How Much of a Dying Breed is Matthew Stafford?
by Year2 on Apr 17, 2009 12:00 PM EDT
in SEC Football
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PrintGeorgia's Matthew Stafford is the consensus best quarterback in the 2009 NFL draft. He's tall, has a big arm, and played in an offense in college that mirrors many pro schemes.
He's also a junior coming in early, and if you look at the list of early entrants taken in the first round since 1990, you'll see that his non-senior status makes him a risk. The only unequivocal success of the bunch is Ben Roethlisberger, though Drew Bledsoe had a nice career and Trent Dilfer managed to ride a historic defense to a Super Bowl win.
Even so, Stafford is in much better shape than the other guys who are projected to go in round one. He started for almost three full seasons, which gives the scouts plenty to look at, and he had a fine junior year despite the offensive line injury hell that surrounded him.
Mark Sanchez had one good year, but that's hardly enough to make anyone feel all that comfortable. He did better than John David Booty did, but Sanchez was ordinary in fill-in duty in 2007 and his head coach (a former NFL guy) said he was making a mistake.
The No. 3 guy is Josh Freeman, who is basically JaMarcus Russell only even more turnover prone. Russell at least appeared to have his head screwed on straight most of the time, which is more than anyone can say of Freeman.
In short, this is not a great year for drafting quarterbacks. The fourth guy on Mel Kiper's list is Stephen McGee of Texas A&M, a thrower who got turned into an option quarterback under Dennis Franchione and lost his job last year under pro style guy Mike Sherman.
Purdue's Curtis Painter is also in many people's top ten, and he lost his job at one point last year too. The No. 6 guy according to College Football News is Pat White, who no one thinks will even be a pro quarterback.
Next year's draft is looking even worse from the "pro style" quarterback perspective. All of Kiper's top five for next year come from spread schemes. The first and fifth guys (Sam Bradford and Cincy's Tony Pike) don't run much, but two through four (Dan LeFevour, Colt McCoy, and Tim Tebow) do. LeFevour rushed for over 1,000 yards in 2007, McCoy led the Longhorns in rushing in 2008, and Tebow's running skill is well documented everywhere.
Granted at this time last year a lot of people thought Todd Boekman was going to be a pick in the first three rounds (not me, for the record), so it's not like today's predictions matter that much.
Even so, there are fewer and fewer "pro style" quarterbacks coming from the major college programs. The cream of the crop this year is three juniors, and one has gigantic red flags and another only started for one season. Starting in the 2010 draft, it's mostly going to be spread offense quarterbacks.
The big armed, statuesque quarterback is never going to go away. The SEC has one eligible for the 2010 draft in Arkansas' Ryan Mallett, though I'd be surprised if he left that early. Tim Tebow's successor John Brantley fits the prototypical NFL quarterback mold as well.
But with more and more shotgun spread quarterbacks heading for the pros in the coming years, it would make sense for teams to look into incorporating more and more spread elements.
The most famous pro spread team was the 18-1 New England team from two seasons ago. Both Super Bowl teams, Pittsburgh and Arizona, have run quite a bit of shotgun spread lately too, for instance. We even saw the spread creep in last year the same way it did in college (as an equalizer for an under-talented team) with Kansas City and Tyler Thigpen.
A true zone read spread option offense almost certainly will never be run in the NFL. Too much money is invested in quarterbacks to have them take that many hits. However, spreading the field has proven to be profitable to teams that have the receivers to do it. Plus, Florida has shown at times over the past three years how to run a spread offense with a tight end and fullback, two things that every pro team has.
Should the spread catch on some more in the NFL, it will certainly mean good things for spread quarterbacks in the draft. They'll probably not be all that successful if teams try to shoehorn them into a system they're not used to running too early. However, it stands to reason that a spread quarterback would do well in a professional spread offense.
Until and unless that happens, we’ll have to take the spread quarterbacks on a case-by-case basis. It’s what people already do with pro style quarterbacks, as no one doubts Matthew Stafford based on the NFL play of David Greene, Chris Weinke, Thad Busby, and other quarterbacks groomed by Mark Richt.
In the meantime, let’s all just relax and enjoy one of the most entertaining offensive schemes to come down the pipe. And, lest we all forget, defense wins championships.
Here's the final question to leave you with. If the pro teams can't be patient with quarterbacks and develop them properly to become what they want them to become, is that the fault of the colleges or those NFL teams?
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I think there's some cyclical elements to it
I don’t know that the spread will ever truly recede in college — it’s too valuable for teams looking to equalize the talent gap — but as defenses adapt to it (and they will), some teams will go back to the pro-style offense for the same reason Georgia Tech runs its offense long after defenses learned to adjust: Few other FBS teams run that offense, so it catches defenses off guard when they have to play it.
But yes, I fear we’re in for a few years of NFL whining about spread quarterbacks, until someone comes up with a great way of using it in the NFL. (And does so without Randy Moss, Tom Brady, et al.) At that point, everyone else will want to run the spread — it is a copycat league, as ESPN never tires of reminding us — and the complaints will go away.
Of course, by then, pro-style quarterbacks might be on the rise in college …
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
That's a bleak picture you're painting, man
Does this mean that in ten years we’ll be listening to NFL whining about how these days [whine]colleges only produce quarterbacks who are cannon-armed statues used to taking snaps under center and playing with two back and a tight end, and how are we supposed to make those work in the pros? [/whine]
Because I don’t think I could survive that…
i still want to see what a creative offensive coordinator does with pat white. he is a good quarterback. its just his size that worries me. BTW, the wildcat is not that difficult to shut down, as the ravens proved. So, all these “analysts” that say Pat White should go second round for a team looking for that “wildcat quarterback” need to take a hike. You dont draft a guy that high only to use him 5 plays a game and maybe slot wr. You dont know if he can play slot. He is a talent, but a project also. Having said this, Ill take my 6’3" canon arm guy every day.
im sleepy that might not have made sense
Surreal to be Teal
I don't think he is a dying breed; However,..........
Matthew Stafford is not a dying breed. I don’t see Georgia or SC ever changing to the spread offense. One of things that these two schools are selling is that they prepare you better for the NFL with their offense. As long as they keep selling that line, they are going to get Quarterbacks like Matt Barkley or Aaron Murray.
I watched Colt Brennan last preseason with the Redskins and he did pretty well including going 9-10 for about 100 yards and a TD on his first preseason game and continued to progress throughout the preseason. I do not know if he is still on the team.
What has to happen for Matt Stafford or Mark Sanchez’s “breed” to be a dying breed or the spread offense to advance is that a Spread QB must become successful in the NFL to prove that others can be as well. When that actually happens then I believe this is a much more realistic conversation. Ironically, the Detroit Lions are rumored to be changing their offense to the Run and Shoot. So with that existing why couldn’t a spread QB be successful?
Who cares whose fault it is?
The NFL is signing the checks. You want to blame them for not embracing the spread? Fine, the checks will just go to QBs who share their indifference towards it.
Long-term, the NFL may adopt elements of the spread, they’re never going to risk the money invested in a top QB.
Here’s a scenario no one has considered: What if the spread jumps the shark at the college ranks before much of it gets adopted by the NFL? You’re a high school senior QB — do you want to go to a system that every team has spent years learning to defend, and which no pro teams have embraced?
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