Topics for Discussion // 10.03.10

I cannot remember ever seeing anyone who was such a clear frontrunner this early in the season. This kid is averaging 10 ypc on running plays and 10 ypa on passing plays. He’s like Bo Jackson plus David Klinger combined. And make no mistake, Michigan is a terrible team. He’s all that’s standing between 5-0 and 1-4 as far as they’re concerned. Barring a season ending injury, everyone else is playing for second place.

Who’s the favorite in the SEC East?
The SEC East favorite should be clear after next weekend. Florida-LSU and Carolina-Bama. My guess is the Gamecocks give the Tide a better game than the Gators, but I still think UF is the team to beat.

Alabama’s odds of winning the SEC West are now at …
the same level as before. Clear favorite, but I still say that there’s a loss there somewhere. There is no way LSU wins the West (see below). Arkansas needs to win all the rest of their games and have Bama to lose twice; both of those seem unlikely. Auburn has the best chance to take the west over Alabama. They already passed their test from the other division. Even if Auburn loses once between now and then, the Iron Bowl will decide the West. Obviously the final score of Bama-Florida looks good for the Tide, but the Gators left 22 points

Is LSU ever going to lose a game?
Yes. LSU’s offense is sputtering and their coaching and management is just embarrassing. They are going to get run off the field by at least two West teams, probably three. Call me a homer if you want, but I think Florida is going to wipe the field with LSU next weekend as well. LSU will be lucky to have a winning record over their last 7 games. I put their ceiling at 9-3, with 8-4 more likely and 7-5 very possible.

How many games does Georgia win the rest of the season?
Four. Idaho State + 2 from {Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt} + 1 from {Florida, Auburn, Georgia Tech}. I doubt Richt will be fired, but let me mention that if Mike Leach replaces him, it would be much harder for me to hate Georgia.

True or false: The league’s best chance at a Heisman Trophy is Cameron Newton.
Totally true. If his numbers stay the same and they find a way to knock off undefeated Alabama, he’s going to New York, possibly as the front-runner.

1. I’d still bank on Florida. There are problems up front on the Carolina D, and I think Florida wins the head-to-head.

2. Bama got by Arkansas and Florida, and you really can’t say they were lucky. Bama has to go to Baton Rouge, but I don’t see JJ and J-Lee doing ANYTHING against that D. I sez it’s Bama vs. Auburn in T-Town for the title, even if Auburn does suffer the likely loss to the Hogs.

3. I have no words for LSU right now. Our local CBS affiliate (WIAT-42) ran Les Miles’ post-game show. That man can’t even put together a coherent sentence! That said, LSU still has a pretty dynamite defense and explosive special teams units. LSU’s biggest threats left on the schedule are Alabama and Auburn. I figure the LSU Florida game will be a defensive scrum. Who makes the most mistakes?

4. The sad thing about Georgia is that I think they have the talent to run the table from this point. I was wondering how UGA would do with the 3-4. If you’ve got the beef to totally occupy 5 linemen up front, plus speed AND power from both outside linebackers, it’s a great scheme. If not, you’re giving up five yards on running downs plus a weak pass rush. Georgia is beating themselves, mostly. The problem for us Auburn fans is that UGA usually fixes most of their problems by November.

5. I don’t really consider this a serious question yet. If we get through KY, Arky, and LSU undefeated, with Cam’s gaudy stats still intact, then we’ll talk.

SEC East? At this point I would have to say Florida is the favorite, even as bad as they have looked thus far. They have SC in the swamp, but I would not rule out the ‘cocks just yet. They at least showed that they have some talent on offense and one of the best WR’s in the SEC. We will find out this weekend if they have any chance of challenging. I think their biggest problem is how Spurrier steals his QB’s confidence at every opportunity.

Bama’s odds in the West? They are certainly the favorite and have looked like the most complete team from top to bottom in the SEC so far. I’m not sure that being the most complete team will win it for them and I still think they will lose a game against one of the teams with a bye in front of their game down the stretch, but you can’t bet against them just yet. I do think Auburn is their biggest hurdle to get to the SEC CG for the 3rd straight season, but Auburn has some tough games and some questions on both sides of the ball that will remain unanswered through next weekend at least. I’d say they are a 5-1 favorite right now.

LSU losing? Yes. Undoubtedly. I think they will lose to Auburn, Bama, and Arkansas. They have a very, very good defense. They have an SEC Champion caliber defense, but with their coaching difficulties (cough, cough) and no QB on offense, they are bound to be exposed soon enough. It is a shame for LSU fans that he may have saved his job with that call yesterday. The sooner they get rid of Miles the better it will be for LSU, imo.

UGA wins? I would say 3 more. As horrible as they have played this season so far, they still have a ton of talent on that team and can/should have a few good/mediocre games down the stretch. Aaron Murray is going to be very good, but he can not carry the load at this point in his career and their RB’s have dropped the ball in every conceivable way to this point. I think their biggest problem right now is that they do not have the D-line personnel to run that 3-4 this season. They don’t have a huge stop gap NT for the middle and their DE’s are smallish, even for a 4-3 defensive scheme. That and the severe growing pains of completely changing your defensive philosophy on a team that hasn’t had much discipline the past few years has been a disaster. Richt is likely gone after this season.

True or False, CAM? True. The ole Athletic Club and it’s voters have been very stingy with votes for a previous winner in recent years, even when they had better stats that in their Heisman winning campaigns. That combined with the fact that Ingram missed he first couple of games, all but eliminates him. What would his signature win be? They have been and will be favored in every game this season. Ryan Mallet was all but eliminated by his miscues in the Bama game, but he could sneak back into the race if others falter. Cam has the bast chance at it as things look today. That is assuming he continues on his current pace of production. If he were to lead the SEC in rushing, be in the top 5 nationally in pass efficiency, and score a signature win vs a top ranked Alabama team in the Iron Bowl, I can not see another player in the country being a better candidate no matter what they do.