Thursday Tournament Open Thread
by Year2 on Mar 18, 2010 11:30 AM EDT
in Basketball
130 comments
It's finally here, folks: the first of the best two days in all of sports. All four SEC teams in the tourney are playing today.
SCHEDULE
10 Florida vs. 7 BYU - 12:20 ET
Will the Gators get bounced early as yet another great guard slices them up, or will the defense show up and help them pull the upset?
4 Vanderbilt vs. 13 Murray State 2:30 ET
Can Vanderbilt's size win out or will the Commodores get upset as a 4-seed again?
1 Kentucky vs. 16 ETSU 7:15 ET
If you're not a Wildcat fan, I don't know why you're watching this one.
6 Tennessee vs. 11 San Diego State 9:45 ET
Can the Vols put a good game together and put away the Aztecs, or will UT fulfill its media-determined destiny as a trendy upset victim?
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Halfway home in OKC with Florida trailing BYU by 2. Florida was up 28-21, but BYU closed the half on a 14-4 run. UF’s shots were falling early, but suddenly they couldn’t throw it in the ocean for a while.
The pace favors BYU. Florida’s just not a good enough offensive team to keep up with a fast-paced game.
Team Speed Kills
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Yeah, we really need to make this a half-court game. The transition stuff is killing us. Hitting shots would obviously do the trick, but even taking better care of the ball and managing the occasional offensive rebound would help.
I actually have to disagree – to some degree – with your last assertion. BP’s numbers show exactly the opposite, that UF was one of the most effective offensive teams in the SEC. It was on defence that our boys struggled. So a high-scoring contest isn’t necessarily problematic, it’s the pace that’s dangerous for an eight-man rotation.
They’re not a great shooting team though, which is what I should have said.
A high number of possessions favors the better shooting team, simply because it’ll most likely make more buckets across them. BYU shoots 48.6% from the field and 41.9% from three, while Florida shoots 44.4% from the field and 31.3% from three. Getting into an up-and-down game will only help to make that difference more apparent.
Team Speed Kills
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Oh, I can agree with that. Florida was surprisingly good from an efficiency standpoint in conference play (at least through the first thirteen games or so, I don’t think I ever saw the last set of numbers.) But the Gators definitely prefer a modest (not to say glacial) pace.
I guess we’re worried about the same situation, just for different reasons.
Elsewhere
Notre Dame’s up on trendy upset pick Old Dominion 28-22 at the half, while Robert Morris is having it’s way with Villanova (!?) 24-16 late in the first.
Team Speed Kills
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Jimmer sure loves that scoop layup thing.
Also, thank a lot, NCAA schedulers, for putting BYU in the first game. It removed all suspense of wondering when we’d see the tournament’s first white out.
Team Speed Kills
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I like having Old Dominion early though, because it’s always fun to count how many mid-major coaches look more like a lawyer, car dealer, or insurance salesman than an actual coach. Blaine Taylor looks like he sells fine pre-owned vehicles conveniently located right next to the major interstate.
Incidentally, Georgia promoted one of those up to the big leagues by hiring Nevada’s Mark Fox (lawyer).
Team Speed Kills
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I’ll give them this though – BYU keeps going on hot streaks but can’t seem to lead by more than 4. They’re hanging in there well.
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You know what I miss most from the 04s? The big guys could pass. For all their virtues, Macklin and Tyus aren’t so hot in that department.
And yeah, Florida’s doing a fine job. BYU’s the better team, but the Gators are making them win it… and with a margin like this, and the freakish scoring runs Florida can go on (like the one that buried Tennessee), it’s very much a live contest still.
It will be interesting to see how the guard rotation plays out next year, especially if Knight chooses UF (oh, please.) I could see Walker playing the Jamal Crawford role, as a high energy shooter and scorer leading the second unit off the bench – because frankly, I don’t really see him as a starting quality PG.
I hope anyone betting on Notre Dame-ODU took the under… 8 minutes to go and it’s 41-37 Irish.
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But it looks like ODU is going to give them as many chances as they need…
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I’m thinking Fredette has some friendly refs in the MWC; he expects to draw the foul every time he drives.
Villanova is doing what every favorite who gets upset does – as soon as they get within a possession, they relax and give up an easy bucket or two.
Team Speed Kills
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This overtime has been less than stellar in terms of execution.
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That was a great steal.
Loyd has been the player of the game for BYU – he keyed the big run that kept UF from building a huge gap in the first half, and he’s been their offence in OT.
With Boynton fouled out and Parsons hurt, I’m afraid it’s probably curtains for UF.
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Two overtime games in the first three contests… this could be an epic tournament.
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Oh well
It was a valiant effort.
Side note: we’ll be seeing Jimmer’s little wave at the camera for the rest of this tournament.
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Well, that was simultaneously satisfying and frustrating – on the one hand, Florida vastly outperformed the expectations of the talking heads… on the other, Florida had three decent chances to win and missed ’em all. Being the valiant underdog is all well and good, but I want to win, dammit.
Also, I’m rooting against Fredette henceforth – something about him just rubs me the wrong way. Perhaps it was the petulant, NBA-ready “who, me?” after getting called for an obvious offensive foul, or waving at the camera and then bricking his next FT (instant karma, kid.) Though I have a feeling I won’t have to worry about him for too long – a big athletic team that holds on to the ball will eat BYU alive inside.
K-State will beat them in the next round.
I’m proud of them though. They surpassed my expectations, and it’s nice core to add some impact freshmen to for next year.
Team Speed Kills
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I think it will be a very solid team next year, especially if Knight comes aboard. The only graduation loss is Werner, and for the first time in forever we won’t have any early entries. (I mean, we shouldn’t – we really, really shouldn’t.) Losing key guys early has just been back-breaking… the 04s were one thing – they were ready to go and more than deserved their millions – but twice losing the best or second-best guy off a team that was just a little short of the tournament… that sucked. Especially since neither Speights nor Calathes was really ready to make the jump.
Not to mention a parade of 4* recruits all didn’t pan out so well.
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And let’s not forget transfers – one damned transfer after another. Now, granted, it’s possible none of those guys would have been starting quality (in that respect we came out ahead with Macklin), but they sure would have been better than the empty chairs that constituted spots nine and up in the rotation.
Donovan’s always had his share of that though: James White, Christian Drejer, and Ryan Applebee spring to mind as guys that left before the ’04s, and I think there were others before that.
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Nova survived after a seriously dumb last possession by Robert Morris. Here’s a hint: having some guy stand around and dribble then jack up a contested, off-balance three only works if that guy is Michael Jordan or Larry Bird.
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I’m beginning to wonder if Vandy can win a track meet with Murray State.
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Vandy was one of the high seeds that drew a fair bit of scrutiny in the “who’s vulnerable to an upset” stakes.
This was maybe a season where the 3-through-14 seed lines were a bit compressed (hell, even the 2 line isn’t so stunning.)
Of course, I wouldn’t use the “BCS league” metric myself, since BYU was not only the higher seed but a universal and heavy favourite. (And though Nova’s in the Big East, basketball Big East and football Big East are kissing cousins at best.)
I’m impressed by this tournament so far though. Not a blowout in the bunch yet.
Team Speed Kills
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Absolutely – there will be a few massacres later on, but these games in the 3-14 range have to be compelling, because they have no other point. It would be pretty surprising if a 3 won the title this year, and an absolute shock if a 4 pulled it off any year… and beyond the 4s you have a better chance of flying to the moon by flapping your arms than of winning six in a row. So these early-rounders by non-contenders are basically equivalent to the lesser bowl games… they matter enormously to the schools involved, but for the rest of us they’re a chance to be entertained and (possibly) gamble.
Are the top 8 that much better than the rest. Especially in a one and done situation?
by JoeinSavannah on Mar 18, 2010 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Kentucky and Kansas are alone at the top by themselves. Syracuse is only a bit behind when fully manned.
Duke and the 2 seeds are about even, and the 3 seeds aren’t bad but are all flawed. It’s a big jumble from 4 down to about 7, and then 8-12 are all roughly even.
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What do you think about the chances of a George Mason-type final 4 team? I keep looking up at the scores and the little guy is playing right with the higher seeds.
by JoeinSavannah on Mar 18, 2010 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
The chances of an 11 making that far are never good, for obvious reasons. It sure seems possible so far though since none of the big favorites are playing all that well.
Still, it’s early yet and there are 29 first round games yet to go final. It may just be a bunch of teams coming out flat in the first round (which is not unheard of when they’ve been told all week that they’ll win).
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true.
I supposed these early scares may get the night favorites more focused on the task at hand
by JoeinSavannah on Mar 18, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Historically, they are – it’s not so much the one-and-done aspect (which would tend to favour the underdog), as needing to win six in a row on neutral courts against a wide range of different styles and with three quick turnarounds. That’s really tough to do, and the top handful of teams have a much better chance of pulling it off.
In general, I would agree with Year2 – there are two obvious contenders, one team right behind them, and perhaps five that wouldn’t be too surprising as champs. After that it’s a mess, and while teams frequently rise out of the ruck to make the Final Four – even to play for the title – they usually don’t win it. A year like ’06 was pretty freaky by tournament standards, but even it ended with a 3 knocking off a 2, and since then chalk has ruled.
I guess I just assume that teams from the BCS conferences are better prepared for the tournament because of league play and am surprised when the BYU’s and New Mexico’s win even with higher seed. I admittedly do not follow much CBB until the tournament. Although Fox did get me a lot more interested in UGA bball than usual.
by JoeinSavannah on Mar 18, 2010 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I like what Fox is doing there. He’ll have a contender in the SEC not too long from now.
Team Speed Kills
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And for good reason. They lost to Western Kentucky, Georgia, and South Carolina and wasn’t exactly sharp down the stretch.
Vandy needs to slow this thing down and use their size to their advantage. Fortunately for Murray State, it’s easier to bait teams into fast paced games than slow ones since every basketball player at heart wants to run ’n gun it all the time.
Team Speed Kills
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North Texas is attempting to become known for something other than a great jazz band and losing by 70 to Big 12 teams in football. Good for them, I say, just as long as they don’t pull this one out in the end.
Team Speed Kills
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You need several more >>> between SEC and PAC 10… it was just awful this year, even beyond the very low standards of last season’s SEC.
That’s true. The MWC and A-10 probably go in there, if you’re including mid-major conferences.
Team Speed Kills
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Neither has a real title contender, but in terms of “serious teams” (ie, the kind that get awarded lock status with time on the clock in the regular season), both were at least even with the SEC. Talent’s really getting distributed these days – the problem for the non-big conferences so far, unlike in football, is that none has been able to stay in the top tier for long. It wasn’t so long ago that the A-10 was a non-factor. (And remember the days when it was all about the OVC and MVC?)
Curiously, Pomeroy’s numbers actually put the PAC 10 very comfortably in sixth, closer to the SEC than to the MWC; I guess every way you slice it you can come up with different answers.
K-State is pulling away from North Texas for the day’s first apparent blowout…. thank goodness.
Team Speed Kills
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This really has been a shockingly intense day… but, as you noted up above, that doesn’t necessarily mean anything. I recall (hazily, and my memory may be faulty) that the first half-day in ’07 was pretty nail-biting, but after that the blowouts started rolling in.
Speaking of coaches who look like they should be in another profession – Kevin Stallings, District Attorney on Law & Order .
I'm impressed
Someone has already updated Kevin Stallings’ Wikipedia entry to reflect the loss to Murray State.
Team Speed Kills
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Wikipedia is damn near real-time for things like that… always someone ready to jab in the user-edited knife.
That, and editors like to keep up with current events to combat vandalism.
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Arg
Thanks to user incompetence, I had Vanderbilt winning in the first round in my ESPN entry instead of Murray State winning like I have in my picks post.
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Unsurprisingly, Kentucky is rolling against ETSU. I hope CBS picks a new game soon.
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I have to say, Hot Tub Time Machine looks really funny. That’s saying something since I abhor most parts of ’80s culture.
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Dear CBS:
Kentucky is up by 20 just 12 minutes into the game. Now’s a good time to switch to Georgetown-Ohio.
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Northern Iowa has a couple of forwards who look more like Irish soccer hooligans than collegiate athletes.
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I think Dan Werner would make a fine Irish soccer hooligan… and since his collegiate career is finished, why not?
You say that like growing a hobo beard is a bad thing. Not me, man – I say “hobo beards for everyone!” Tyus and Boynton can lead the way.
Maybe, but it’s different when you have a basketball career still versus not.
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Thankfully CBS switched over to Georgetown-Ohio. Unfortunately, the Hoyas aren’t doing so hot.
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Georgetown’s lack of presence around the basket on defense actually is shocking.
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Ohio and Georgetown both are shooting 54% from the field. However, Ohio has 32 shots versus Georgetown’s 21. Plus, Bobcats are 8-15 from behind the arc versus just 4-10 for the Hoyas.
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Ohio is killing it on the offensive glass too. They’re doing everything you could possibly ask an upset candidate to do.
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Yes.
Tennessee Fans: We win at teh Internet!
by bobo_the_vol on Mar 19, 2010 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions
All right
It’s been fun, but I’m signing off for the night. Got things to do and places to go.
Team Speed Kills
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