Draft of the Other BlogPoll Ballot
With cocknfire putting out his draft ballot yesterday, I figured it was about time to put mine together. I am philosophically opposed to preseason ballots so I'm not thrilled about doing this, but I feel a sense of responsibility now that I'm (half) a BlogPoll voter.
Before I throw it at you, I want to explain my methodology. The only other time I have done a preseason top 25 was 2007, and despite the chaos of that year, mine was the most accurate among the so-called experts. I don't say that to toot my own horn as much as I do to validate the methodology. It worked then, I'm hoping it works out now.
First, I created a pool of poll candidates. I put every Big 6 conference team in a spreadsheet and then threw in every non-Big 6 conference team that has gotten any love this preseason. From there, I deleted every obvious "no" from that list (i.e. say goodbye, Washington State). That left me with about 35 or so teams left.
Now, I know from looking that every team that has finished in a final poll since the twelfth game became permanent in 2006 has had at least nine wins. I then looked at the schedules of the iffy teams and asked two questions to whittle the list down to 25: can this team win nine games this year, and if they do, will I care? The former was to weed out those who I didn't think would get to that nine win plateau specifically (teams with a hypothetical 8-4 regular season and a bowl win making nine were not rejected outright), and the latter was to weed out those that might get to nine on the back of a weak schedule.
Here was the initial pool of 25:
ACC: Clemson, Georgia Tech, UNC, Virginia Tech
Big 12: Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech
Big Ten: Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State
Pac-10: Cal, Oregon, USC
SEC: Florida, Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss
Non-Big 6: BYU, TCU, Utah, Boise State
Next, I put these teams into five categories: elite, very good, pretty good, decent, and filler.
Elite: Florida, Texas
Very Good: Alabama, LSU, Ohio State, Oklahoma, USC
Pretty Good: Boise State, Cal, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, Oregon, Penn State, TCU, Virginia Tech
Decent: BYU, Georgia, Iowa, Nebraska, UNC
Filler: Clemson, Michigan State, Texas Tech, Utah
Don't get too caught up on the last two category names; they're still teams I think are among the top 25 in the country. Also note that the above lists are purely alphabetical so far. These categories are simply for grouping teams to make the poll easier to put together. No one in the Pretty Good category, for instance, will be below a Decent team, but none will be above a Very Good team either.
I also use this part of the method to fool myself into actually ranking how good I think teams are. The categories are also to abstract out the rankings entirely so I can focus on just the groupings and not the numbers. I might end up with a team at, say, 15 and think "wait, that's not a top 15 team" and then go and mess something up. I wanted to get my pure, un-fooled around with thoughts.
Based on the above paragraph, it should not surprise you that I mostly just thin sliced the rankings within the categories. Having done that, I ended up with this for my first draft of a top 25:
- Florida
- Texas
- Oklahoma
- USC
- Alabama
- LSU
- Ohio State
- Penn State
- Ole Miss
- Virginia Tech
- TCU
- Boise State
- Oregon
- Georgia Tech
- Oklahoma State
- Cal
- Iowa
- BYU
- Nebraska
- Georgia
- UNC
- Texas Tech
- Clemson
- Michigan State
- Utah
I can tell you right now I'm not satisfied with a few things, but that kind of was the point. Anyhow, fire away in the comments, keeping in mind that this is just a draft of a preseason poll.
As a voter I promise two things: 1) I will not blindly follow last week's rankings and instead reconsider things as necessary, and 2) I will not automatically move a team down for losing to a higher ranked team. The second practice among voters especially irks me, because for instance, if No. 20 loses to No. 1, weren't you already expecting that? Why would you automatically move No. 20 down below teams that played opponents that were below No. 1? Why penalize the schedule instead of evaluating the performance?
This is why we need a playoff of some sort. Voters suck.
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11 comments
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Comments
Nice.
I like the way you went about this. Personally, I think Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, USC and LSU are a cut above the rest. That’s my top five (though maybe not in that exact order) and I’m sticking to it!
"A player who conjugates a verb in the first person singular cannot be part of the squad, he has to conjugate the verb in the first person plural. We. We want to conquer. We are going to conquer. Using the word 'I' when you're in a group makes things complicated." ~ Wanderley Luxemburgo, 1999
by ejruiz on Aug 18, 2009 8:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Go ahead and move Clemson up about 10 spots before the season,
but don’t forget to drop them out of the poll before week four. I mean, I’m just going on past precident over here.
by The Feathered Warrior on Aug 18, 2009 10:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I’m really not happy about those last three. They may be gone by the final version.
Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog
by Year2 on Aug 19, 2009 7:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Please keep underestimating the Bulldogs
I’ll be honest and say that this is a year where the bulldogs could go either way, so anywhere from 13-20 works. But i do have a problem with Boise St. at #12. Really? Boise St.? Now this is not the same Boise St. Team that beat the Chokelahoma Sooners. A Boise State that is without Ian Johnson. Now if losing #24 hurts uga enough to send them back to #20 why in the world does losing Ian Johnson not send the Broncos further down than 12? I mean really look at the teams around them and ask yourself, “Could the Broncos beat these teams more than 50% of the time that they line up against each other.” I would put them at #16 in front of Iowa and behind Cal.
Do you not know that those who run in a race all run, but only one receives the prize? Run in such a way that you may win.
I Corinthians 9:24
by Southern Dawg on Aug 19, 2009 9:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
1. T. Kyle himself has UGA at No. 21, so I won’t be the lowest among poll voters. I think Georgia will have four regular season losses (OSU, UF, LSU, and either South Carolina or Arkansas), so I’m giving the Bulldogs a bowl win to put them that high.
2. Boise State has more talent now than it ever has, I like Kellen Moore, and the defense is legit. On a neutral field, I think BSU could beat any team behind it.
Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog
by Year2 on Aug 20, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Join the proletariat
Up with the workers’ candidate of Nevada! Down with the despots from Boise! ;)
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
by cocknfire on Aug 20, 2009 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dude, Boise has been my favorite non-BCS program to watch since about 2002. After 2006, I suddenly understood how indie rock fans feel when their favorite band gets signed to a major record label. I’ve been there since the Ryan Dinwiddie/Tim Gilligan days. All these Zabranksy/Ian Johnson era bandwagoneers can shove it.
Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog
by Year2 on Aug 21, 2009 8:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It wasn't a complaint....more of a request.
Do you not know that those who run in a race all run, but only one receives the prize? Run in such a way that you may win.
I Corinthians 9:24
by Southern Dawg on Aug 21, 2009 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
1. On the Predicted losses, OSU UF and LSU you have legitimate arguments for (even if i do consider OSU overrated) , but forgive me if i’m a little bit skeptical on whether SC has any offense, or Arkansas enough Defense to beat the dawgs.
2. I haven’t paid as much attention to Boise St.‘s talent as much as you have so I’ll just take your word on it (its obviously more than uga’s in your opinion)
Either way we will find out quickly in the first week where both of these teams fall in the pecking order.
Do you not know that those who run in a race all run, but only one receives the prize? Run in such a way that you may win.
I Corinthians 9:24
by Southern Dawg on Aug 21, 2009 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wait a minute
I think South Carolina will lose the Georgia game, mostly because I have come to always expect we will lose that game. But, um, really?!?
forgive me if i’m a little bit skeptical on whether SC has any offense
While that’s a valid point depending on how down one is on Garcia, forgive me if I find that a little bit pot meet kettle coming from a fan of a team that lost more than 95 percent of its offense from last year.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
by cocknfire on Aug 22, 2009 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whenever I talk to UGA fans in the pre-season,
they never see any losses in the future for their team. If “Wait till next year” is our familiar refrain, Georgia’s is “Who’s going to beat us?” Just don’t sleep on the Gamecocks, I’m confident about our ability to make a close game of the tilt in Athens this year.
by The Feathered Warrior on Aug 22, 2009 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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