SEC 2009 // Florida Goes for Lucky No. 14
by cocknfire on Aug 13, 2009 11:00 AM EDT
in SEC Football
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PrintC&F's predictions for the Florida Gators.
Finish: National Champion, SEC Champion, SEC East Champion
General: The only question, really, is whether Florida can go undefeated. Sure, some contrarian streaks are going to emerge here and there, telling you that Florida is not a lock for Atlanta -- nonsense -- and that the Gators aren't the prohibitive favorites to make the national title game. These are the same people that do this sort of thing all the time, because no one will remember if you got it wrong, but you get to hold it over everyone's head forever if you get it right. ("Well, if you'll remember, when everyone was jumping on Florida's wagon 28 years ago ... ") To those contrarians: Tell me one game that Florida shouldn't be favored in. And give me an argument that you actually believe. Then we'll talk. (And I'm serious. I'd love to hear any thoughts on a game that Florida actually might lose in the comments.) I thought for a moment about calling the national title game, but I haven't gone through this exercise for every conference, so I'm not confident enough to make a specific call. Right now, I'd say you have to give Florida the edge to win that game and go 14-0 for its first perfect season.
More specific:I have said before that I tried not to mark down too many league games as sure wins for anyone. Then again, show me a game here marked as a "WIN" that you would argue with. All of those teams are far behind Florida in talent -- yes, even Tennessee -- and some, such as Mississippi State, are so outmanned it shouldn't be a game at halftime. Of course, a team that's supposed to go undefeated and one that actually does are two different things. Trap games: possibly Kentucky or Arkansas (because of LSU) or Mississippi State (because of the history in Starkville and the looming game with Georgia). But any of those are hard to see.
Game-specific:
9.5 :: vs. Charleston Southern :: WIN
9.12 :: vs. Troy :: WIN
9.19 :: vs. Tennessee :: WIN
9.26 :: at Kentucky :: WIN
10.10 :: at LSU :: PROBABLE WIN
10.17 :: vs. Arkansas :: WIN
10.24 :: at Mississippi State :: WIN
10.31 :: vs. Georgia (Jacksonville) :: PROBABLE WIN
11.7 :: vs. Vanderbilt :: WIN
11.14 :: at South Carolina :: WIN
11.21 :: vs. Florida International :: WIN
11.28 :: vs. Florida State :: PROBABLE WIN
12.5 :: SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: vs. Alabama (Atlanta) :: PROBABLE WIN
Final record (pre-SEC Championship Game): 12-0, 8-0 SEC
--
MONDAY: Florida's Song Remains the Same; The Connnectedness of Florida's Heisman Winners
TUESDAY: The Underdogs Florida Will Face; Don't Miss Tebow's Last Year
WEDNESDAY: Meet the New Gators, Same as the Old Gators; Gator Coaching Staff Changes Should Not Be Overlooked
EARLIER TODAY: Tim Tebow's Wikipedia Entry, c. 2070
FRIDAY: Conclusions
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The coaching staff believes the road game at LSU to be the toughest of the year.
Georgia is a concern not because of its remarkable record against defending champions (as that mark covers games across decades with very different teams and coaches) but because of the first point. If they somehow let up because of a win over LSU, the supposed toughest game, they could lose there.
Arkansas falls into the post-LSU trap game role that Ole Miss had post-Tennessee last year, and Michael Smith shredded the defense in 2008’s game. It was close until an Arkansas collapse in the fourth quarter, so it is plausibly worth concern.
FSU is probably the only other team in striking distance (until the SECCG). However, Mickey Andrews has yet to figure out the Florida offense, it comes a week after FIU, and it’s senior day for the legendary 2006 recruiting class. I’d call it the least likely loss of any of these.
Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog
Arky
No way that game is a concern. Petrino does not come to the Swamp and notch a win.
I never remember being concerned against Arkansas last season. They pulled within 10 in the 3rd, but Demps and Rainey were running them ragged.
LSU at night is always going to be a war. I don’t like that UGA has an extra week to prepare and get healthy while UF has to travel to Starkville, but those are the scheduling breaks. I like our chances this season faced with that scenario over any other in recent memory.
Last year, no one was concerned about a team that had lost to Wake Forest and Vanderbilt either, but Ole Miss won in the Swamp for Houston Nutt’s first ever win over UF.
I’m not saying Arkansas will win, or even that they’d take more than one or two out of ten. I am saying it sets up as a classic trap game, and Arkansas will have the firepower to challenge the Gator defense. If they’re asleep, it will be a looooong day in Gainesville.
Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog
It is a trap game
Though as a Florida fan I still think I’d be more concerned with Mississippi State if you’re talking “unlikely unheralded team who takes a stunner.”
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
I would, except there is such a huge gap in talent between the teams personnel-wise. Besides, the Florida defensive staff knows inside and out what Dan Mullen is going to try to do. I would be comfortable predicting an easy Florida win even if the first string defense and Tim Tebow sat the game out.
Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog
Completely Agree
I don’t know much about Arkansas’ defense, and I’m guessing it won’t be that good, but Arkansas’ offense will score on almost anyone now that Mallett and Broderick Greene are eligible. I’d say it’s likely to finish as the 3rd best in the conference after Ole Miss (#2) and UF (#1).
If, as you said, Florida coasts in this game, Arkansas could get up quickly and then, even with the Tebow Child, anything could happen.
You certainly can’t point to any one game and say “This is probably where Florida will lose.” But the point of any sane naysayers is that the collective chance of a loss to LSU or a loss to UGa or a loss to FSU or a loss in the SECCG (or a loss to Tennessee or a loss to Kentucky or a loss to Arkansas or a loss to Mississippi State or a loss to Vandy or a loss to USC, because admit it, that’s probably how likely you thought a home loss to Ole Miss was before last season) is enough that you shouldn’t think of Florida as a huge lock.
3 Sep Ducks at Boise State
5 Sep Tigers at Washington
I smell road trip!
Eh
I see what you’re saying — it won’t be easy. But I think the Gators are as well prepared as any team in recent history to beat those odds.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
Plus.....
Urban can just replay the Ole Miss post-game speech before each of those games to ensure that none of those teams are taken lightly.
Agree with AllSaints though – any game on the schedule can be the one (or more) that bites us. That’s why they play the games and we don’t get any championship t-shirts yet…I was ribbing my UGA friends last season asking them if they had bought their “UGA 2008 Preseason National Champions” t-shirts yet.
I wish the season would start already!!
Sadly, FIU scares me.
Irrational, but still. It’s the least likely, and I’m not even sure Tebow and most of the starters will be warmed up for the game. If the second string kids crap the bed… I don’t even want to think about how badly the coaching staff is going to be raked for it.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
If Florida loses to FIU
I’m going to laugh for the next week. Sorry, but that would be hilarious.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
Picking Florida to go undefeated
Means you’re doing it wrong. You might say, “Barring some unforeseen injury/consequences/mishap, who can really beat them?” But that’s the point. Factor in the unforeseen into the equation, and pick one of those games – LSU, UGA, SECCG, State – for Florida to lose.
by Go Hide in the V-berth on Aug 14, 2009 10:37 AM EDT reply actions
But if I don't think they're going to lose one of those games
It’s fundamentally dishonest.
I think Florida will go undefeated this year. Period.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
But if I would hypothetically bet $50 that Florida will not go undefeated against your $50 that Florida will, I’m doing it wrong if I say “I think Florida will go undefeated,” aren’t I?
3 Sep Ducks at Boise State
5 Sep Tigers at Washington
I smell road trip!
by AllSaintsDay on Aug 14, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
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