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National Signing Day in the SEC: The King Is on a Leave of Absence! Long Live the King!

In lieu of Sprints, because there really was little non-Wilcox news yesterday aside from recruiting.

Returning for the second year -- which means we can now officially call it annual -- is our Team Speed Kills 12, where we take a look at how the recruiting services ranked the SEC programs in terms of points and averages. For our methodology, go here. Behold: CHARTAGE!

2010tsk12_medium
Click if you need glasses.

An additional caveat this year: Having almost run out of things to disagree on, the recruiting services (Rivals and Scout) this year managed to differ on how many recruits some schools got in terms of commitments. Since it's almost impossible to disaggregate the number of stars and points from the number of recruits overall, the size of the class has also been averaged here. Alabama did not sign a three-foot-tall torso and head to play center.

What does this tell us?

Star-divide

FLORIDA IS BEST BY FAR

This one isn't even close. In average points, Florida is almost as far ahead of No. 2 Auburn as the Tigers are ahead of No. 5 Tennessee. What's mind-boggling is that they managed to do so with four fewer players than Auburn. Florida comes in No. 1 in both services' points rankings.

Florida also has the highest average star grade in the league in both sets of ratings, with a 3.89 in both the Scout and Rivals lists. Once again, the gap is rather large. Florida leads No. 2 Alabama by an average of 0.39 stars. The Tide leads No. 7 Ole Miss by 0.24 stars.

This year, there's no doubt that the best class in the league -- and, depending on what Boy Wonder does at in the next few days in L.A., perhaps the nation -- signed with Florida. They are recruiting more talent than anyone else in the league in total and by the average grade of the recruit. It's almost impossible for the Orange and Blue to keep outrecruiting everyone like this, and they have the "advantage" this year of having a large number of upperclassmen and draft-eligible juniors. (It is the third-largest class in the SEC.) But odds are that there are going to be a lot of members of this class whose names you will remember from SEC title games and maybe national championship showdowns in the near future.

WHY AVERAGES MATTER

There was some debate last year about whether averages should count or whether they should be weighted or how to account for the fact that a class could have, for example, more five stars but have a lower average because it also had more three stars. (I'm really simplifying the argument here.)

But averages matter in part because of the fluctuation in class size. While I haven't (yet) gone back and combined the 2009 and 2010 Team Speed Kills 12 rankings, doing so in the future might give us a better idea of who has the "best" recruiting success. Why?

Let's say a program has only 19 real scholarships this year -- i.e., they can sign up to 25 students in a class, but the total scholarship limit (as opposed to the per-class limit) is going to be exceeded if they go above 19. Some programs will sign 19, some 20, some 21. Others might not be able to make the limit. But next year, a program is likely to have a larger number of scholarships, maybe all 25. Some programs might get 25 letters of intent, some 26 -- you get the idea.

Now, let's say that Program A averages 3.9 stars for a class of 19 and 3.8 for the class of 21. Program B has a lot of upperclassmen in two straight years, so it averages 3.7 for a class of 25 and 3.7 for a class of 25. It's possible that Program B might have a higher point total in the two years -- depending on some other factors -- but the level of talent at Program A is going to be higher in four years if Program A continues to average 3.9 or 3.8 and Program B continues to average 3.7.

That's why the averages are important. Who has lead in average stars two straight years, once in a relatively small class (16) and once in a more robust class (28)? Florida. Who has the highest average point total, over classes of 27 and 27.5? Alabama.

WHOM THAT AFFECTS

So Auburn's bouquet looks a little less impressive when you realize that there are 32 recruits in the class, but the Tigers come in at No. 5 in average talent. They were eighth last year, so Gene Chizik is likely to have to outcoach Nick Saban -- please, stop laughing -- if the Opelika faithful are going to start once again proving they can count fingers any time soon.

Georgia benefits most from averaging, going up three places because the Dawgs only have commitments from 19 players this year. Moving up one: Alabama, LSU, Mississippi State. Down one: Tennessee, Ole Miss, Arkansas.

Of course, that's all relative. There's not such a large gap between most of the upper-tier teams that it's going to take a heck of a lot of "coachin' 'em up" to make most of these teams very good. There are some league champions that would likely take the No. 3 or No. 4 class in the SEC.

CONCLUSION

In the end, coaching still plays a pivotal role in all of this. Ron Zook proved that winning in February doesn't automatically translate into winning in November. It sure helps -- does anyone think the spread option would work as well with Vanderbilt's level of recruits as with Florida's? -- but it isn't fait accompli.

So that's where Ole Miss, South Carolina, Arkansas and the rest have to make up the ground. In superior coaching. As the recruiting services get ever better at figuring out who the best recruits actually are, and as we get more and more data about how those classes turn out, we'll begin to see how much better coaching has to be to make up for losses when the only football being played is the Super Bowl.

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“Alabama did not sign a three-foot-tall torso and head to play center.”

Linebacker kitty is disappointed – that would have been so cool.

by peachy rex on Feb 4, 2010 8:49 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Stop laughing?

Uh, Chizik’s already outcoached Saban once. Unless it’s your belief the guy at the helm of the eventual 14-0 national champions won the matchup against the guy without a second string, with a first-year JUCO corner and a two-star true freshman as his starting safety pairing, and with Chris Todd as his QB … despite the fact the latter’s team led for 58:33 of that game.

I’m sorry, CNF. That’s unnecessarily snarky. But I’m dead tired of seeing in the Saban-vs-Chizik matchup dismissed as a joke when Chizik’s program has played Saban’s to a virtual dead heat both on the field and now on the recruiting trail, despite the fact that it’s Saban who has every on-paper advantage imaginable. Explain to me: why should your readers be laughing at the notion that Chizik could outcoach Saban? What part of his Auburn tenure, what performances, what decisions, lead you to believe this is a mismatch?

by JCCW Jerry on Feb 4, 2010 8:31 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

What game did you watch?

Surely you are not trying to suggest the final score of the Alabama vs Auburn game was an indicator of the game itself are you? Because the game was no where near as close as the score was.

Auburn got ahead with some high risk plays that paid off at the start. Good coaching sure, but they also did have a bye week the week before they played Alabama, and had a bit of time to come up with that stuff. It was a good thing Auburn did as well, because the game wouldn’t have been near as close without that nice start. It kept the game interesting for sure, but for the rest of the game it was basically Alabama dominating Auburn.

Auburn also did a good job at stopping the run, but they did it at the cost of the passing game. McElroy was seen as a weak spot by Auburn obviously, they made Alabama beat them in the air and Alabama rose to the challenge.

It was a great job of Auburn making the best of what they had, no doubt about that. But any claim that Auburn and Alabama were in a “virtual dead heat” on the field isn’t even close to being accurate. Auburn was thoroughly worked over by the 4th quarter and had surrendered.

As is any claim of Chizik “outcoaching” Saban. If he had outcoached Saban, then they would have been able to win the game after such a lobsided start. Yet, for the next 3 qtrs of play it was completely the opposite, as Alabama outscore Auburn in each of them.

But hey, I guess if Auburn fans are happy with moral 1st qtr victories and think they outcoached the other team because of it, then I’m happy for you. I’ll agree it was certainly a step up from 36-0.

by cal n on Feb 4, 2010 10:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You can't judge coaches based on one game

Gene Chizik is still 13-24 as a head coach and has not a conference, division or national title on his head coaching resume. Put another way: If I was told I had one college football game that I had to win and could choose either Chizik or Saban, it wouldn’t take me two seconds to make that decision. Are you really saying you’d take Chizik?

Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.

by cocknfire on Feb 5, 2010 2:16 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No. But that's not the point.

You’re suggesting the idea of Chizik outcoaching Saban is laughable when it’s already been done. Do you really think Saban got more out of his players in the Iron Bowl than Chizik did?

Obviously Saban is the better overall coach (or has been to-date, certainly), but to win an Iron Bowl Chizik only has to be better for one game. Why is it such a joke to think he could manage that?

cal, the only thing I’ll say in response is that only a ‘Bama fan could argue they’d dominated a game in which they got outgained by 50 yards, averaged their fewest yards-per-play of the season, and never led until 90 seconds remained.

by JCCW Jerry on Feb 5, 2010 12:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

uh I am not a Bama fan but I am pretty sure Chizik is no where near Saban level.

point 1- there is no moral victories
point 2- Saban has every on-paper advantage; is that supposed to be a knock against Saban? Last time I heard, Saban is to thank for those advantages.

"When you argue correctly, you're never wrong."-Nick Naylor

by Hook85 on Feb 5, 2010 2:48 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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