletic kind.
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I was just writing a clarification when you posted
I realize the importance of academics to UT and the amount of money involved here. But what I fail to see is how the research levels of other schools that UT plays football and baseball with is that important. Are people offering grants going to say “Oh dear heavens! This is an SEC team! NEVER!”? I doubt it.
I don’t know the whole story because I’m not a doctor or an engineer. I do know that “Ivy League” moves the needle as far as conference recognition goes, and I’m fairly certain that “Big Ten” does too (all 11 schools are in the AAU). For comparison, seven Big 12 schools are in the AAU (including Texas) and seven of the Pac-10 schools are too.
Texas thought it was a big enough deal to ask for admittance into both the Pac-10 and Big Ten back when the SWC is falling apart. I don’t think much has changed since.
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I’m still dubious that the people who hand me grant money are going to have that much recognition tied in to conference. They’re more likely to see “Oh, Michigan, they’re a good school.” Actually, they’re more likely to see “Oh, Michigan, they do algebra and combinatorics.”
STILL stopping every few minutes to realize "Whoa. The Saints won the Super Bowl."
Academics are a figleaf
Texas doesn’t want to join the SEC because it doesn’t want to join a conference with equal distribution of revenues. The Big 12 and the Pac-10 both have unequal distributions, which obviously helps Texas. They can talk about academics all they want, but they are really just trying to get the most amount of money.
A&M, being a medium-sized fish, isn’t as concerned with the unequal distribution issue and likely wants to join the SEC because it is a similar cultural fit. Since the money is likely the same no matter where they go, they can care about such things.
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Looks like Slive has been outmaneuvered
Nobody ever expected Jim Delaney to do anything more than shuffle deck chairs on the Titanic, but the Pac-10 move is potentially huge. Always watch the quiet guy.
It is kind of a quandary. On the one hand, I’m still not convinced 16 team conferences will work longterm, but if you wait around to find out, it might be too late. If we are going to get serious about expansion, A&M, Oklahoma, VT, and ____ are the best realistic candidates (assuming Texas is out).
For the _, I’d love to see the SEC go after North Carolina. They would probably say no for the same reason Texas is – they don’t want to give up their political clout. However, the SEC could throw enough money out there to make it them think about it. North Carolina adds a national brand, a new and growing market, a premier program in basketball, and a football program decent enough to be competitive without being so good that it makes the schedule a death march.
Texas is using academics as a smoke screen. They simply don’t want to go from being the decision maker to one of a handful of power players in the SEC. Even in the Pac-10, Texas would immediately be the premier program in the conference.
by GwinnettGamecock on Jun 4, 2010 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Slive's not been outmaneuvered
He’s said all along that the SEC won’t make the first move. His maneuver is no maneuver.
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Let the other conferences make the first mistake
The only big fish in this is Texas. And I doubt they make a move without putting feelers out to every conference (or at least the SEC and the Big 10) to make sure they’re making the best move for their school.
If all that happens is the Big 10 adds a Missouri or Pitt or Rutgers, there’s no need for the SEC to even react.
by Billy Gomila on Jun 4, 2010 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
UNC wont leave because of SEC basketball. They want to stay in ACC.
"Sympathy has expired Longhorns" WallaceWade04
by The Voice of Reason on Jun 4, 2010 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah...
but the fact it will piss off bisher will help him deal.
Roll 'Bama Roll: The Champagne of 'Bama Blogs.
Well, they are the most recent school to join the AAU.
STILL stopping every few minutes to realize "Whoa. The Saints won the Super Bowl."
I like the idea of the Aggies in the SEC...
… primarily because I love the venue and the tradition they bring.
I just don’t think it makes economic sense for the SEC to expand unless it gets Texas, however. You’re going to have to slice the pie 14 or 16 ways instead of 12 currently, so how is the additional money going to come in to make up that shortfall if you’re only adding A&M, and then, say, Clemson and/or Ga. Tech and/or FSU?
A&M brings in the Houston market and their incredibly loyal fan base, but Clemson and Tech add no significant TV markets, no significant national fan base, and no significant marketing/TV attractiveness. (Well, unless you consider replays of Rudy on TNT marketing prowess. FSU would be a good addition if they can get back on their feet, but that’s a big “if.”
VT would bring Virginia and, based on my albeit limited experience of the last 2 and a half years, Charlotte as well. Not a bad chunk of the mid Atlantic region, and it would be a cultural fit as well. VT and A&M might be enough.
I hate to say this, but FSU isn’t that far off. The offense was fantastic last year (best in the ACC), so it’s just a matter of getting the defense turned around. I don’t know if Mike Stoops specifically can do it, but when you’re a power team that can pull from the cream of the Florida recruiting crop, you’re never more than a year or two away talent-wise. FSU would be more of a national play than A&M and VT because the Semis are still a huge TV pull nationally.
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the obvious answer is notre dame
not really. but lord would the big ten get their panties in a twist if it came to pass.
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Does UVa have the political clout
to block a VT move? The state government is the reason the Hokies were thrown a lifeline to the ACC in the first place.
by GwinnettGamecock on Jun 4, 2010 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Exactly.
I think it’s for this reason that VT would never leave for the SEC… it would not be politically feasible after the state of Va. made such a political fuss to get them in the ACC.
WVU would come to the SEC before VT.
by vineyarddawg on Jun 4, 2010 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Question
What happens if only 5 of the schools accept the PAC10s offer? Does the PAC10 still take them?
by janepriceestrada on Jun 4, 2010 9:16 AM EDT reply actions
Depends on the one that says no
If it’s one of the Texas schools or Oklahoma, the whole thing falls apart. If it’s Oklahoma State, then the Pac-10 calls up Utah. Colorado won’t be the one saying no alone.
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Agree.
The two lynchpins in the deal are Texas and Oklahoma. The other 4 schools are just the cost of getting UT and OU to move. It might be oversimplification, but I think the Pac 10 couldn’t give a shit if Texas Tech, aTm, or Okie State said no. As Year2 said, they’d just go pick off Utah, or maybe even Boise State.
The only one of those schools that might say no, though, is A&M, if they can get the SEC to offer membership to them. Those other schools are not attractive enough to other conferences, and basically have to ride their big brothers’ coattails if they want a slice of the cash and a seat at the BCS table. As for Colorado, they would probably prefer the Pac 10 to the Big 12 geographically, so they’re probably happy at the prospect.
My question is what happens to Kansas in this deal. Nobody really cares about K-State or Iowa State, but Kansas is poised to drop off a cliff if they’re stuck with regressing back to the Conference USA or something like that. My guess is that they’ll just be SOL.
Speaking of Colorado...
… I’ve always wondered why the Pac 10 didn’t offer to Colorado and Colorado St. in 1978 instead of Arizona and ASU. CU would certainly fit in with the academic crowd, and although CSU is probably a stretch in the classroom, it’s no more so than either of the Arizona schools were back then… and all 3 of them were in the WAC.
Maybe they thought they couldn’t pull CU away from the Big 8… who knows.
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