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Why Did Jevan Snead Declare for the NFL Draft?

There was another departure from the SEC in the last 10 days, aside from Lane Kiffin's chaotic exit from Knoxville, that caused more than a few people to scratch their heads. As Alabama and Texas prepared to play for the national title in Pasadena, Ole Miss quarterback Jevan Snead decided to declare for the NFL Draft.

This was not a complete surprise, though in the sense that it is not a complete surprise when someone threatens to set their own hair on fire and proceeds to do so. Jevan Snead and Houston Nutt were known to be discussing whether he would enter the draft; he had begun 2009 as one of the top quarterback prospects in the country before this:


Passing
GRatingCompAttPctYdsY/GY/ATDINTINT PCT
2009 - Jevan Snead 13 124.81 191 351 54.4 2632 202.5 7.5 20 20 5.7


While the rating numbers and completion percentages aren't great, what has to be even more troubling to any NFL team seriously considering drafting Snead are the interceptions. The 20 picks "leads" the subdivision and account for almost 6 percent of Snead's pass attempts; his touchdown-to-interception ratio is one-to-one. And he's going to a league where what we in college football would call a "slightly open receiver" is referred to as a "broken coverage."

Star-divide

Snead's decision almost certainly isn't unprecedented; when a 20-something athlete is told by agents and the like that he could be making millions of dollars in three months, he's generall going to listen. But it's difficult to find anyone in the last five years that entered the draft after being among the Top 5 in the subdivision in interceptions -- and impossible to name a quarterback who did so as a junior.

Interceptionleadersinthedraft_medium
Click to read.

In five years, of 27 players who were either in the Top 5 or tied for it in interceptions thrown, only seniors entered the NFL Draft. And only one of the six who did ended up getting drafted or playing in an NFL game: Matt Ryan. And because he threw the ball 654 times in his senior season -- no, you didn't misread that -- the 19 interceptions were only 2.9 percent of his attempts. That's about half Snead's rate in his senior season. Jevan Snead does have some potential at the next level -- but so far, he's been no Matt Ryan.

But maybe Snead will be Matt Ryan at the next level. After all, the Falcons quarterback actually threw interceptions at a lower rate in his first NFL season than he did in his last year of college. (We won't talk about his second year in the League, okay?) It could happen. But Ryan is a rarity even among his first-round colleagues.

Firstroundinterceptions_medium
Again, click on the image and I promise it will be legible.

About eight of the quarterbacks drafted in the first round from the 2005 draft to this year's have seen significant playing itme in their first  year. Ryan is the only one to see his interception rate decrease. Alex Smith, Joe Flacco (FCS), Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman all saw their rate at least double. (Note to Sanchez: Pete Carroll was right when he said you weren't ready for the NFL. The jury is still out on him.) All but one of those five players were juniors.

Of course, there's very little question about why Jevan Snead actually declared for the draft. There might not be an NFL in 2011 -- admittedly, that's unlikely -- and even if there is, one of the proposals to try to save that season includes a rookie pay cap that could see as much as $200 million go from first-year players to veterans.

But Jevan Snead probably shouldn't have been worrying about that. If history is any indicator, he won't be drafted high enough to worry about how much money he might lose. And even if he is, he's in for a long first year.

0 recs  |  Comment 17 comments |

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Ryan Mallett

I wonder if he will read this and think how smart he is?

by T-towner on Jan 18, 2010 10:57 AM EST reply actions  

FWIW

Sanchez was right in going pro. Maybe not right in a sense that he is a better QB than he would have been had he stayed, but given where he was drafted, it is impossible to say he made a big mistake. He would not be going much higher this year, if at all higher, and that’s one more year’s worth of NFL money that he has than he would have had by staying with Pete.

Of course, your point is also right, he probably wasn’t ready to go pro, and would probably have been more ready had he stayed.

"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog." - Bear Bryant

by NJBammer on Jan 18, 2010 11:56 AM EST reply actions  

remaing team

considering that the rebel offense will be losing mccluster, hodge, three of the five starters on the O line, and the starting TE, his numbers may get even worse next season….

by delta_reb on Jan 18, 2010 7:07 PM EST reply actions  

Completely agree

Not to mention the fact that, like most SEC fan-bases, OM fans don’t usually treat players who under-achieve like that very kindly. I would hate to see more of the “rumors” that he got decked on the square for smarting off to an unhappy fan.

by Any Given Thursday on Jan 19, 2010 10:27 PM EST up reply actions  

I love the SEC

And im a UF fan, I really hope Alabama’s offence can put up some production. I want a rematch of this year. Hopefully this wont hurt them too much.

by kujo24 on Jan 18, 2010 8:30 PM EST reply actions  

We are guaranteed a rematch

The Gators are coming to Tuscaloosa this year. FWIW, I hope we end up with UGA in the SECCG. No offense but we have yet to play in an SECCG against any other team. Add in the regular season matchup and another game vs UF(assuming BAMA wins both) will not help us any.

Auburn and Tennessee fans are a lot like Slinkys...neither are worth much but you do get a sense of satisfaction from pushing them down a flight of stairs

by bamachine on Jan 19, 2010 2:09 AM EST up reply actions  

Given Houston Nutt's general track record with QB development

I can’t blame him too much. A good combine can make up for a multitude of collegiate sins anyway.

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by Year2 on Jan 18, 2010 9:39 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Maybe a case where rumor doesn't fit real world

I understand Nutt’s reputation for lacking good QB development. However, Jevan experienced significant regression as a quarterback, which is something new for Houston, but not something new to football. Quarterbacks progress and regress regularly based upon their internal qualities and the talent that surrounds them. The story of Snead 2009 was, more or less, written when South Carolina’s defensive line had their way with the Rebel offensive front.

My read – as an unconnected Rebel – is that during Snead and Nutt’s discussions about his future (NFL or Ole Miss), Snead likely asked “Will I be the starting quarterback in 2010?” and Nutt responded, “I don’t know. Will you?”

Remember, Houston Nutt is the guy that benched undefeated Mitch Mustain for Casey Dick. This is a coach that – for better or worse – is not afraid to put a quarterback in permanent time-out. He did, after all, tell the Cotton Bowl press that Jevan was benched not for injury, but because he was playing poorly. And redshirt freshman backup Nathan Stanley looked no worse than Snead pulling replacement duty.

I suspect that Jevan had a few NFL teams tell him that they will take him sometime during Day 2. I also suspect that Nutt was up-front with Snead about his prospects for starting in 2010 (likely, but not promised). I, further, suspect that Snead considered the probably depleted state of the Ole Miss offense in 2010. Coupling these facts and supposed facts together, his decision seems quite rational.

Red Cup Rebellion - Changing the culture of Ole Miss Athletics
Destroying your traditions since [YEAR REDACTED].

by Ivory Tower on Jan 18, 2010 11:08 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

absolutely

I think a mediocre quarterback from a 9-win team looks much better than a mediocre quarterback from a 5-win team.

Hey, I didn't get a harrumph out of that guy

by Sir Francis Drank on Jan 20, 2010 1:23 AM EST up reply actions  

Something New for Houston????

Ask any knowledgable Arkansas fan if Houston Nutt develops or destroys his quarterbacks confidence and all around capability. If you look at all the Razorback quarterbacks from 1998 to 2007, you will be hard pressed to see ANY of them develop and improve year-over-year under Nutt. Snead could not have thought anything positive would happen in his third year under his tutelage.

by T-towner on Jan 20, 2010 2:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Judging by some of the picks in last year’s draft, a good combine can make up for anything, right up to mutiny on the high seas… especially in the hands of the “right” front office. Come on down, Mr Heyward-Bey! (Not that I’m saying he’s a mutineer, mind you, though you never can tell with former Terps – a shifty lot, them.)

by peachy rex on Jan 19, 2010 12:25 AM EST up reply actions  

I've followed Snead's career for awhile

Ever since he was committed to UF in high school. I’ve read plenty of interviews and seen plenty of games. He’s always struck me as supremely arrogant, and not exactly the brightest bulb in the box. Perhaps that’s a biased viewpoint, but this is a moronic move.

by Giant Catfish on Jan 19, 2010 3:38 PM EST reply actions  

I say that because...

it’s not just the bad stats. He looked genuinely awful in many games.

by Giant Catfish on Jan 19, 2010 3:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Couldnt have said it any better.

by gatorempire127 on Jan 19, 2010 4:59 PM EST up reply actions  

One

must also consider that he’s already got his degree. It’s a smart move on his part. Nothing left at Ole MIss for him BUT football.

Snead in 2008 WAS a Heisman QB. What happened to him in 2009, is unknown even to Rebel nation.

DAMN IT TO HELL!!! I WAS going to say something nice about LSU... but my clock ran out like theirs did against Ole Miss and Penn State. Dumb coonasses. I bet if they tied corndogs to the clock, they'd keep a better eye on it. heh.

by BimBamOleMissByDamn on Jan 21, 2010 3:43 AM EST reply actions  

could be he knows he won't win a sec cg

i'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. i was building a house, i don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. bang. "unforgiven"

by wolfmanshowlforever on Jan 24, 2010 2:47 PM EST reply actions  

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