Florida Blows an Opportunity as Vanderbilt Survives
by Year2 on Mar 3, 2010 9:53 AM EST
in SEC Basketball
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PrintIn the only SEC game last night, Vanderbilt held off Florida 64-60 in Gainesville to remain marginally in the running for the SEC East title. Kentucky would have to lose its final two games for the Commodores to get that crown, but they are still in the race for now.
John Jenkins was the difference maker for Vandy, as he scored 18 points on six made three pointers. A.J. Ogilvy also came up big with 16 and 8. Vernon Macklin was easily the standout for the home team, as he was the only Gator in double figures with 21 points. UF's guards returned to their slumping ways, as Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton combined for an unsightly 3-24 from the field. Vandy led for the first 29 minutes of the game until Florida took the lead as a part of a 16-2 second half run. Vanderbilt came back though and held the Gators scoreless in the final two and a half minutes to pull away for good.
The Gators' bubble hasn't burst, especially since Illinois, Cincinnati, Minnesota, and Louisville all lost last night too. This sort of thing drives me nuts though. I'm not just picking on Chris, because every bracketologist does stuff like this to multiple teams every year. It's a four step process:
- The bracketologist declares that Team X has done enough to get in even if it doesn't beat tough opponents Team Y and Team Z to close out the season.
- Team X loses to Team Y. More often than not, on the same night other bubble teams lose or otherwise fail to score a big win.
- The bracketologist now moves Team X out of the bracket while noting that its resume suddenly looks weaker despite the fact that mere days ago, he said that Team X didn't have to beat Team Y and the bubble picture is largely unchanged.
- I unsuccessfully attempt to slap the bracketologist up side the head over the Internet.
Florida goes to Rupp Arena on Saturday, where presumably a win would put the Gators in for good. Florida won't win, of course, but that's what it would mean. Florida definitely can't blow its first round SEC tournament game and get in, and depending on how the other bubble teams shake out, it may need to win more than just that.
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Just an FYI
If the SEC Regular Season crown ends in a tie, there are no tiebreakers. Those only come into play for the SEC Tournament.
So, if UK manages to drop either of their games (at UGA – no easy task, and vs. UF) and Vanderbilt beats USC, they are SEC Co-Champions.
Billy Donovan
Interesting career path at Florida, when you think about it. Goes from nothing to NIT to Sweet 16 to the National Runner-up in four years. After that, five years of slight underachieving, exemplified by some pretty damning NCAA/SECT performances. And then….comes mostly out of nowhere to win the title when Duke/UCONN implode against lesser teams. Dominant the next year, repeats as champion. About to bow out at Florida to go to the NBA, but then changes his mind.
And now, this. Two straight NIT appearances, and teetering on the brink once again. Hasn’t been a remote national factor since ’07. What happened?
Donovan is best when he has a deep bench. For how he likes to have his guys play with the uptempo offense and pressing defense, he needs a lot of guys to rotate in and out to stay fresh.
That said, Donovan also has a history of high attrition. It seems like someone transfers out after every season. When he’s got only seven players he can trust, the teams struggle to get into the tournament and to get past the first weekend when they’re in. Recruiting in recent years hasn’t been great either, which makes the attrition problem worse.
The 2000 Final Four team went 10 deep. The 2006 team went nine deep. The 2007 team wasn’t as deep, but it had three top 10 draft picks on it. The past few years there’s been only about six or seven quality players, and that’s being generous to some guys. The Roberson/Walsh/Lee teams that had all the early tournament exits generally had only one or two bench guys worth anything until ‘05 when the Oh Fours were the bench, but Roberson and Walsh didn’t like playing with them.
Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog
Speaking of '05...
Had Florida beating UNC and going to the Final Four in my bracket that year. Was so sick of tournament underachieving that I had them dropping a first-round upset a year later. Whoops.
(Also had them winning the SECT last year, but don’t feel so wrong about that one; that was anyone’s tournament and by “anyone’s tournament” I mean no one was really any good)
Good point about depth. I recall Donovan trying to press Georgia all over last year in Athens, only to have the Dawgs Statue-of-Liberty the tired Gators to death with mid-court handoffs.
Did Donovan’s Magic flirtation have anything to do with the downturn in recruiting? Don’t know if that can explain it now. Any heat on Donovan in Gainesville, or are the three FFs and two titles enough for a good while? Last year and this year’s Florida teams always seem to be on the cusp of being pretty good, only to foul it up.
I don’t know that the Magic thing hurt him in recruiting. He’s been getting a lot of the guys he wants; it’s just that they’ve just not been as good as expected, they leave, or both.
Dan Werner, Jonathan Mitchell, Jai Lucas, Eloy Vargas, Allan Chaney, Adam Allen, Kenny Kadji, Ray Shipman, and Erik Murphy were all 4* recruits. None have yet to or ended up playing that way for UF thanks to some combination injuries, personality clashes with the coaches, and/or ineffectiveness. There’s still time for Kadji, Shipman, and Murphy, but the rest either transferred or in Allen’s case had career ending injuries.
His job is completely safe though. Florida’s far and away a football school just like most of the SEC. As long as he keeps winning 20 games a year, which he has been even over the past three years, he’ll be fine. It’s not a terribly high bar to reach too with the schedule expansion of recent years.
Maybe if they miss the tournament another two or three years beyond this one he might start to feel heat, but Florida basketball before Donovan largely consisted of Neal Walk, Vernon Maxwell, Dwayne Schintzius’ mullet, and a miracle Final Four under Lon Kruger in ‘94. It’s a worse history than football had pre-Spurrier the coach since football had Spurrier the Heisman winner and the consistent, if not championship caliber, winning in the ’60s and ’80s.
There’s a pretty good recruiting class coming in next year, so Florida should be back in the tournament in 2011 barring any unexpected transfers. No one on the team jumps out as a NBA draft candidate, so the core will return.
Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog
I will say this for this year's version
If they get in the NCAAs, they’ve got potential to make higher seeds’ lives miserable. It’s not like the team is wholly without quality players/victories.
I am hopefull for next years team especially if they pick up a few freshmen to give them that depth you were talking about. The entire starting 5 will be back, (Werner isnt really a starter) Parsons and Macklin seemed to play really well late in the season. Walker and Boynton have gone though a terrible cold streak.
So hopefully with a entire off season to tweak Boyntons game, work on Walkers PG skills, get the 6’9’’ guys a lot stronger, add a couple of the guys to the bench, and I think we are real contenders in the EAST next year.
"When you argue correctly, you're never wrong."-Nick Naylor
My feeling:
Florida loses to Kentucky but beats Alabama in the first round of the tournament. That sets up a 2nd round matchup with Mississippi State on a neutral court, and I think that’s an elimination game for tourney purposes. With as weak as the bubble is this year, I’m actually inclined to say that the winner of that game gets in, but if they could beat Vanderbilt in the semis, it’d certainly help their case. Looks like the SEC’s hopes of 5 bids are pretty much shot though.
by Incipient_Senescence on Mar 3, 2010 11:44 AM EST reply actions
Back-to-back games in which Florida loses narrowly after failing to score in the final 2:30… sigh. Just… sigh.
Two years in a row
Florida goes into Athens really really really not needing to drop a game, and…
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