The Bubble Shrinks by One

St. Mary's beat Gonzaga to claim the West Coast Conference auto-bid. That's bad news for Florida, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss since St. Mary's was outside the bracket until last night and Gonzaga is a lock.

Old Dominion won the CAA, so that's good news for the bubble guys. Also, Siena took the MAAC title. While Siena likely would not have gotten an at-large bid, this at least takes away some uncertainty.

6 months ago Year2 7 comments 0 recs |

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“St. Mary’s was outside the bracket until last night”

Lunardi had them at an 11 even before the final (ie, comfortably above ‘last four in’ status, which was spread over the 12 & 13 lines.)

by peachy rex on Mar 9, 2010 9:45 AM EST reply actions

I was going by SBNation’s bracketology, which had the Gaels out.

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by Year2 on Mar 9, 2010 10:45 AM EST up reply actions

Plus if you’re going by ESPN, the Bubble Watch edition for today makes the case that St. Mary’s profile this year absent the WCC title isn’t that different than it was last year when it was left out of the NCAAs. It wasn’t a sure thing they’d be in, but now it is.

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by Year2 on Mar 9, 2010 10:49 AM EST up reply actions

I’m not too keen on comparing year-to-year – there’s too much fluctuation. Florida had the best RPI of the excluded teams last year, and it was 50-something – there have been teams in the recent past that got down into the 30s and were still stiffed.

by peachy rex on Mar 9, 2010 4:11 PM EST up reply actions

nevada has a real good chance of upsetting utah state.

the wac tournament is played at the lawlor events center which is home court for the wolf pack. they would meet in the finals and if utah state got that far they would have a 17 game winning streak. i think they would get in without winning their tournament. it defintely would not be a lock but i think a 27-7 usu team would get in. that would be after the two touney wins and a loss to nevada. their marquee win is 14th ranked byu. they are ranked right now just outside the top 25, at 26th in the nation. how many teams does the sec expect to get in?

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by wolfmanshowlforever on Mar 10, 2010 7:28 AM EST up reply actions

Three are locks, and four is likely. The only way the SEC doesn’t get four is if Tennessee beats Ole Miss and Auburn beats both Florida and Miss State in the SEC tournament. That’s not impossible, but it’s not likely.

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by Year2 on Mar 10, 2010 8:11 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah, I think one of the three bubblers will likely do enough to make it in. Of course there’s always the chance of a team coming out of nowhere and blitzing to the auto bid, but I’d be pretty shocked if a team outside the locks or bubblers ripped off four in a row this year.

by peachy rex on Mar 10, 2010 9:07 AM EST up reply actions