Topics for Discussion: Chaos Edition
by cocknfire on Oct 10, 2010 2:41 AM EDT
in SEC Football
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So, um, who's the favorite in the SEC West again? Here's what happened to the teams in the West in the chaos that was Saturday: LSU defeated Florida in yet another death-defying late victory; Auburn defeated Kentucky by a field goal; Alabama lost by two touchdowns at South Carolina; Arkansas won by seven against Texas A&M in Jerry Jones' Death Star; Mississippi State won at Houston; and Ole Miss had the good sense not to play anyone. No one in the division, we should note, has more than two SEC losses. Is Alabama still the team to beat in the West? Can we rule the two Missisippi teams out?
Is South Carolina now the favorite in the SEC East? With the win against Alabama and Florida's loss to LSU, the Gamecocks have a half-game lead in the division. Even if Florida wins out -- no sure bet -- South Carolina only needs to split its games at Kentucky, at Vanderbilt, vs. Tennessee and vs. Arkansas to go into Gainesville with the SEC East on the line. Can Florida win out against a slate that goes vs. Mississippi State, vs. Georgia and at Vanderbilt? (One would hope, but I'm asking just in case anyone out there is feeling bold.)
We're halfway through the season; what's been the biggest surprise? You've got plenty of candidates, from Georgiapocalypse to the Alabama loss to the offensive issues at Florida. Don't forget Ole Miss' loss in Week 1 to Jacksonville State, which I don't think anyone saw coming, or LSU's bizarre 6-0 start. Then there's Cam Newton's nascent Heisman campaign. And we just thought the offseason was eventful.
We have to put together a BlogPoll ballot out of all this mess: How would you do it? Specifically, tell me how you would rank these teams presented in alphabetical order: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU and South Carolina. If you think someone else needs to be in between them, feel free to point that out.
Will the SEC be able to fill all of its bowl slots? Part of this depends on whether you think that there will be two BCS berths from the SEC or not. There are nine slots to fill one way or the other, from the Sugar Bowl to the Birmingham Bowl. Another BCS team would make that 10. Vanderbilt has three losses and Georgia and Tennessee both have four. Seven losses might be enough to keep a team from going to a bowl this year.
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Taking a stab at the rankings (with explanations):
1. LSU – at some point you have to give them credit for the wins, no matter how crazy they look
2. Carolina – After watching Auburn struggle with MSU and UK, I think it is reasonable to ask if they can beat top notch teams outside of Jordan-Hare. I also think the tragedy with McKinley played a role in several uncharacteristically poor performances.
3. Alabama
4. Auburn – They have one quality win, and it was by a single score at home in a game where South Carolina imploded in the 4th quarter. They still needed a last second deflection INT to seal the victory
5. Arkansas
The only other thing that makes sense to me is to rank the two unbeatens, then rank the one loss group.
"They've just discovered a new use for sheep over there at Clemson... wool." - Lewis Grizzard
by GwinnettGamecock on Oct 10, 2010 3:33 AM EDT reply actions
Arkansas is definitely #5
And South Carolina has to be above Alabama right now. I’d be inclined to put Carolina #3 and Bama #4 until LSU or Auburn lose.
by Incipient_Senescence on Oct 10, 2010 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions
even as a Hog fan, I have to agree Arkansas is 5th out of that bunch
It could all be switched around again next week, though. The crazy thing is that they probably all should be top 10 teams nationally.
That's the really crazy thing
For all the talk of an SEC down year, you have these 5 teams who are all very good (it’s crazy that Florida isn’t one of them, but sometimes that’s how it works out) and probably deserve at least the top 15 and maybe top 10 as you said.
"You know, we had a lot of fun tonight. But there's nothing funny about vapor lock! It's the third most common cause of cars stalling. So please, take care of your car and get it checked!" -Joe Namath
by billycthulhu on Oct 10, 2010 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
No way the league fills all its bowl slots
Two to the BCS. Even if there is no SEC team in the title game the Orange probably would want an SEC team to match with the ACC champ to prop its sagging TV ratings up.
With two in the BCS one way or another that means three out of Kentucky, Georgia, Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Ole Miss must get to six wins assuming the other seven will manage it. There is no way that happens and I don’t think its likely two of those manage bowl eligibility
Ranking them?
1. LSU; it’s ugly, but damn they’ve won ever game this year aided by the Faustian pact Les signed during the offseason.
2. South Carolina, without the Garcia we know and love in Auburn (instead of Evil Garcia who showed up yesterday), is top 3-5, and undefeated. As it stands, this is the best team in the East by a wide margin.
3. Alabama: Despite the parade of follies in every phase, would you like to be Ole Miss next week? Or So. Car. on a neutral field in a December rematch?
4. Auburn: Defense is still painfully bad. Shootouts may work against Kentucky, but when they face a more potent team (Arkansas) or one with a great defense (LSU), the Cam-gasm comes to an end.
5. Arkansas: All world QB, still suck on the road.
"Orators are most vehement when their cause is weak" Marcus Tullius Cicero
by Stuck in the Plains on Oct 10, 2010 5:26 PM EDT reply actions
Can we fill ten bowl slots? Probably not
Winner of the SEC (1 loss or undefeated) has a great shot at MNC game/Sugar Bowl otherwise, loser gets at-large (let’s just say USC and LSU as it stands today).
Then you’ve got Auburn, Alabama, likely Arkansas and Florida for the Cotton/Outback/Cap One/Peach Bowls.
You have to think that UK, with three wins, can scrape together 3 more (with Chars. So., Vandy and UT left).
Mississippi State has 4 wins now, with UK, Ole Miss and UAB…they need two of those b/c they likely will not beat Alabama, Ark or LSU;
I think UGA can rebound and pick up four more wins: There’s still Vandy, Kentucky, Idaho State on the schedule, and pick up one of the rivalries GT/UF/Auburn.
The wildcard is Ole Miss: sitting at 3-2, they are now in the meat of the schedule, still on tap are Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU and State. There is a likely W at Tennessee and a gimme against ULL. But, I can’t see (on paper) a 6th win. It would require an upset of any of the teams in the West, and they’ve not even gotten into division play.
Call it 8-9 realistically, as ten teams depend on UGA taking care of business, Ole Miss to spring a surprise (most likely candidate, Auburn, whom HDN is successful against), and Kentucky to be consistent. That is too tall an order, I believe.
"Orators are most vehement when their cause is weak" Marcus Tullius Cicero
by Stuck in the Plains on Oct 10, 2010 5:41 PM EDT reply actions
10 bowl teams will take some doing
I have a hard time seeing six wins for Vandy and Ole Miss. So the SEC needs Kentucky, Georgia, and Tennessee to pull through. So what do we need?
Georgia beats: Kentucky, Vandy, Idaho State, and Georgia Tech (or upsets Auburn/Florida).
Tennessee beats: Memphis, Ole Miss, Vandy, and Kentucky (or upsets Bama/Carolina. hahahaha).
Kentucky beats: MSU, Charleston Southern, and Vandy (no upsets allowed, unless it’s Carolina).
So basically, everyone has to beat Vandy. UT and UGA also have to beat Kentucky, a crap team, and a mediocre team. Kentucky has to lose to the other two but still beat Mississippi State. All doable, but very little margin for error.
by Incipient_Senescence on Oct 11, 2010 12:32 AM EDT reply actions
SEC pecking order
has to be Auburn, USC, Alabama, then Arkansas based on head to head matchups (with LSU falling somewhere in there). I really don’t see how you can see it any other way at this point.
Ranking
Auburn – undefeated and beast USC. Quality win judging from Saturday.
LSU – Would have come in first but threw their helmets and forgot to spike the ball with a game on the line. You can’t be #1 just for NOT being total idiots this week.
South Carolina – Should be #2 but have a loss.
Alabama – beware all those on the rest of their schedule.
Arkansas – has the most room for upward mobility because they still have the top three on this list to play.
Path to 10 bowl teams
UGA beats Tech, Vandy, Idaho State, and upsets Florida.
Kentucky beats Vandy, UT, and remaining non-con.
State takes care of Kentucky and the Rebs.
Ole Miss beats UL-Laff, Tenn, and scores an upset on Auburn or LSU.
I don’t think anyone is worried about Bama, Ark, Sakerlina, LSU, Fla, and Auburn.
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I give the way the Vols can make it happen
You give the way the Rebs can make it happen. No surprises there. Although both are long shots at this point.
by Incipient_Senescence on Oct 11, 2010 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
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