SEC 2009 // Just Leave Houston Nutt Alone
by cocknfire on Jul 31, 2009 3:08 PM EDT
in SEC Football
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PrintOr, "cocknfire attempts to do math, probably ruins the whole thing"
With Year2 off enjoying his time in Liechtenstein or somewhere, it falls to your humble correspondent if there's a math post to be done. That said, remember that my day job is as a journalist, so any combination of myself and numbers is a bold step forward which will either illuminate the subject or leave me embarrassed and unwilling to even calculate a winning percentage in the future. Heregoes.
Among those who don't consider Ole Miss to be even a viable contender for the SEC West title, the fact that Houston Nutt constantly underachieves is an article of faith. Part of this is grounded in his penchant for coaching teams to bizarre results, like losing to Vanderbilt, defeating the eventual national champion Florida Gators (in Gainesville, no less) and then losing to South Carolina; or losing to Southern Cal by 36, then clinching the SEC West title, then losing three games in row to close out the season.
But has Nutt really underachieved? This is where the math comes in.
I've come around to agreeing with Year2 that the best way to decided "underachievement" or "overachievement" is to look at Pythagorean wins -- which are not really "Pythagorean," but I digress. For those who don't remember, Pythagorean wins essentially take into account how many points you scored over the course of the season and how many points your opponents scored over the course of a season and comes up with how many games you "should" have won.
Because blowouts of cupcake nonconference teams skew any system reliant on point totals, I used only games against BCS-league teams. Otherwise, slaughtering a Sun Belt or BCS team drives up the Pythagorean win total, making the team seem like it should have performed better than it actually should have. Ladies and gentlemen, Houston Nutt:
The red line with any team when it comes to Pythagorean wins is 1. So a team at +1 or better overachieved and a team at -1 or worse underachieved. So despite losing the Vanderbilt and South Carolina games, Ole Miss didn't underachieve that much last year.
In fact, the two seasons that leap out are the Razorbacks of 2005 and 2004 -- teams that, frankly, weren't very good. The 2004 team won back-to-back games just twice (vs. ULM and vs. Alabama; vs. Ole Miss and at Mississippi State) en route to a 5-6 record, while the 2005 squad won just four games overall, with losses including a 53-point annihilation against Southern Cal; one doubts Arkansas fans would have found solace in an extra win.
But in the four seasons in which Nutt was supposed to win around five or more BCS-league games, he only came close to "underachieving" once -- again, last year. (Granted, this is only his career since 2000, but that's as far back as the online NCAA archives go with statistics comprehensive enough to do this. Besides, he took over Arkansas before the 1998 season, so there are only two years missing.)
That's not all. Let's take a look at the other measure of underachievement -- how you did in comparison to expectations by the esteemed voters of the Associated Press? Some of you might think we've got Nutt here -- but we don't.
|
Houston Nutt Teams in the AP Poll |
||
|
Preseason |
Postseason |
|
| Ole Miss 2008 |
NR |
14 |
| Arkansas 2007 |
21 |
NR (31) |
| Arkansas 2006 |
NR |
15 |
| Arkansas 2005 |
NR |
NR |
| Arkansas 2004 |
NR |
NR |
| Arkansas 2003 |
NR |
NR |
| Arkansas 2002 |
NR |
NR |
| Arkansas 2001 |
NR |
NR |
| Arkansas 2000 |
NR |
NR |
| Arkansas 1999 |
22 |
17 |
| Arkansas 1998 |
NR |
16 |
Even Nutt's reputation for pairing the surprising win with an equally puzzling loss isn't all-encompassing. After upsetting then-No. 2 Auburn in 2006, Arkansas would not lose another game until coming up five points short against then-No. 9 LSU seven weeks later. The only other losses that season were to Southern Cal, eventual national champion Florida and No. 12 Wisconsin in the Capital One Bowl. There have been some clunkers -- a 42-29 loss to Kentucky in 2007 is one recent example -- but every coach has a few of those buried in his past.
No, if Houston Nutt surprises, it's generally to the upside. And, given his team's performance in the course of a season, he usually ends up right about where he should.
Over the course of a full season, he meets expectations -- most of the time. With the Rebels believed by many to be among the Top 5 teams in the nation, that should be a comfort for Ole Miss fans this year. In the pressure cooker of the SEC, though, it's certainly not a guarantee.
Not for Nutt, and not for any other coach.
NEXT WEEK: Alabama
--
MONDAY: Ole Miss Aspires to Old Heights
TUESDAY: Rebels Roll Call
WEDNESDAY: Gridiron U Preview
THURSDAY: Ole Miss Has a Quarterback, But Can They Protect Him?; The New Future of Ole Miss
EARLIER TODAY: Rebellious Answers
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No way!
Hooten Dale always loses the big ones!
WOOOOPIGSOOIE
/hogville
On the other hand great article guys. Nice to see someone agree with us from a neutral perspective.
I think you meant to say...
“looses.”
After all, you’re emulating Hogvillian posting.
Red Cup Rebellion - An Ole Miss Blog
Blame the Baptists.
by Juco All-American on Jul 31, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Nutt's Underachievment
So, your theory is that because Nutt was never expected to much of anything…and he responded by not doing much of anything, he didn’t “underachieve.” Excellent work.
Maybe next you’ll regale us with an account of all the times Nutt’s teams “overacheived.” Good luck filling many column-inches with that masterpiece.
Perhaps you should do an investigation into WHY Nutt’s never been expected to do anything. The 2004 & 2005 Razorbacks “frankly, weren’t very good?” Nutt had been the head coach at Arkansas for 6 years…why weren’t his teams very good? Why weren’t they expected to do anything?
If you want to dabble with mathematics, calculate Nutt’s career winning % vs. BCS teams, vs. SEC teams, vs. the SEC East, vs. Georgia, vs. Florida, and in SEC road games. Then let’s see you write a coulmn about what the word “underachievement” really means.
How is it not excellent work?
It proves that the only expectations Nutt wasn’t able to live up to were those heaped on him by the Arkansas fans and media.
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by The Ghost of Jay Cutler on Jul 31, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions
An addendum:
When people say “Nutt never lives up to expectations,” I always ask “what expectations?” I cannot ever get a straight answer.
Please tell me when Houston Nutt has ever coached a team who was a preseason top-10 team with real, legitimate Atlanta or BCS Bowl level expectations from neutral observers.
Red Cup Rebellion - Changing the Culture of Ole Miss Athletics
Take a picture, trick.
by The Ghost of Jay Cutler on Jul 31, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Please tell me when Houston Nutt has ever coached a team who was a preseason top-10 team with real, legitimate Atlanta or BCS Bowl level expectations from neutral observers.
NEVER…and thank you for making my point. In 10 years at Arkansas, Nutt never developed a team that was considered a preseason contender for the SEC-W title or for a BCS berth. Not once. Not even with a backfield featuring McFadden, Jones & Hillis.
Now, what does that say about him as a coach?
What expectations do Ole Miss fans have for Nutt? If he couldn’t develop that contender at Arkansas – where there are superior facilities & double the football revenue (Ark $40MM, OM $18MM) – why would Ole Miss fans think he’ll do better in Oxford than in Fayetteville?
If all Ole Miss fans expect is never having “a preseason top-10 team with a real, legitimate Atlanta or BCS bowl level” team, you’ve got the right man for the job.
Except they already have that
There are a lot of fairly smart football people out there who think that Ole Miss is “a preseason top-10 tem with real, legitimate Atlanta or BCS Bowl level expectations from neutral observers.” Phil Steele, who has them winning the SEC and ranked No. 6, is just one.
You can relitigate whether Nutt should have done more at Arkansas — that’s fine. But he doesn’t have a history of ending up far below where neutral observers — the same folks expecting Ole Miss to be in Atlanta in early December — rank him. That was the point of the post.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
legitimate Atlanta expectations
In his second season Nutt was the preseason pick to win the west and go to Atlanta. I presume it was because he had the main components coming back from the successful 1998 season. He ended the 1999 season 4-4 in the SEC – which included a loss to a very mediocre Kentucky team and a 35-10 loss to a LSU team that went 3-8 overall and 1-7 in the SEC.
It’s only a theory but I think the preseason question of whether it could be expected for Arkansas to do much was subsequently examined with a grain of salt given the 1999 season results.
In sum, I don’t think it can be said that Nutt has never been expected to do anything by the preseason punditry. And even if it can be said that there is a presumption to the contrary given his pre and post season rankings, I think its safe to say those numbers don’t tell the whole story.
Keep in mind that the SEC West was absolutely stacked that year.
Yes, Arkansas was atop the Preseason SEC West, but not by much. FIVE of the six teams in that division garnered first place votes from the media. Link.
Attempting to predict the winner of the 1999 Western Division was a crap shoot, at best.
Red Cup Rebellion - Changing the Culture of Ole Miss Athletics
Take a picture, trick.
by The Ghost of Jay Cutler on Aug 2, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
That's a fact that can clearly be spun both ways
Regardless, I was only answering the challenge you threw out there.
by trip andrews on Aug 2, 2009 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Another thing, wasn't that year the year in which Arkansas was shackled with some major injury issues?
Or was that a year or so later?
Red Cup Rebellion - Changing the Culture of Ole Miss Athletics
Take a picture, trick.
by The Ghost of Jay Cutler on Aug 2, 2009 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not sure
I recall Stoerner playing gimpy a couple of games (due to an injury he received in the fourth quarter of a non-conference game where Arkansas was winning by at least four touchdowns – why he was still in the game is a question no one can seem to answer).*
But I think your question backs up my point that you simply can’t rely primarily on pre and post season rankings in evaluating what a coach’s reasonable expectations were, much less how he met them. To me, as some other commenters have pointed out, you need to look over the course of the entire season which includes a team’s weekly performance, i.e. who they played, ranking at the time, win/loss, etc. That would require a convoluted analysis obviously (one I’m surely not going to do), but that seems to be the nature of the beast.
Lastly, for what its worth, I don’t think preseason rankings mean much of anything, especially for teams ranked outside the top ten. Look at LSU and Auburn last year.
*Please note – Though an Arkansas fan, I am no HDN hater. I respect and appreciate the good that he did for the program while he was here. I don’t think it can be argued that he resurrected the program from a pretty low point (in 1998, Arkansas fans were primarily concerned with just beating SMU). But I also think it was time for him to leave when he did – meaning I personally think he had peaked and I don’t think anyone involved in the fiasco a couple of years ago was without fault, including HDN.
I only bring this specific point up so if you see Jevan going into the game in the 4th quarter when you’re up by a lot, you might want to start worrying about what is going through HDN’s head.
by trip andrews on Aug 3, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
"But I also think it was time for him to leave when he did – meaning I personally think he had peaked"
I agree with that completely.
What a lot (see: 99%) of your fellow Razorbacks cannot comprehend is that many of we Rebels don’t disagree with the sentiment that Nutt had done all he could do in Fayetteville. We also don’t think Petrino is a bad coach. We don’t harbor any ill will towards the Razorback program.
Honestly, the vitriol you may be seeing on our end is 100% a reaction to the seemingly out-of-nowhere e-hatred that has rained down upon us over the last year.
Red Cup Rebellion - Changing the Culture of Ole Miss Athletics
Take a picture, trick.
by The Ghost of Jay Cutler on Aug 3, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
As strange as it sounds
I don’t think the majority of Arkansas fans have anything against Ole Miss or its fans either. Indeed, our football relationship has been pretty cordial, at least as far back as I can remember. Personally, I love Oxford and just hope that I’m coherent enough to audibly order chicken on a stick after this year’s game.
I think the disconnect quite obviously stems from our fans’ general dislike of Houston, which is based in large part on the way he left (if he had left without claiming to “always be a razorback;” without the $1 million “golden handcuffs;” and without taking the ole miss job in 48 hours, I think the vitriol would not be anywhere near the level it is). And the shit-talking, criticism and “taunting” for lack of a better word seems to be a byproduct of that – whether justified or not. I think it’s pretty safe to say Arkansas fans would root against him (and thus his team) wherever he would have landed.
But I understand where you’re coming from and how it can be taken personally at times. I mean, it makes even me a little angry when people try to portray Arkansas as foolish for letting HDN go given his success at Ole Miss (I’m looking at you Tim Brando) when it was quite clear that he probably wouldn’t have had that success anytime soon (or maybe ever again) if he had stayed. Or when people try to portray the entire Arkansas fan base as meddling, obsessed lunatics with unreasonable expectations. I can see how you could think that way if you read nothing but hogville posts about HDN all day, but outside of that, such a perception simply lacks any foundation.
Likewise, I think the general criticism that Ole Miss was stupid for hiring HDN in the first place is equally baseless. Seems to me that y’all were obviously looking for someone to turn the program around as quickly as possible. You obviously couldn’t get much lower than Coach O’s last season. Given that he had done it at Arkansas, it was a sensible move whether it was a gamble or not. And even if it was a gamble, it seems to have paid off considering his success last year.
Now, whether that criticism has any merit if HDN stays for a prolonged period of time can only be proven right or wrong when he’s gone. But that goes for Petrino as well.
Ranking at the time is not better than preseason ranking
To me, you have to look at a team’s postseason ranking. Otherwise, LSU’s win against Auburn is still a big win, because Auburn was ranked at the time.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
I agree
I’m just saying that you’d somehow need to figure out how to take all of them (pre, post, and mid) and make them work. Probably win a nobel prize if you could.
That be turned the other way
The preseason magazine consensus in 2002 was that Arkansas would end up 5th in the division. They ended up second and went to Atlanta in Alabama’s stead. In 2006, they were projected 3rd and won the division outright.
And, as GOJC said, the Arkansas team of 1999 was far from a runaway winner.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
Yeah, those crazy Arkansas fans…expecting to win an SEC title or go to a BCS bowl more than ZERO TIMES in 10 years. Those are some sky-high expectations.
I notice you didn’t bother to present the results of those calculations. C’mon. Show us how great Nutt is and how crazy those Arkansas fans are. Show us Nutt’s winning %…
vs. BCS teams…
vs. SEC teams…
vs. SEC East teams…
vs. Georgia…
vs. Florida…
Hell, show us Nutt’s winning % vs. frikking VANDERBILT!!!!!
Dude....
NOBODY here has said Arkansas should have kept Nutt. NOBODY has said he will do better in the long run at Ole Miss than he did at Arkansas (yes, many are saying that THIS SEASON he has a chance at doing something he didn’t do at Arkansas). NOBODY has admonished fans for wanting their teams to appear in BCS bowls or win championships.
The point of this post is to refute “Nutt can’t when when people expect him to” argument by pointing out that, generally, people do not expect him to win in the first place.
Red Cup Rebellion - Changing the Culture of Ole Miss Athletics
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by The Ghost of Jay Cutler on Aug 1, 2009 8:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I certainly agree
based on what I’ve seen here that you are right about Nutt’s underacheiver label. I would, however, be a little more worried about the overall success of my team than this relatively minor point.
"What happened yesterday is history. What happens tomorrow is a mystery. What we do today makes a difference - the precious present moment." -Nick Saban
by HarveyBirdmanAAL on Aug 2, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
But...
If he doesn’t underachieve to these pre-season expectations, we’ll finish the season in the top ten.
If that happens, I’d say it will have been a successful season… by a lot.
Red Cup Rebellion - An Ole Miss Blog
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by Juco All-American on Aug 3, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
My point was not whether Houston Nutt is a good coach or bad coach
I just get sick of people saying things like, “Ole Miss (or any team) won’t be any good because Houston Nutt (or any coach) always fails to live up to expectations,” or any thing that has (a) no basis in fact and (b) nothing to do with the football actually being played on the field.
You can say Nutt is a bad coach, if you want. I might argue with you, but there’s room for debate on that one. What you can’t say is that he fails to meet expectations.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
Instead of preseason, how about mid-season rank?
I think that really is where Nutt has gotten the underachiever reputation. I seem to recall Arkansas rising all the way into the top 10 several times at some point in the season throughout his career, only to finish the season NR.
That has definitely been the case several times.
But that can be attributed to Houston Nutt doing exactly what he’s notorious for: catching some bigger teams off guard before eventually losing to a team on his level.
Red Cup Rebellion - Changing the Culture of Ole Miss Athletics
Take a picture, trick.
by The Ghost of Jay Cutler on Jul 31, 2009 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Here's the problem I have with that
Teams often fluctuate up and down in the rankings over the course of the season. That’s why you’ll never hear me say something like, "Team x beat seven teams that were ranked when they play them" — or at least I hope you won’t. I always base my arguments on the current or final rank of the team, because it’s the most complete data we have on them.
The broader point here is that some people seem to think that Ole Miss will not meet preseason expectations because of Nutt’s (arguably deserved) midseason underachiever reputation. There’s no evidence that Nutt fails to meet preseason expectations, which is what we’re talking about. Now, he could rise to No. 1 and then get knocked down to No. 5 after a close loss to LSU, sure …
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
Arkansas fans (like myself) suffer from the believe that an Arkansas can consistently contend for a national title. Those delusions have led to slighty unattainable standards in basketball and football.
What problem I think we had with Houston Nutt is putting together only a few seasons that would be considered successful at any other BCS conference school. One big time bowl win (2000 Cotton Bowl) and only a couple good regular seasons.
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