Ten Games That Will Shape the SEC: No. 1 -- Alabama at Ole Miss
by cocknfire on Sep 2, 2009 3:00 PM EDT
in SEC Football
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PrintThe Game: Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi Rebels, Oct. 10
What's at Stake: The lead in the SEC West. Whoever wins this game will be the best bet to play in Atlanta. Only a loss to LSU could possibly derail the winner, since the head-to-head win will allow for a mistake against Arkansas or Auburn. (Alabama will have already played the Hogs at this point.) No game in October is an elimination game for anything -- but the victor will probably control its own fate.
Where It Falls on Alabama's Schedule: Almost squarely in the middle. While tilts against Virginia Tech and Arkansas could be difficult, the Tide also has three relatively easy games against Florida International and North Texas and at Kentucky. Afterwards come home contests against South Carolina and Tennessee before a bye.
Where It Falls on Ole Miss's Schedule: After a stretch that could easily see the Rebels go 4-0, with games at Memphis, against Southeastern Louisiana, at South Carolina and at Vanderbilt. The only question is whether the possible land mines in Columbia and Nashville will leave Ole Miss banged up enough to lose to the Tide, or even with a disappointing loss that could deflate the season's promise.
What Happened This Past Season: Alabama strolled to a 24-3 lead at halftime and then seemed to sleepwalk through the second half, as Ole Miss scored 17 in the second half and saw its chance at victory end only when Jevan Snead's pass to Dexter McCluster fell incomplete with a minute to play and the Rebels on the Alabama 43. Ole Miss gained 265 of its 359 yards of offense in the second half.
What Will Decide the Game This Year: Maybe a single, game-swinging play. These two teams are, at least in the mind of your humble correspondent, thisclose to one another. A turnover, long TD or special-teams disaster could be difference.
Alabama Will Probably Win If ... The Tide defense can shut down the Ole Miss offense. The Rebels won only two of the six games in which they scored fewer than 30 points last year, and while the defense is good, Ole Miss' chances will still come down to Snead, McCluster and the rest of the offense.
Ole Miss Will Probably Win If ... The offensive line can hold back the Tide. Give Jevan Snead time and Cordera Eason some room, and it will be far easier to score enough points to come out of Tuscaloosa in control of the West.
Conclusion: I'm one of those who really likes Ole Miss this year, and I go back and forth on this game. But I have to stay with my initial pick: A narrow win for Alabama. Their defense is good enough to minimize the damage by the Ole Miss offense and should allow the Tide to score just enough to come out ahead.
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PREVIOUS INSTALLMENTS
No. 2 -- LSU at Alabama (Earlier Today)
No. 3 -- Georgia vs. Florida (Jacksonvile)
No. 4 -- LSU at Ole Miss
No. 5 -- Florida at LSU
No. 6 -- LSU at Georgia
No. 7 -- South Carolina at Georgia
No. 8 -- Tennessee at Florida
No. 9 -- Auburn at Tennesee
No. 10 -- Kentucky at Vanderbilt
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Welllll...
As someone who believes that LSU will win the West, I can’t say I agree.
"A player who conjugates a verb in the first person singular cannot be part of the squad, he has to conjugate the verb in the first person plural. We. We want to conquer. We are going to conquer. Using the word 'I' when you're in a group makes things complicated." ~ Wanderley Luxemburgo, 1999
The fact that LSU has more games on this list than any other team to me suggests that nobody can really get a read on the Tigers.
LSU could very well represent the West in ATL this year, but there are just too many question marks combined with the toughest schedule in the West to predict it.
Sure, call me a homer...
…but I can’t believe that, with its schedule this year, Arkansas does not have ONE game of major impact on the SEC race. Are KY vs Vandy or Auburn @ TN really bigger than the Razorbacks vs. GA (who, in a “rebuilding year” got 3 games mentioned) in week 3, featuring Ryan Mallett’s SEC debut and the first real test for the Hogs new defense? How about our games at AL, FL, Ole Miss, or LSU? If the ‘Backs beat even one of those teams at their place, their SEC (not to mention national) title hopes are seriously damaged. If Arkansas wins two or more, then the Hogs themselves most likely be at least SEC West title contenders. I don’t know what kind of team AR will have, but these games will definitely “shape the SEC” this year.
I get what you're saying
First of all, I intentionally avoided using the word “big,” because these aren’t necessarily the “biggest” games in the SEC this year. Many of them would also be on that list, but those lists aren’t identical. So, no, Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt and Auburn at Tennessee aren’t “bigger” than Arkansas vs. Georgia. But they definitely will help define those teams seasons and the narratives that drive the SEC this year.
Here’s the problem I have with Arkansas: They mystify me. For all I know, they could end up playing in Atlanta, though I highly doubt it. I could also see them going 5-7, though I also think that’s unlikely. Because of that, it’s hard for me to peg where they might play in their own division and how that might or might not “shape” the conference.
I’m pretty sure, particularly if they get past South Carolina, that the Dawgs will be the only ones who can take down Florida in the East. And I’m also fairly confident that Alabama-Ole Miss-LSU will decide the West. If Arkansas sneaks into that equation, I’m not sure which game(s) they would need to win in order to do it — which makes it hard to pick one or two to put on this list.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
Thanks...
…for a reasoned response. We agree that the Hogs are perhaps the SEC’s biggest mystery this year, in that their record could easily swing more than anybody else’s. A talented but rusty Mallett is an unproven commodity at qb. Arkansas’ lack of depth in both lines and the d-backfield could bite us on the rear (hey, thanks for nothing, HDN!) Among the other expected contenders Georgia, Alabama, and LSU have the next largest question marks (interestingly enough, all include qb.) Weeks 3-8 will make or break Arkansas’ season, without a doubt, and that is to take nothing away from games with good South Carolina and LSU teams later.
I would suggest then that the AR-Georgia game may indeed shape the conference. A Razorback win provides some much-needed confidence going in to Tuscaloosa the next week, and a victory for the Dawgs in Fayetteville might still allow them to prove they are really challengers to Florida, regardless of the outcome of two tough games with OK State and South Carolina.
Consider: KY and Vandy (Game #10), of course, both play GA, but neither plays AR this year; and neither appear likely to influence the SEC East as much as Arkansas could with its games against FL, GA, and SC. Because it is an early season test that may determine if either or both teams are contenders or pretenders, I have to believe the AR-GA game merits inclusion on the list. Unlike many fans, however, I don’t think you’re an idiot (or worse) for disagreeing with me! I appreciate your thoughts and look forward to a great season of SEC football—the best around!
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