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The Reality Check on Boise State

The talk about Boise State as a legit national title contender is only going to increase as the off season goes along. The piece earlier today kind of covered the pro side of the argument. Here comes the con though.

Boise State should get some measure of congratulations for taking on Virginia Tech all the way across the country. A lot of teams haven't ventured that far from home in the regular season in recent years (or decades... *cough*Florida*cough*). The next best team on the schedule is Oregon State, which has averaged nine wins a year over the last four seasons. After that, the next best team is either Wyoming, Louisiana Tech, Nevada, or Fresno State depending on how those teams pan out.

Now, playing a potential national title contender and a probable nine-win team from a major conference is nice. But you know who else will play that combination? Nearly every single major conference team, only they'll all have multiple Oregon States on their schedules thanks to their conferences. Many of them will have a decent-to-good major conference team or two outside their leagues.

Until and unless Boise State schedules good teams (AQ conference and high end MWC squads) in all four or five of its non-conference slots, it's going to have little room to complain about being left out of the national title game.

Sure it sucks that the WAC is terrible and the Pac-10 won't send the Broncos an invite. That's out of BSU's control.

What is in its control is the way it fills up its non-conference slate, and it's not doing as much as it can to crank up the difficulty rating. Boise State knows it's able to get return games from the Pacific Northwest Pac-10 schools as well as the upper crust of the MWC like Utah and BYU. It must milk that for all its worth while swallowing its pride and doing guarantee games elsewhere. I understand that a lot of major teams won't put up the money to bring the Broncos to their campuses for fear of losing, but scheduling Miami University several years out is giving up without trying.

The point of doing that isn't just to get some quality wins, which sure helps. The point is that playing those big programs week in and week out is more physically taxing on a team than playing non-BCS programs almost every game. Even the ones that don't go to bowls every year like Mississippi State and Iowa State are still bigger, faster, and hit harder than the San Jose States and Louisiana Techs of the world. Boise State can always be fresh for its one to three big games each season because it's not getting beat up as badly on a weekly basis.

BSU will get its chance to play for it all sooner or later as long as it keeps having undefeated years. This season might be that season. But while it'd be nice if Boise State gets those wins over VT and Oregon State this fall, the schedule still doesn't match up with a BCS conference schedule.

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Thank you.

Agreed 100%. Excellent points. Thank you for this, Year2.

by marktheshark on Apr 6, 2010 9:19 PM EDT reply actions  

i know i'm going to get cracked by saying this but here it goes.

just once i would like to see an sec team play in the snow.
just one more time(i think tenn or miss. state went to laramie) i would like to see an sec team play an away game at over 2000 feet
it would be also nice to see more sec teams play 6 home games and 6 road games
recently it’s been 7 home games against 5 road games and alot of them have 8 home games and 4 road games.

the reason that this year is different is that their are no really dominant teams in the sec or big 12. i could see all the good teams with 2 losses. if boise beats v.t. and i think they will they will roll the rest of their schedule for another undefeated season and 26 game winning streak. if they start in the top 5 it might be hard for the computers to screw them. the big ten could have osu going undefeated. i believe their two toughest games are against miami and iowa. if they go undefeated they would goto the bcs ncg at the fiesta bowl. funny thing is bsu is 2-0 in fiesta bowls and ohio state won their bcs ncg there. i’ll take boise state and the points (plus moneyline) to win the game outright if it happens. the pac-ten will be awful this year with oregon’s legal problems, the hammer coming down on usc in a week and now i find out cal has major financial problems for the athletic department. sacramento bee and san francisco chronicle. the acc best teams would have lost to boise state and osu so they are out of the running. the big east is going to have a down year if you can call it that. that all. i am a mwc fan, not a wac fan. just my opinion.

I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood"

by wolfmanshowlforever on Apr 6, 2010 9:52 PM EDT reply actions  

You aren't going to see an SEC team in the snow

Because non-conference games are in September. And it doesn’t snow in September in the vast majority of the country. Tennessee has a game scheduled a few years down the line in Columbus, Ohio. But it’s too early in the year.

As for scheduling games at 2,000 feet, the problem is that there aren’t a lot of recruiting hotbeds at 2,000 feet, and teams tend to schedule away games around recruiting. Honestly, I don’t even know why 2,000 feet is a big deal. I live at roughly that elevation (or I suppose I ought to say my parents live at that elevation back in Tennessee), and I don’t really even notice the difference.

by Incipient_Senescence on Apr 7, 2010 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

To be fair, the high plains / mountains teams don't really want to get involved in late Southern summer games either.

That humidity is killer, and cramps are a much bigger problem if you’re not used to it.

The altitude is a valid point, but 2,000 feet isn’t enough to affect those athletes, given the amount of downtime they have in a game. They have time to catch their breath. A few of the stadii in the 5,000+ range have more to offer in terms of homefield advantage. One of my favorite memories of a Wyoming game was when Hawaii came into town (7,200 feet). They had an unbelievable number of oxygen tanks lined up behind the benches. We saw that and knew they were defeated before the game started – the altitude was already in their heads.

Also, forget about SEC teams (or, really any of the major-stadium teams) playing 6-6 home-road schedules. They would lose far too much revenue. It’s cheaper to pay the price to bring other teams in than to settle for a home-and-home unless the opposing team has a stadium of comparable proportions. (In the latter case, the attendance and the TV revenue make up the difference.)

by David Hooper on Apr 7, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

true

some how Wyoming got that game with Texas. It was a 2 for 1 but still they went to Wyoming and it took a half before they were able to put away Wyoming.

by Jeremy Mauss on Apr 7, 2010 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

i really meant over 4000 feet but i thought someone here would have a fit over that.

teams like utah, byu, airforce, wyoming and colorado state fit the bill. the mwc would take a home and home.

I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood"

by wolfmanshowlforever on Apr 7, 2010 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

thier was a team that went to play an sec team in a humid atmsophere. can't remember which one.

pickle juice was the cure. at least they thought it was. any thoughts on pickle juice?

I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood"

by wolfmanshowlforever on Apr 7, 2010 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

What this boils down to...

Is Boise detractors want teams like BSU and TCU to play at least 6+ games per year against “real” competition (and, no, each other don’t count), and Boise supporters want an SEC team to “play in the snow” or “at a high elevation”.
This, of course, begs the question: teams that deal with these issues on a regular basis aren’t really effected by these conditions, especially elevation, since, you know, they live at that elevation everyday. Isn’t that more or less admitting that these WAC and MWC teams need a handicap? I’m not trying to “bash” anyone, this is just my impression of the argument. Feel free to correct me if I’m off base.

by dxf04 on Apr 8, 2010 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

i do think the ncaa should make an sec team play in the snow and a mwc team play in the

humidity. know that is fair.

I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood"

by wolfmanshowlforever on Apr 9, 2010 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

now that is fair. i write these to quick.

I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood"

by wolfmanshowlforever on Apr 9, 2010 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

I am still unable to take Boise seriously

…after BSU/UGA ’05. Beating a middling Oklahoma team in the Fiesta Bowl, sweet trick plays or not, has done little to change this. Same goes for games against typically flaky Oregon/Oregon State outfits.

by D.N. Nation on Apr 7, 2010 10:48 AM EDT reply actions  

Boise is a different team

That was when they were on the cusp of going from a good team to being a great team. I get your point at being cynical, but had Boise played an AQ school in their BCS matcup last year people would be thinking differently.

by Jeremy Mauss on Apr 7, 2010 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

I still love how everyone talks about that game like “Boise State’s win over Oregon is looking better all the time.”

If you want an idea of how we were playing then, don’t look at Halloween night. Look at Purdue and Utah. We were decent, but we were not playing at a level that deserves “Boise State beat the Pac-10 champs” with no asterisks.

STILL stopping every few minutes to realize "Whoa. The Saints won the Super Bowl."

by AllSaintsDay on Apr 8, 2010 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Shit like this is why we need a playoff so bad

There probably won’t be any undefeated SEC or Big 12 teams, and they’ll be snubbed by the BCS if Boise goes undefeated. I promise you though, a two-loss SEC champion would whip Boise State.

Gator Bait: The first, and still the best.

by colombo259 on Apr 7, 2010 10:53 PM EDT reply actions  

i expect this upcoming season their will be no dominant team in the sec or big 12.

i can see all the good teams with two losses. bsu vs a 2 loss sec or 2 loss big 12 team on a nuetral field would be a good game. i would take the points and count my money. bsu is by far the best covering machine in the last 14 years. nobody is even close.

I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood"

by wolfmanshowlforever on Apr 8, 2010 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

BSU fan here

Year2, thanks for your fair-minded and considerate analysis of BSU’s situation. For my part, the idea of BSU playing for the BCS title was not even conceivable in my mind at the start of the ‘09 season. It still feels like a little much! But now that BSU’s reputation has shot up to new levels and the possibility is very real, I feel safe in saying a lot of Bronco fans are counting unhatched chickens. At the same time, we fans know very well that VT is one huge egg, and that BSU has to catch a lot of breaks from other top teams losing. That hasn’t stopped us from feeling very giddy about what is possible for Bronco football.

Points about scheduling well taken. Certainly BSU’s athletic dept. has been trying harder to beef up the OOC schedule for future seasons, but they could stand to reevaluate their strategy of how to get reputable teams to play the Broncos.

One sidenote: people who point to BSU/UGA ‘05 as a knock on the Broncos’ ability to take on teams in elite conferences are being, at best, lazy. We’re talking about a game that took place 5 seasons ago. Player-wise there’s nothing left of the ‘05 team that indicates the ability of the current team. Hawaii beat Alabama in 2003. That was 7 years ago; you wouldn’t predict that Hawaii could beat Alabama today. Heck, BSU took Hawaii by 45 last season.

by hummerofdoom on Apr 11, 2010 11:21 PM EDT reply actions  

Thanks for the comments.

It’s not so much that people are down on Boise State because it lost to Georgia in ‘05, but because of the way it lost to Georgia in ’05. I can remember at the time some folks were picking BSU to win the game as an upset special, and certainly those who didn’t see a Bronco win thought it would be a close game.

Instead, Boise State completely face planted into the Sanford Stadium turf. It wasn’t close to any degree. Now sure, teams change and players come and go. Everyone understands that. It’s just that they finally traveled outside their comfort zone and they got absolutely killed. They looked more like a Sun Belt sacrificial lamb than a national player.

Images like that don’t fade from memory too easily. That’s why I’d bet most college football fans think of Boise State as Trick Play University when in reality, gadget plays have had very little to do with the runaway success of the program. That’s also what makes this Virginia Tech game so important. The only way to erase those Georgia ’05 memories is to either beat VT or at least lose close. Another blowout loss would firmly attach a reputation of not being able to win the big one far from home to the program and it would seriously hurt a lot of the progress of the past decade.

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SBNation's SEC Blog

by Year2 on Apr 12, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

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