Boulevard of Broken Dreams: Georgia and the Woes of 10-3
EDITOR'S NOTE: Over the next several days, I'll be doing season reviews for some of the teams about whom I still feel like there's something to be said. To a greater or lesser extent, I have in earlier posts wrapped up the seasons for Auburn, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt. There might also be some teams about whom I don't have much to say. Apologies in advance if one of those ends up being yours.
As I was thinking about what to write about Georgia's seesaw 10-3 campaign, I asked for a bit of advice. (And got some good insights from commenters to that
FanPost and, of course, from the Mayor himself.) This was a little awkward for me; I generally like to collect my own thoughts, look at some numbers, and then put it out here on the blog for you, dear reader, to either enjoy or pick apart.
But this year's Georgia team truly baffles me. Sure, I'm right about some teams and wrong about others every year. The 4-8 prediction for Arkansas was pretty close; 9-3 was a bit off for LSU. I was down on Tennessee, though not down enough, while I whiffed on Mississippi.
But Georgia -- I completely missed Georgia. By no means was I alone in calling for the Dawgs to have a better season than they did. For every other team, though, I can tell you why I was wrong. For LSU, I was too certain that talent and coaching could overcome the loss of Ryan Perrilloux. For Mississippi, I underestimated Houston Nutt and Jevan Snead.
On Georgia, I've got nothing. Sure, the injury to Trinton Sturdivant was (in retrospect) a big loss for the offense. But Sturdivant didn't play defense. Nor did anyone else on the team, at least in the second half of the season. In its last five regular-season games, Georgia gave up 183 points. Only once in that stretch did Georgia allow fewer than 38 points -- and that was at Auburn.
Now, some Georgia fans might feel compelled to defend the Dawgs by pointing out that the Red and Black did go 10-3 this season. But those three losses were for the most part so ugly -- and some of the wins so unimpressive -- that the record doesn't truly reflect the team.
Only Arkansas and Western Kentucky, for example, would allow as many or more points against Alabama. Western Kentucky was also the only other FBS team to give up more than 27 points to Kentucky -- and the Hilltoppers are still transitioning to FBS.

The more effective of the two Georgia defenses?
Granted, the offense didn't reach its sky-high pre-season potential. Knowshon Moreno was 20th in the country in rushing, but 107.7 ypg isn't really Heisman material. And Matthew Stafford was a very good quarterback, but probably not as good as you think if your main source of information about him is Gary Danielson.
The defense, though, was what hurt this team the most in the three losses, and what made some of the wins far closer than they should have been. There was a reason many Georgia fans saw the Miami DC job as "a great fit" for Willie Martinez, and it had nothing to do with how happy Martinez would be in Coral Gables. These are the kinder Georgia fans; the less kind started petition drives.
For now, at least, Mark Richt has remained loyal to Martinez. But it is not a stretch to think that fan frustration with Martinez could end up putting Richt on the hot seat -- in some corners, it already has.
Before we get too ridiculous here, let me state unequivocally that I don't believe Richt will be fighting for his job next season. But with Moreno and Stafford both leaving for the NFL, you have to wonder how well the Dawgs can do this fall. And if Georgia disappoints for a third year out of four, you have to wonder if 2010 could be the decisive campaign for Richt. He is already the dean of SEC coaches, and the previous man to hold that honor, Phil Fulmer, proved over the last four years that such longevity can be almost as big a danger in terms of job security as it is an asset.
If those darker clouds begin gathering over Athens and the Dawgs continue their decline, this year will be seen as the beginning of the end of the Mark Richt Era.
Of course, Georgia could surprise to the upside in 2009 and make all this speculation seem myopic, in which case 2008 will be nothing more than a speed bump in an otherwise fine coaching career. And the smart money is on Richt to turn things around. He has always done best when his teams are counted out.
Then again, I've been wrong before.
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4 comments
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Comments
There's no way Mark Richt is on the hot seat
For somone that came of age during the Ray “Goof”/Jim Donnan era, this past decade has been pretty awesome. Last year’s team was the closest to a Donnan team that’s happened under Richt (very talented, didn’t compete in its biggest games, didn’t improve across the course of the season). The issue under Richt since that magical 2002 season seems to be a lack of focus for one half in a couple of games a year. The team just comes out flat and gets so far behind that once they do buckle down, it’s too big a deficit (West Va 2006, Tenn 2006, Tenn 2007, Alabama 2008, GA Tech 2008). Quite frankly, you have to be good as well as lucky to get over that proverbial hump. In my opinion, Georgia has just been on the short-end of the luck stick under the best Richt teams. 2002, there were exactly two undefeateds, 2005 DJ Shockley is injured week before Florida game, and 2007 Vanderbilt and Kentucky fail to make field goals to beat Tennessee. Last year, Florida had no undefeateds to contend with, 2007 LSU gets in despite losing its last regular season game due to West Virginia’s flop, 2006 Florida gets in due to USC falling on its face, and 2003 LSU gets in due to Eli Manning tripping over his own offensive lineman and USC getting the royal shaft of all time from the BCS (Auburn 2004 notwithstanding). Coach RIcht has got the program on autopilot to the point where 10 wins every season is a realistic possibility. It took Bobby Bowden, Tom Osborne, and Joe Paterno nearly 20 years to win their first respective national titles and we consider them to be legends. As long as Georgia continues to post 10+ win seasons, one year the breaks are going to go their way and they’ll get the shot at the big game. Mark Richt is the right man for the job and anyone that thinks otherwise isn’t a true Georgia fan.
http://hobnailboot.blogspot.com/
by AuditDawg on Feb 9, 2009 3:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't think Richt should be on the hot seat
I’m saying that I think this next season ends one of three ways:
(1) Well, as in winning nine or ten games and maybe a division championship.
(2) Disappointing and with Willie Martinez fired.
(3) Disappointing and with Mark Richt on the hot seat.
I see little chance of No. 2 happening, which leaves us with Nos. 1 and 3.
The question in the eyes of many fans (Georgia and otherwise) is not, “How well did you do?” It’s “Did you meet expectations?” For many Georgia fans, once Mark Bradley started calling for a championship and SI put the Dawgs on the cover, it was crystal football or bust. Was that fair? No. But it does set up an interesting situation if Richt has another “disappointing” season next year.
Paterno and Bowden are both special cases. Paterno had a great deal of success and some undefeated seasons but didn’t get a NC. Bowden built the Florida State program into a powerhouse. And both have been in the hot seat in recent years — Paterno at the beginning of the decade, Bowden more recently.
No fan base is entirely rational, and sometimes the irrational faction takes control. We’ll have to see what happens at Georgia.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
by cocknfire on Feb 9, 2009 10:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I certainly worry about that irrational faction taking over
The thing I do like about the situation at Georgia is that there isn’t someone like Bobby Lowder that can just throw his weight around and get what he wants done. I agree with Kyle over at DawgSports that Mark Richt will eventually pass Vince Dooley on Georgia’s all-time win list. Like I mentioned earlier, I’m willing to give Richt a pass on last year. One bad coaching job in 8 years doesn’t merit hot seat status in my book. I mentioned on the post about the 2009 Georgia schdule over at RBR that injuries played a bigger role in the disappointment last year than anyone’s willing to admit. I’d like to see what happens when Richt and Martinez can run most of their practices at full speed without 20 guys wearing green jerseys. Right now I can’t say with much confidence that Georgia will win the SEC or even the East next year. I do believe that next year’s team will be the best team Richt has fielded since 2002 (injuries and other incidents not withstanding). Whether that’s good enough to beat the Gators is yet to be seen. I gave Willie Martinez as much of a hard time as anyone did this past fall, but since the season has ended and I’ve been able to step back from everything, I am also giving him a pass for last season. If there’s another team in America that was decimated by injuries to as many role guys as Georgia was last year, I’d like to see it.
http://hobnailboot.blogspot.com/
by AuditDawg on Feb 10, 2009 5:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why the Green Day reference?
So unAmerican.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Feb 10, 2009 9:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

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