2010 Outlook: SEC East
Here's a little scoop on how sportswriters use encoded language in their work. When a conference/division is expected to a close race because a lot of teams look good, it gets labeled as "loaded" or "stacked." That was the case with the SEC West last off season. When it is expected to be a close race because no one is sure how good anyone will actually be, it gets called "wide open."
Well, already I've seen that the SEC East in 2010 is getting the "wide open" label. It's not hard to figure out why.
For the first time in forever, all three of the traditional division kingpins are replacing their quarterbacks. Tim Tebow, Joe Cox, and Jonathan Crompton were all seniors, so none will be back next fall.
We've also seen that coaching turnover is a big story. Florida has lost several assistant coaches, and Urban Meyer is taking an indefinite leave of absence. Georgia fired most of its defensive staff. Tennessee and South Carolina had position coach turnover. Rich Brooks retired from Kentucky for Joker Phillips to take over.
From a talent standpoint, Florida and Georgia open up as the two favorites based on recruiting rankings:
| Team | R 2007 | S 2007 | R 2008 | S 2008 | R 2009 | S 2009 | Avg. |
| Georgia | 9 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 8.00 |
| Florida | 1 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 21 | 8.17 |
| South Carolina | 6 | 7 | 22 | 34 | 12 | 13 | 15.67 |
| Tennessee | 3 | 4 | 35 | 35 | 10 | 8 | 15.83 |
| Kentucky | 54 | 58 | 57 | 53 | 41 | 27 | 48.33 |
| Vanderbilt | 67 | 87 | 90 | 74 | 71 | 72 | 76.83 |
The R is for Rivals and the S is for Scout, natch.
The catch though is that this table doesn't tell the whole story. For one thing, it doesn't include the freshman class of 2010, and there are always a few freshmen that make an impact. For another, this doesn't count in attrition, early draft entrants, and the fact that some players just don't map well to their recruiting rankings for good or bad. Even so, it's not a bad way to start.
There's already been some chatter about South Carolina being a sleeper in the division. Or, at least there was before the Internet Pizza Bowl. However, it's important never to put too much weight on a bowl game since you never know whether a team will show up. South Carolina's post game interviews seem to indicate that they thought that they would win simply because of being an SEC team playing a Big East team, so it's fairly safe to say it's a data point that is not representative of a normal, in-season game.
The talent chart would seem to indicate that South Carolina is a reasonable enough choice as a dark horse. Add to that the returning starter under center and the fact that some of the most important offensive players were quite young in 2009, and there's hope for an improvement on offense. Defense hasn't been that much of an issue under Ellis Johnson so far, so with a jump in offensive production, the Gamecocks could easily make some noise. You also have to wonder if Carolina will ever have a better setup for winning the division than what 2010 initially appears to offer.
So while the issue of whether to bet on South Carolina or not will be a theme, the biggest story of the off season likely will be the drama surrounding Urban Meyer.
It's hard to find anything to compare Meyer's leave of absence to, and the guy minding the shop while he's gone hasn't exactly inspired confidence among the national public. Steve Addazio gets high praise from the staff and got an ovation from the players, but no one outside the program seems to place a lot of faith in him thanks to the underwhelming performance of Florida's 2009 offense relative to expectations.
The leave of absence touches every question you might have about the Gators. How will the offensive overhaul for the John Brantley era go without Meyer there? How good will spring practice and summer workouts go without the real boss around? Will player development take a hit during his absence? How will new defensive coordinator George Edwards integrate into the staff without the head coach present to solidify his connections? And most of all: when exactly will Meyer return? No matter how things continue to go early in this off season, Florida is in uncharted territory here. No one can say for certain what will happen.
It's almost a shame that Georgia will likely end up starting a freshman quarterback, either Aaron Murray or Zach Mettenberger. UGA will have a deep and experienced offensive line, provided that another avalanche of injuries doesn't happen again. The new quarterback will also have a wealth of skill position players around him, between A.J. Green, Washaun Ealey, Caleb King, Marlon Brown, Orson Charles, and Logan Gray. No one else in the division has that much proven talent at the skill positions—not even Florida. The good news is that both Murray and Mettenberger will be redshirt freshmen, so no one will be behind center fresh out of high school.
The new defensive coordinator has some work to do with the exodus of Reshad Jones, Geno Atkins, Jeff Owens, and Rennie Curran. It's not like there's no talent there though, since Mark Richt hauls in top ten recruiting classes year in and year out. There will probably be some kinks early as the new cast of characters get used to the new cast of coaches, but things should get worked out over time.
Tennessee is the great mystery school. On the one hand, the Vols are going into the second year under Lane Kiffin, and schools often get a boost in year two. On the other, UT is losing a ton of great seniors who were major contributors on the team. That bout of personnel loss may be enough to make it so that the second year bump is simply what gets the orange back into the post season again. Sure there's a lot of young talent too, and inexperience is not necessarily a harbinger for sub par play. How far it goes for a team is always a subject of debate.
The quarterback position is perhaps the most interesting battle of all. Nick Stephens apparently never got a shot at starting in 2009 after Crompton beat him out. Does that mean Kiffin was down on him, or just believed in Crompton? Could one of the incoming quarterbacks beat him out if the former was the case? How he handles the whole team is important, but this transition will be the most watched since it's the highest profile spot on a football team. I'm also interested to see if Kiffin has a new angle for this season. He can't really surprise anyone with trash talking anymore, and his favorite target is now off limits due to health problems.
When I think about Kentucky, I wonder just how much will change. The character of the team will probably shift, considering that a team's character tends to take after the head coach's, and Rich Brooks and Joker Phillips are very different people. Beyond that, kind of the whole point of naming a head coach in waiting is to ensure a level of consistency and carry over from one coaching regime to the next. Until and unless recruiting picks up greatly though (take another look at that table above), any changes will largely be cosmetic with UK little better than on the edge of bowl eligibility year in and year out.
As far as Vanderbilt goes, I have a hard time seeing 2010 going as badly as 2009 did. The Commodores had a rash of injuries this past year, and no team in the SEC is as ill-prepared to deal with that than VU. Plus, last year's nice freshman class, led by the sensational Warren Norman, will be a year older and a year better. Vandy flat out is better than a 2-10 program now. How much better is the main question for 2010.
Predicting who will win a division when not everyone's coaching staff is filled out and some players are still deciding on whether to turn pro or not is flagrantly premature. If you pushed me today, I'll agree with the chart that Florida and Georgia are the early favorites, though I'll need to take a close look at South Carolina. In any event, we should not see a rerun of 2009 where one team runs away with it and clinches the division before November.
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Comments
"Urban Meyer is taking an indefinite leave of absence."
For all the talk about “when will he be coming back?” it seems to me the first question should be “when is he leaving?”
by NCT on Jan 11, 2010 2:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Pardon me ...
I should have included: Very good early summary. Thanks.
by NCT on Jan 11, 2010 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Great summary
You took very good and objective angles at all of the, uh…. angles for each team.
by marktheshark on Jan 11, 2010 3:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I didn't realize that Georgia had that much coming back on offense
Just that they were losing their QB and their DC (the latter is probably addition by subtraction, although it may take a while to get used to the new defensive system).
Tennessee has a lot coming back at the skill positions. Bryce Brown is a sophomore, and the top three WRs (one of which is a TE) in Gerald Jones, Denarius Moore, and Luke Stocker are all seniors this year (not mentioning what some are heralding as perhaps the best WR recruiting class of all time). However, an offensive line that struggled this season loses four starters. On defense, only four guys are gone, but that includes the best DB (ER-IC BER-RY!), the best LB, and both DTs.
I’d say UT’s success will depend on the play of the O-line and the DTs. The Vols should be stacked at DE, and injuries have yielded a lot of experienced depth at LB and DB. But DT is a HUGE question mark. On offense, the RBs and WRs should be fine, and everyone in Knoxville now believes that Kiffin’s staff can develop a QB. So will a green (but probably talented) O-line be as good as (or better than) an experienced but undersized O-line that got destroyed on a couple memorable occasions this year (see: kicking against ’Bama and the whole game against VT)? That will be the biggest factor in determining whether Tennessee is in the mix for the SEC East crown or struggling for another 7-5 season.
by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 11, 2010 3:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I just don’t see Tennessee competing for the East crown until 2011. Last season was the transitional year, this year is the personnel turnover hell year, and then 2011 is when everything will be lined up with the team more than 75% composed of Kiffin/Orgeron recruits.
UT will certainly be feisty in 2010, there’s no doubt about it. I just think its shortcomings will be too much to overcome. I think at least one of Florida/Georgia will lose two or fewer conference games, and it may be a bit much to ask Tennessee to go 3-2 or better against Florida, Georgia, Alabama, LSU, and South Carolina.
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by Year2 on Jan 11, 2010 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would predict 2-3 in those five games
So it would come down to whether or not this is a year where there’s a large tie at 5-3. If Florida or Georgia can go 6-2, I think that’d be good enough to win. However, I think 3-2 is not out of the question, just not the most likely outcome.
I agree that UT will probably not win the East next year, but I do see them competing well with the teams who have their eyes on the division crown. I’d hardly call this hellish personnel turnover, especially on defense (UT loses four on D, six on offense), but I do think there are two positions (DT and O-line) which will probably hold the Vols back. Everything else is in place for a run at the East title. Realistically, those two positions won’t be in place until 2011, as you said. But if young guys come in and make a big impact (keep in mind that those positions are notoriously tough for freshmen), then UT could be a surprise winner of the East. If not, I think 8-4 is a reasonable expectation.
The only reason I’m not as quick to write UT off is that I think similar things can be said about the other teams in the division. I have no faith in Georgia, people keep telling me that Florida will fall hard, and USC is USC until proven otherwise. My money is on Florida, but if they fall seriously (say, three conferences losses), then somebody will have to step up. I just don’t know that I find Georgia or USC significantly more like to do that than Tennessee.
by Incipient_Senescence on Jan 11, 2010 4:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Florida’s returning 4 of 5 on the O line, every running back, a ton on the defensive line, two linebackers with lots of starting experience, and three of four (or four of five, depending on how you look at it) in the secondary. There’s a question at receiver again, but John Brantley should be fine since he’s a blue chipper (UF stole him from Texas) and is in his fourth year in the program. Plus, there’s a lot of young guys from all those top recruiting classes ready to contribute.
The only way Florida falls that hard is if A) Charlie Strong alone was the defense, and B) Tebow alone was the offense. A is unlikely to be completely true, and B is definitely not.
Team Speed Kills
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by Year2 on Jan 11, 2010 5:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Correction
Make that two of four/three of five with the news about Major Wright.
Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog
by Year2 on Jan 11, 2010 6:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Best case scenario for Georgia is this:
- The offense is an experienced, clock-eating machine with big play capability
- Walsh/Butler keep doing their thing
- The defense and KO coverage turn performance knobs from “rancid” to “good enough”
Could be good enough to win the East next year, though not other years.
by D.N. Nation on Jan 11, 2010 5:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Your third point
is very telling. We really were the worst at some things… the absolute worst. If we were just mediocre we should def be a favorite alongside Florida to take the east. I mean, how does a team that routinely gives the ball up on the 40 (esp after a big touchdown) have a kicker leading the SEC in touch backs? How is that possible?
Hopefully the Defense/Special Teams hires make an impact. Hell, we truthfully cannot get worse (at least in TO margin) so any effort at all will be an improvement. And improvement means shot at the crown
by knowshon loves legos on Jan 11, 2010 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good Read.
I think people are underrated just how talented Florida’s entire roster has become under Urban Meyer and I expect the team to be solid by the time they enter SEC play next season. Could Georgia, South Carolina or Tennessee rise up and snatch the East in 2010? Sure. Would I bet against the Gators retaining their crown? Absolutely not.
"A player who conjugates a verb in the first person singular cannot be part of the squad, he has to conjugate the verb in the first person plural. We. We want to conquer. We are going to conquer. Using the word 'I' when you're in a group makes things complicated." ~ Wanderley Luxemburgo, 1999
by ejruiz on Jan 11, 2010 5:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Doesn't UF have the #1 recruiting class on Rivals and Scout?
Im almost positive they do. Which may change those recruiting numbers quite a bit. But still, Georgia and Florida looks to be a good rivalry game next year.
by kujo24 on Jan 11, 2010 5:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
For now
We’ll see how the final classes round out.
Team Speed Kills
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by Year2 on Jan 11, 2010 6:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The chart doesnt list 2010
But for fun I guess you could factor in this years #1. Theres still a lot of time left, I suppose the few 5 stars that are left could change that chart slightly. Even before UF got three 5 stars last weekend they were still rated pretty high. So dont expect much drop if any at all even if Bama or Texas get some more blue chips.
"I meant to misspell that word, just observing who would correct me."
by Hook85 on Jan 12, 2010 1:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
as it does every year
but UGA rarely shows up.
by knowshon loves legos on Jan 11, 2010 6:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
my guess is urban meyer will take one year off.
considering how many payback games there are in the sec i would expect no quarter on the gators from georgia, south carolina, arkansas and whoever else they play. i’m not sure how the sec rotation goes. i could see the gators having a year like usc did. i don’t think that would be good for meyer’s health. i say he takes one year off.
i'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. i was building a house, i don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. bang. "unforgiven"
by wolfmanshowlforever on Jan 11, 2010 7:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
You assume Georgia, South Carolina et al are capable of meting out the Stanford treatment, which is a pretty large assumption at this point. Bama’s the only team on the schedule that appears capable of delivering a hammering, and Florida is looking for payback against them.
by peachy rex on Jan 11, 2010 7:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Are you suggesting . . .
. . . that the talent gap between Florida and Georgia is even remotely as large as the talent gap between Southern California and Stanford? If not, why wouldn’t Georgia be “capable of meting out the Stanford treatment”?
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on Jan 11, 2010 9:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m suggesting that Stanford beat the ever-living daylights out of USC. Do you see UGA doing that to Florida? (Also, I think you’re over-stating the talent gap between USC and Stanford – it’s not like the trees were the only team to pound on the Trojans, so clearly this wasn’t a vintage USC squad for whatever reason.)
by peachy rex on Jan 11, 2010 10:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure
I know this is a homer pick (so sue me), but how does Georgia not beat Florida next season? If Richt can’t beat Florida in a year where it loses its Defensive coordinator, a large percentage of its defensive starters, as well as its heralded 3 1/2 year QB, along with both main receiving options (TE and Cooper), AND at least one of its starting offensive linemen, then Georgia might as well fire Richt right now.
Add to all that the fact that there’s a very good chance that Meyer may not be coaching in the game (I still think his family gets the better of him and he sits the year out)? Georgia better win that game, or regardless of his other qualities we should give Richt the boot. Can’t beat them in likely the closest thing to a down year Florida will have for the next couple years? Sorry, but you’ve got to go.
And if Richt isn’t spoiling for a bruising versus Tennessee, then the man has no heart. After being embarrassed by Kiffykins in Knoxville last year, he’d better put up a fight this year versus what realistically is still a less talented team overall.
by blackertai on Jan 12, 2010 3:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The way things are looking, Meyer is taking a year off. I know I know, HC lie lie lie. Any ways, if u want to look at something besides cliches. Urban has told many he expects to be back by August. He told Matt Elam to have faith in him. Its not too far of a reach to think he believes he will be back thus telling players to have faith. If he thought different why would he even care. As someone else said…when will his leave even start?
Gators cab have four losses and that still wont make them anything like a USC fall from great ness. USC finished in the top five 7-8 seasons in a row. UF has not been that consistent every year. After 06’ we had a 4 loss season, then 08’ one loss, so 3-4 losses in 10’ isnt going to schock us fans….with these super recruits we landed 11’ might be another scary year for opposing SEC teams.
John Brantley, hes no Matt Barkley. Expect the Gators to contend.
"I meant to misspell that word, just observing who would correct me."
by Hook85 on Jan 12, 2010 1:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
*Meyer ISNT
"I meant to misspell that word, just observing who would correct me."
by Hook85 on Jan 12, 2010 1:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Florida is even an enigma to me
I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if the Gators went 11-1.
Of course, I also wouldn’t be too surprised if the Gators went 7-5. Hell, even 5-7 doesn’t seem entirely out of the question.
The toughest game and only SURE loss, as I see it, is in Tuscaloosa against the Tide. The games against Tennessee, LSU, Florida State and Georgia will also be interesting. Out of that batch, I think Tennessee probably has the best chance of beating the Gators. Outside of those games, I think South Carolina and USF also have outside shots at beating the Gators (though with Leavitt’s firing, I think USF’s chances at an upset took at hit).
Gator Bait: The first, and still the best.
by colombo259 on Jan 11, 2010 9:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Not to ask a dumb question
But why is everyone so sure that ’Bama’s going to be as good next year? They’re losing a good portion of their defense, which kept them in plenty of games this year. Granted, Ingram and Richardson return, but unless that offense finally starts making Julio Jones live up to all the hype that everyone seems to believe about him, they’re going to lose at least one game in conference. Everyone knows exactly what they want to do, and eventually somebody will stop the run and MAKE them pass. When that happens and they’re only so-so at it, Someone will take advantage.
by blackertai on Jan 12, 2010 3:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Because of all the guys coming back on offense and the assumption that Nick Saban can make the new defensive personnel work. I don’t get the folks picking the Tide preseason No. 1 already, but I can certainly buy Bama as the favorite in the West.
Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog
by Year2 on Jan 12, 2010 8:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Even
With Mallet coming back for year 3 under Petrino? I think with the strides Arkansas made last year, and with that offense clicking, they could be really, really dangerous. Especially for a team like Alabama losing alot of defensive starters. Trying to keep up with an experienced Arkansas could be ugly for McElroy.
by blackertai on Jan 12, 2010 6:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Arkansas’ offense wilted against every good defense it faced. Call me unconvinced so far.
Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog
by Year2 on Jan 12, 2010 8:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So....
You don’t credit Florida’s defense as good? Because I sure remember them only losing because of some ref-aided bull-sh*t that wasn’t necessarily related to the fact that offense wasn’t working. Granted they didn’t pour points on Florida, but it was a season high against them at the time, if I remember correctly.
by blackertai on Jan 14, 2010 1:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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