Week 12 SEC Football Preview: Arkansas-Mississippi State Leads a Short Slate
by cocknfire on Nov 20, 2010 5:05 AM EST
in SEC Football
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BATTLE FOR JERRY JONES' DEATH STAR INVITE
Arkansas at Mississippi State / 7 p.m. ET / ESPN
The winner of this game still has an outside shot at the Cotton Bowl, depending on how far the SEC is willing to let South Carolina fall (this is going on the logical guess that the Gamecocks lose the Championship Game). For either of these programs, that would be a sign of significant progress. For Arkansas, they will finally have gotten back to where they were when Houston Nutt left after then 2007 season. And the Hogs would still be lined up for a possible BCS berth if they can defeat LSU in the regular-season finale. For Mississippi State, even the Cotton Bowl would be the first time they've played on a postseason stage that big in quite some time.
This could actually be a tougher game than Arkansas fans would like. Despite a high-octane offense that forces opponents to try to keep up from the beginning of the game, the Razorbacks rank ninth in the SEC in rushing defense. Mississippi State does not pass. I mean this quite literally; Chris Relf only qualifies for being ranked in passing efficiency because the NCAA rounds up when calculating minimum attempts per game. (It's 15; Relf has 147 passes in 10 contests.)
With the emergence of a running game powered by Knile Davis, Arkansas now has a far more balanced offense. Davis has now rushed for at least 82 yards in his last six games, more than 100 yards in three of his last four games, and nine of his ten touchdowns in the last four games. Perhaps that is why the Hogs have gone from scoring 30.0 points per game in their first five contests to 45.8 points per game in their last five contests, because the level of opposition has not changed that much.
But this is still the beginning of the toughest part of the second-half schedule for Arkansas. Aside from the road game against South Carolina, the Hogs have faced Ole Miss, Vanderbilt and UTEP in their last four games. After this game in Starkville, the Razorbacks head back to Fayetteville for the showdown with LSU. (On Saturday. Again.)
There's really only two ways this game could go. It can be wildly entertaining and close, or an absolute blowout win by Arkansas that's over halfway through the third quarter. If Mississippi State can run the ball effectively and find some way to slow down the Ryan Mallett-fueled passing attack -- something that has not proven easy for the Western Division Bulldogs this year -- they could make a game of it. If they don't things will get out of hand quickly. Arkansas will win, but it won't be a shellacking.
Arkansas 40, Mississippi State 35
CRAZYCRAZYCRAZYCRAZYCRAZY
Ole Miss at LSU / 3:30 p.m. ET / CBS
Make no mistake about why CBS selected this game. It's not because it's the only matchup between ranked teams; that's Arkansas and Mississippi State. It's not even because of metropolitan ratings, not that this week's slate offers much in that department either. No, this is all about teh crazy. With Les Miles and Houston Nutt facing each other, it's not a question of whether something insane will happen; it's more a matter of how many insane things will happen.
On Ole Miss' side is Houston Nutt's ability to pull of the bizarrely-timed upset, and no upset would be more bizarrely-timed than this one. LSU is on the fringes of the national-title conversation, a mortal lock for a BCS bowl if Auburn simply wins out, building the kind of season that could shut up Miles' doubters for at least a month. Nutt has also defeated LSU the last three times he's faced a Miles-led Bayou Bengals team, from the 50-48 overtime thriller in Baton Rouge in 2007 that nearly knocked the Tigers out of the national championship race, to the 31-13 clobbering in Baton Rouge in 2008, to the two-point game last year that featured the worst late-game meltdown in Miles career.
But the fact is that the Rebels just aren't very good this year. Even with the supposed Jeremiah Masoli-led resurgence, and perhaps in part because of Masoli's concussion, Ole Miss is 1-4 over its last five games. The closest of those was a 13-point loss to Alabama. So while you could say that the last five games have been against very good opponents, that's not really the point. The Rebels haven't even been playing on the same field with those very good opponents.
If you want a reason why I don't bet on sports, this is it. I think this is the perfect set-up for Houston Nutt to spring the upset of the year. But I just can't see it happening, and so we'll tentatively call for another one of Nutt's surprise bids to come up short.
LSU 24, Ole Miss 20
WHO ARE THE COACHES IN THIS ONE AGAIN?
Tennessee at Vanderbilt / 7:30 p.m. ET / CSS
Here's something that's just kind of interesting, but probably won't have an impact on the outcome: This game has featured five different head coaches over the last three years. All rivalries are built on tradition, but this one has not recently been centered on stability. This time, it's first-year Tennessee head coach Derek Dooley, a former lawyer, against first-year Vanderbilt head coach Robbie Caldwell, a former turkey inseminator. So call it the career-change bowl.
Tennessee comes in having taken the title of "hottest team in the SEC" away from Georgia; not coincidentally, they have also taken the title of "weakest recent schedule" from the Dawgs. The Vols have outscored their last two opponents 102-28 -- those opponents were Memphis and Ole Miss. Not that either of those teams are markedly worse than Vanderbilt, but that's something to take into account when you're trying to get some perspective on the offensive renaissance underway in Knoxville.
That said, the Commodores come into this game freezing. They haven't won a game since early October, have been defeated by less than 18 points just once in that stretch, and have seen three teams score more than 40 points against them. If Caldwell is kept on as head coach after this season, it's only because he was dealt such a difficult hand to begin with.
And so it's not that Tennessee has answered all the very real questions about the offense or the ability to win football games. It's that Vanderbilt has given no one any reason to think that they can win against an SEC opponent, aside from their victory against Ole Miss earlier this year.
Tennessee 42, Vanderbilt 14
THE OLD CAROLINA -- JUST FOR A DAY
Troy at South Carolina / 12:21 p.m. ET / SEC Network
In the past, South Carolina would have lost the game to Florida and returned to Columbia for a lackluster game against Troy, a team that is as solid as any team from the Sun Belt can be. The warning sign for the real USC is that the "other" Trojans are 13th in the NCAA in passing offense; the good news is that Troy is 103rd in total offense. This will be a less impressive game than you might think, but not because of the November slide that we've grown used to with South Carolina. Instead, it's probably going to be a bit of a letdown game after the first SEC East championship in program history. As the Gamecocks always do, they score a lot of these points late.
South Carolina 43, Troy 23
SOMETHING LEFT TO PLAY FOR?
Appalachian State at Florida / 12:30 p.m. ET / ESPN3.com
If Florida were not simply the more talented team on the field by a long shot, this might be a game to worry about. After all, the Gators have very little left to play for now that the SEC East is out of reach, and Appalachian State is 9-1 with its only loss coming in overtime. Otherwise, the Mountaineers have sliced through their other opponents with relative ease. But Appy State is still an FCS team, and Florida is no 2007 Michigan if for no other reason than there is no surplus of hubris in Gainesville right now. Is it possible for both teams from a pivotal game to have a letdown win with the margin built up in the second half?
Florida 52, Appalachian State 14
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Couple of points of order
1. The Arkansas/LSU game will be played in Little Rock like always. Well, every other year anyway.
2. The Hogs have their sights set higher than the Cotton Bowl. A win today, and a win in Little Rock next week and the Hogs have an outside shot at the Sugar Bowl.
3. Saying that Arkansas will return to the Houston Nutt level with a Cotton Bowl bid is just a little… inaccurate, I’d say. Superficially it’s true, but Hog fans know the difference between the roller coaster ride of the Houston Nutt era and the solid professionalism of the Bobby Petrino era. Petrino had little to work with when he arrived and appears to be building a solid program from the ground up.
I do agree that today’s game with Mississippi State is going to be a tough on for the Hogs though. I’m calling it a 24-17 win for the Hogs.
Awww. c'mon girl.
Questions
1. I had to look up that your rivalry game with LSU is called the Battle for the Golden Boot. Cool. But why do the Hogs host the game in Little Rock rather than at Fayettville? Does it have something to do with the rivalry specifically, or its the best game to play at War Memorial Stadium?
2. Trying to puzzle out how the Hogs get to the Sugar. If Auburn survives the Iron Bowl (unsure), and soundly beats South Carolina (which most expect), then Auburn probably plays in the NC game. But if Auburn loses to Alabama, or has a tough time with the Gamecocks, then its likely they get passed over for the NC game, and go to the Sugar. Obviously, if South Carolina pulls the upset, then the Cocks go to New Orleans as SEC Champs.
For the Razorbacks to get to the Sugar, that would mean Auburn beats Bama and USC, leaving room for a second SEC team to go to the BCS … and the Hogs would have to climb from # 15 in the BCS to at least # 8 by smashing Miss State in Starkville and beating the Bayou Bengals in Little Rock. Beating those two teams isnt impossible – I think the Hogs are super-hot with the D and Davis really coming on strong, and of course Mallet is a stud – but the question is whether enough higher rated BCS teams (currently, I mean) will lose these next two weeks. I don’t see it happening … I just think the Bama loss will keep you out of the BCS this year, and that big wins over South Carolina and LSU won’t be enough to send a 2 loss team – even one playing great November ball – to the BCS. You’d be very strong for the Capital One (Citrus) and I think the Cotton is regaining some of its good prominence, and of course playing in Dallas is good for Arkansas recruting.
If the Hogs did make the BCS, I suppose it would be either the Sugar (vs TCU or the Big East Winner) or the Orange (vs the ACC winner). As a Carolina fan, I hope its the Orange, since I’ll be prayin’ for the Chickens to be playin’ in the Big Easy on New Year’s Day.
3. I’m not much of a Petrino fan, though I am a fan of Mallet and Davis. Whether BP is a good long term fit for Arkanasas will remain to be seen .. .he’s always seemed to me to be a “grass is always greener guy” and Im not trying to be a jerk about it, but he’s been very restless in his career is probably the nicest way to say it. Houston Nutt, by contrast, was an alum and got the Hogs to the championship game. In any event, Petrino struck gold getting Mallet right away. What will happen after you lose that weapon to the NFL remains to be seen – the margin of error in the SEC, and particularly the SEC west, can be just that thin. Last’s year’s genius coaches are this year’s goats. And so on …
They wore garnet helmets.
I'll try and be brief, but it'll be hard.
1. Beginning with the Frank Broyles era (I think) Arkansas split it’s games between Fayetteville and Little Rock, 4 and 4 or 5 and 3. This was to designed to make the Razorbacks a ‘statewide’ team, and it worked. Several years back, in what has been called The Great Stadium Debate, it was decided that the Razorbacks would play all the games in Fayetteville. Huge uproar among the fanbase from Little Rock and parts south. Eventually it was decided that the Hogs would play one OOC game and one conference game in Little Rock. LSU was picked to be the conference game for reasons that are at best, opaque.
Also, the Golden Boot is a monstrously huge trophy.
2. Razorbacks to the Sugar is indeed a long shot we know, but not out of the realm of possibilities. I think the Orange is and even longer shot. The Citrus is more likely or the Chik-fil-A maybe providing the Hogs win at Miss State and vs. LSU in Little Rock.
But a huge number of Old School Hog fans would prefer the Cotton. It was always the goal during the SWC days and lots of Hog fans would prefer Dallas (THE SHOPPING!) over New Orleans (THE LOOTERS!) or a Florida (IT’S SO FAR!) bowl. So the Cotton Bowl wouldn’t exactly be a disappointment for many, especially since it’s moved to JerryWorld and is moving back up in prominence.
3. Here’s my take on Petrino. Regardless about the details of his departure from Atlanta, the vast majority of Hog fans are thrilled to have him. Even so, there was a pretty entrenched faction of people in the Athletic Dept. (and administration) that thought Houston Nutt was hard done by, and made things difficult for Petrino his first year. That’s largely been cleaned up, but a couple of influential Nutt boosters remain.
Petrino is done with the NFL. That bridge has been burned and the ship has sailed. So the way I figure it, if Petrino builds the program up to the level we all hope and expect him to – being a yearly contender in the SEC – then he’ll have a pretty sweet set up in Fayetteville. We have no pro teams in Arkansas and the Razorbacks really are the only game in the state. He’s very well paid, and if we become a real contender in the SEC and all that comes with that, there aren’t but a handful of teams that are a genuine step up from what a top ten Razorback program could be. From all reports he and his family are very happy in Fayetteville, so we may have lucked out and be in the position to keep him for a good long time. I for one certainly hope so.
Regarding Mallet: This is probably his last year, but if you watched the Auburn game, you saw backup Tyler Wilson throw for 300+ yards and 4 TDs and we might have an even better QB behind him in Jacoby Walker, who is a true run/pass threat. And we have a 4 star Brandon Allen coming in next year too. With Petrino’s reputation for QB development (the anti-Houston Nutt in that regard) we should be fine on that front.
And it wouldn’t surprise anyone if the Hogs are a better team next year in a Payton Mannin/Tee Martin kind of way – which is in no way to be interpreted to say anyone expects a NC next year.
Because at the beginning of the year, it seemed that everyone kind of stood around and waited for Mallett to do something great. After the Auburn fiasco, it looks like the team realized that Mallet couldn’t do it all by himself. The running game has stepped up, the Defense has stepped up and we have almost all of our skill positions players coming back with the exception of Mallet and TE D.J. Williams. Indeed, our biggest weakness at this point is the kickoff coverage teams.
We think our future, long term and short, is pretty bright.
Awww. c'mon girl.
Thanks
good points. I’d totally forgotten how well Wilson played at Auburn – plus you have a stable of top receivers.
Honestly, you make a good point about Petrino. He wanted to be back in the SEC and Fayettville has a ton of upside in terms of being abe to dominate in-state recruiting along with being able to recruit all of Texas, especially East Texas and North Texas, not to mention Louisiana, Mississippi and the usual hot-beds of Atlanta and Florida. Why not stay and continue to build conference championship caliber depth?
It’s gonna be a Wild, Wild West for the foreseeable future … Bama and LSU are going to be perennial powers; Nutt is recruiting lights-out at Oxford and will get the Rebels dangerous again. Until this whole Newton recruiting fiasco, I thought Mullen would be able to build up MSU – but you’ve got to think sanctions are coming. I’m curious what’s going to happen to Auburn and Chizik after Cam goes to the NFL – playing @ South Carolina, @ LSU, @ Arkansas and @ Georgia – is going to be interesting. Aubie could go 4-4 in the league next year, or 3-5, as easy as 5-3.
As for the Hogs in 2011? …. hmmmm. Hard to say to say where y’all finish up. Your “D” will only get better. But youve got to go to LSU and Bama, and I’m thinking you’re likely to split those games. Win them both, and you’ll likely be in Atlanta. Hope you won’t think it an insult, but you might really have all the pieces in place for 2012 and Bama and LSU at home.
Anyhow, thanks for the discussion and good luck today and in your bowl!
They wore garnet helmets.
If we are going to be better next year
Some o-linemen and tight ends will have to step next year. As it stands the only ones with much experience are Swanson, Bailey, and Gragg. Freemen, Cook, and Oden will need to assert themselves. They way we are looking and JUCO linemen doesn’t say much for depth.
Top 14 are eligible for at-large berth
If Auburn wins SECCG and Arkansas beats LSU, they have a decent chance. I don’t happen to think the latter will happen
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
by cocknfire on Nov 20, 2010 2:18 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Houston Nutt is NOT an Arkansas Alum
Nutt played for Holtz at Arkansas, but transferred to Oklahoma State. Nutt didn’t even tell Holtz he was leaving, he had his father call Lou and tell him while Houston packed his things and left in the middle of the night.
As for Petrino…
Petrino chose Arkansas, not the other way around. No coach has an infinite shelf life in the SEC (e.g. Fulmer, Tuberville), but if you want to hear an account of how Petrino left ATL and arrived at Arkansas not filtered through Arthur Blank/ESPN, go to http://www.zshare.net/download/71263562c586a064/. It is a radio interview with Derek Braunecker who is the agent of guys like Cliff Lee, AJ Burnett, etc. and how he was a middle man of sorts between Arkansas and Petrino. Braunecker talks about what really happened behind the scenes with Arthur Blank and has no reason to lie given he makes his living off the credibility he has with professional sports team owners.
Petrino is actually a very good fit at Arkansas. He and his family love Northwest Arkansas and it is obvious from his press conferences, etc. he has grown very comfortable here in the last 3 years. He is getting a new $40MM football operations center. He is getting top recruits from all over the country to attend his summer camps and come on official visits. He is in the Top 10 highest paid coaches. He’s not going anywhere for awhile.
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