What a 96 Team Tournament Would Mean Competitively
By now, we've all heard the talk about a potential expansion of March Madness to include 96 teams. Nearly everyone seems to be against it, including John Calipari and Dick Vitale,and the reasons are numerous. I agree on just about every point. The tournament is great where it is at 64/5 teams, and if anything, they should nix the play-in game.
From a competitive standpoint though, what would such an expanded tournament mean?
When it comes to the championship itself, it would mean absolutely nothing. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, only two teams below a 4 seed have ever won the tournament: '85 Villanova as an 8 seed and '88 Kansas as a 6 seed. Both of them won during the first four years when coverage of the sport wasn't as good as it is now and the committee was still getting used to the format. Since then, a single 4 seed has won it all ('97 Arizona), and no one below that has taken home the trophy.
If you're counting along at home, that means only three teams seeded below a 3 seed have won the thing. Letting in a bunch more teams that are below the grade of a 12 seed would not introduce any serious candidates at winning it all. If you're worried about a diluted champion, there's no real need to fret. Especially since no one below an 8 seed has ever won it and the new format almost certainly touches nothing of the top 8 seeds.
Adding 31 to 65 gives us 32 more teams than what a 64-team bracket can hold. The likely track then would be that seeds 1 through 8 get first round byes while the other 64 teams all do play-in games of their own for seeds 9 through 16. I don't exactly know how to make that work right other than to make special seedings for this first round and then re-seed them for the 64 team field after.
I mean, if every play-in game features closely matched teams, then half of the decent teams playing for 9 and 10 seeds would be out while the dreck playing for 15 and 16 seeds gets in. If they hold firm the seedings, then a hypothetical 16-grade team upsetting a 9-grade team means we could have a 17-15 team from a crappy conference sitting on a 9 seed.
Now in theory, this could make the tournament better at the 64-team stage if things go how I assume they would. After all, the mediocre teams could knock the really bad ones out in that first round so that the overall quality of the 9 through 16 seeds would be better. The problem is that the chances of those 9 through 16 seeds succeeding would be undermined by playing a game on Tuesday or Wednesday while the top half of the bracket rests. What, you didn't think they'd push everything back a week, did you?
If they really wanted to make the tournament better, they'd revoke the automatic bids for the worst conferences. They would need to set up some sort of criteria for getting an automatic bid like the BCS has, obviously, but that shouldn't be too hard. It'd cause those bad leagues to revolt, but realistically, there aren't 300+ teams on the same high level. Michigan State and Kennesaw State shouldn't be in the same division.
Of course, that will never happen because the NCAA actually runs the tournament and everyone has an equal say as to what happens. Those tiny conferences can band together and keep their automatic bids because there's no way for the big boys to stop them. That's one reason why it's fortuitous that the NCAA never got hands on with football. As big a mess as the BCS is, the Sun Belt can't force its way into getting into the big games every season.
So yeah, a 96 team field would probably improve the overall quality of the Round of 64. However less rest for the bottom half of the bracket would hurt that quality, and the chances of anyone winning the tournament from that half are extremely remote anyway.
The only thing the expanded field would do from a practical standpoint (beyond extra money and ratings) would be to provide up to 31 more coaches an excuse for not getting fired.
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Your last sentence
That’s one of the reasons I can’t support a college football playoff and the inevitable expansion. I used to be a firm playoff supporter until Dennis Felton happened. By all accounts, he should have been fired after that 2007-2008 season, but because his team went on a miracle run in Atlanta went to the tournament. By having to retain him for almost another full year just set back the UGA basketball program even more.
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“Yeah but he got us into the tournament” is about as lame as “yeah but he got us into a bowl.” If the tournament or bowl season had higher standards then it would mean something. If you can see where things are going and it’s not good, then one outlier of a bowl or tournament bid doesn’t change that.
And yeah, I had Dennis Felton specifically in mind when I wrote that sentence. Sorry for any heartburn you might have experienced.
Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog
I don't want to speak for AuditDawg...
but you didn’t cause this Dawg fan any heartburn (my GERD does that just fine, thank you very much). A 6-6 season and an invite to the Little Caesars or Eaglebank Bowl is not impressive just as Felton’s next to last season was. The lower standards as to how a team is measured in the post season in both college football and basketball as time progresses is laughable.
by marktheshark on Feb 9, 2010 11:29 PM EST up reply actions
The problem is not just the possibility of a lower seed winning the tournament
Whenever you introduce more teams and more games into the mix, you increase the odds of a random outcome. That’s where the fears of a diluted championship comes in — a team that should be in the Final Four gets removed by a fluke loss (or bad officiating, Heaven forbid) and the course of the tournament is changed.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
But, by adding another round there is an extra trial. Extra trials benefit better teams.
Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog
An additional point about the top seeds
64 teams makes for a single-elimination tournament where everyone plays the same number of games (except #64), and winning 6 straight gets you the trophy. For a single-elimination with 96 teams, there will be a significant number of byes in the first round – I’m assuming that the top 32 will have a first-round bye and the bottom 64 will play 32 games to decide who faces the top 32. Kinda like having 32 play-in games. That means that the top 8 seeds will still only have to win 6 straight, whereas whoever is in the lowest 64 has to win 7 straight. It thus becomes that much HARDER for anyone below an 8 seed to win the tourney, which hasn’t happened even with 64 teams. Won’t make it any more likely for a lower-seed to upset, just means we watch more games. Is that a good thing? I’m not sure.
University of Tennessee : Where Schadenfreude Happens
I never knew that
But you know still cant help but hope and wish for whoever your team is, even if thier a 10 seed.
"When you argue correctly, you're never wrong."-Nick Naylor
Hell no
I’d be ok with having 4 play in games for the 16 seeds, but that is it.
First time I shot her, shot her in the side.
Hard to watch her suffer, but with the second shot she died...
Playoffs?!
I love it when playoff proponents try to argue that such a postseason degrades the regular season. How do you explain teams like the Colts and Saints resting players once they had nothing they deemed was worth playing for? And how about Indy beating a Jets team to make it to the Super Bowl that only made the playoffs because they got to play the Colts bench for half of a must win game late in the season?
For college basketball, here are a few quick questions: what was the final record of any of the past few champions? Did they sweep, split or lose their rivalry games? Did they win their conference tournament? I sincerely doubt that anyone, perhaps even in those fanbases, cared enough about those “lesser” facts to remember them now. Oh, and how many only now started to pay attention to the season because football is over and could care less about what has happened up to now knowing that March Madness’ catch-all is the only thing that matters?
"A player who conjugates a verb in the first person singular cannot be part of the squad, he has to conjugate the verb in the first person plural. We. We want to conquer. We are going to conquer. Using the word 'I' when you're in a group makes things complicated." ~ Wanderley Luxemburgo, 1999
Now being in ACC country, I can assure you that the fans of basketball schools care deeply about the regular season still. They know who beat who and where and when. They know, for instance, the date of when the last time UNC beat Duke at Cameron and the last time Duke beat UNC at the Dean Dome.
I don’t disagree entirely with the idea that a focus on March Madness takes something away from the regular season. However, the fact that everyone plays 30+ games means that each individual game takes on less importance.
It’s also harder to remember exact numbers of games won and lost when the numbers are higher as opposed to just remembering if a football champion dropped a game or not. I’d wager that most casual college football fans can tell you that both ’02 Ohio State and ’05 Texas went undefeated, but not that the Buckeyes won 14 games while Texas won 13.
Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog
Resting players argument
There are two salient differences regarding college football as opposed to professional.
1. It’s pretty much impossible to clinch a particular seed if you still have games to play. An NFL team would play for a #2 seed over a #3 seed, and a college team would play for a #1 seed over a #4 seed (or a #4 seed over an #8 seed).
2. More importantly, the seasons tend to close with rivalry games. Can you really imagine Florida resting their starters against FSU? Georgia against Georgia Tech? Texas against A&M? USCw against UCLA?
by Incipient_Senescence on Feb 10, 2010 10:31 AM EST up reply actions

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