TCU Should Face Alabama in the BCS National Championship Game
by cocknfire on Dec 6, 2009 2:27 AM EST
in Football
30 comments
The Bowl Selection Day Open Thread posts at 5 p.m. ET on Sunday. Catch the specials on Fox and ESPN at 8 p.m. ET.
If I were to write this post from an SEC fan's perspective alone, it would be a full-fledged campaign pitch for Texas to play in Pasadena next month. I said it to someone and so I'll make it public: If that Texas team defeats Alabama, I will sing "Texas Fight" on the season-ending edition of Team Speed Kills Now. The easiest way to bring another crystal football to the SEC is to allow Texas into the national championship game. They haven't played the second-best football in the country and don't deserve to play in Pasadena. TCU does.
I am writing this under no delusions. I know that it's unlikely that anyone with any power will read this or change their vote because of it. But I have to do it anyway in the hopes that maybe, somehow it will reach the ears of someone in power. Because to be an intellectually honest opponent of a playoff, I have to push for as fair a settlement of the season as I can. And it will be a travesty if Texas plays ahead of TCU because they've been ranked higher than TCU.
If you need actual evidence, just look at the teams' resumes and not where they are ranked here or there in whatever poll. I've tried to arrange by difficulty and margin of victory all the FBS opponents for each undefeated team other than Alabama.
Click for a larger version
I think it's pretty easy to see that Boise State isn't even in the conversation here, so put them on the ballot at No. 5 or No. 6, depending on where you're going to place Florida. Now, let's look carefully at each team's schedule. Texas has a couple of good wins, as do TCU and Cincinnati. Beyond the first two games for each team, though, things get more complicated. Is defeating Clemson by four any worse than defeating Texas Tech by 10? Virginia by 16 or Nebraska by one? Oklahoma or Air Force by three? Texas A&M by 10 or SMU by 25? Or do those wins overall compare to South Florida by 17, Pittsburgh by one, West Virginia by three, Connecticut by two and Fresno by eight?
You can make a case that Texas should be No. 4 at the end of the week, with TCU at No. 2 and Cincinnati at No. 3. The Frogs have annihilated every team that they should have and faced tough game only against Clemson and Air Force, one an ACC division champion and the other a decent bowl-eligible team. Texas was in games against Texas Tech, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas A&M and, early on, Colorado.
And the scores don't tell the entire story on their own. Remember that the Oklahoma team that Texas defeated by three lost to the BYU team that TCU waxed by 31. Realize that Nebraska gained 106 yards and failed to score a touchdown, and yet Texas needed a late rally that included a kickoff out of bounds by Nebraska; a horse-collar penalty against Nebraska; and a review that put one second back on the clock and allowed Texas to kick the game winning field goal. That's your national championship contender?
To take that into account, let's look at things one more way. Below, I've taken the Sagarin score for a team's strength of schedule and multiplied it by the difference between the team's total offense and total defense
Clearly, TCU is better than Texas when you look at the results on the field. Cincinnati looks to be better on offense but not quite as good on defense. But don't forget that the Bearcats have defeated more ranked teams (three) than Texas or TCU (two each) or Boise (one).
When you take all of that into account, I don't think you have to cynically arrange the teams on your ballot to overrule the computers. Just do the right thing. Vote No. 2 TCU, No. 3 Cincinnati and No. 4 Texas.
And let's have a real national championship game between the best two teams in the country.
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I agree that TCU is probably the better team...
but I’m not sure that looking at ranked opponents and margin of victory gives the full picture. I get that TCU has some quality wins but I don’t know how good the teams they played in between quality opponents are. There isn’t a “trap” game on the schedule. In other words, unlike Alabama or Texas, TCU got to look past teams on there schedule to plan for the presumed threats. Teams in the SEC and Big 12, which had a down year in retrospect – retrospect has no bearing on the preparation a team invests – don’t get the advantage of overlooking as many opponents as other teams might. There is also the physical toll that an expected win over Mississippi State takes over an expected win over Air Force. I know Alabama played N. Texas and UT-Chatanooga, but the SEC is a grind. Again, I suspect that TCU is better than Texas, but I lack the hard evidence despite your charts. Interesting debate though.
If it were up to me, I'd blitz on offense too.
analysis is good
But Texas will get the nod just because they have been ranked higher. Tcu might be the better and I kind of lean that way since tcu crushed higher ranked teams then Texas. I heard the arguments about how would tcu done against Nebraska which is irrelevant. Tcu played more ranked teams then Texas and Alabama and since there is no playoff that is all anyone can base an argument either way
by Jeremy Mauss on Dec 6, 2009 4:11 AM EST via mobile reply actions
No they did not.
If 8-5 Clemson manages to stay in the top 25, that means TCU would have played 2 ranked teams. Utah was dropped from the top25 in the AP. Clemson was already 25th in the AP before this weeks loss. In the Coaches Poll, Clemson is not ranked in the top 25, and Utah is 25th.
Texas played Nebraska and Ok.St. However, Hanging out around the top25 are 3 more teams they’ve played. If any of these 3 move up, then they have 3. 8-4 Missouri, 8-4 Texas Tech and 7-5 Oklahoma are all hanging out right outside the top25, and get votes.
Alabama has 3 top 25 teams. Florida, LSU and VT. With other opponents recieving top25 votes as well.
Yep, those standings update everyweek. Can’t keep using week 11 or whatever because it suits your purpose.
ole miss and USC were ranked when we played them..
I wanna say arky was too but i could be wrong on that one.
"The goal is to be a champion," Saban said. "I didn’t say to win a championship. I just said be a champion. That’s our goal here. That’s what we want to do."- Nick Saban
FWIW, Utah is in the top 25 in both polls (23 AP, 24 Coaches).
Those crazy rankings updated again today. Not that it really matters. BYU, Utah, and Clemson could all be in the top 15 and Texas would have gotten the nod by virtue of poll momentum. It is what it is.
Just let it be.
That way the Texas fans can be put back in thier place just like every other school that has played a sec team the last 5 years.
"Why does bottled water have an expiration date?"
I disagree, you have some faults in your argument.
When you take a look at Oklahoma, it is no where near the same thing as Clemson. Oklahoma is a completely under-rated team.
The thing people seem to ignore is the strength of schedule of the opponents.
Oklahoma lost by 1 point to BYU. They lost to Miami by 1 point. Texas by 3 points, Nebraska by 7 and got blown out by Texas Tech, but followed it up with the blow out against Ok.St.
Yes, they lost those games, but when you look at it, they barely lost them, and they lost them to mostly top25 teams.
Meanwhile, Clemson lost to a unranked SEC team, who then lost again this week to a team that also lost to an unranked SEC team. They lost to TCU, Maryland (2-10), and G.Tech twice.
Clemson won’t be a top25 team, and the entire argument of the “3 game season” TCU supporters argue is now gone.
Like wise, Nebraska has a great defense. Coming into the game, they gave up an average of 11 pts per game. Lost to VT by 1, Texas by 1, Iowa St(bad loss, but by 2, due to defense, the score was 7-9), And Texas Tech beat them by 21.
Texas Tech btw, who lost only 4 games this season. 1 to Texas, by 10. 1 to Houston by 1 pt. Oklahoma St by 7. All top 25 teams. Their bad loss came to Texas A&M, they lost by 22. But even Texas A&M is a 6-6 team.
I don’t see how you can at all say that the teams TCU played are equal to these.
Sure, the Big 12 is down a bit this year because Texas is the only contender this year for a title chance. But it’s not the MWC.
the system
Is the problem because no one can say for certain who is better between texas or tcu. So we all have to compare who each team played, and that is why a playoff is needed so the games can be decided on the field
by Jeremy Mauss on Dec 6, 2009 10:52 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I largely referenced the poll argument as a reason that Cincinnati, not TCU, should be ranked before Texas
But since you mentioned it, Texas still has wins against two ranked teams — No. 20/19 Nebraska, No. 21/18 Oklahoma State. TCU’s wins against ranked teams are No. 15/14 BYU and No. 23/24 Utah. Cincinnati has wins over No. 16/20 Oregon State, No. 17/16 Pittsburgh and No. 18/17 West Virginia.
You can’t simply say “strength of schedule.” That’s why I combined it with yardage, which is more of pure performance indicator than points.
TCU still had the stronger performances over the 12-game stretch. It’s not just a matter of whom you face, but how you play against them. And if you think Oklahoma is an underrated team, I have some beautiful coastal property here in Tallahassee I’d like to show you.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
well
See, the thing is – I have a computer poll, and so I have crunched all those numbers you talk about. And when you do that, then Texas is the one who has done the best in it’s performances. TCU is #2, Boise St. #3, and Alabama is #4.
However, if you count only who the teams have beaten, then you get Alabama #1, Texas #2, Florida #3, Cincy #4, TCU #5, Boise St. #6. Yes, even with the 1 loss to Alabama Florida still has more quality wins over the entire season than the others. But I understand the “what have you done for me lately” mentality of the polls.
The only reason you aren’t seeing it is because you aren’t look at how weak TCU’s schedule is outside the 3 games everyone mentions.
I’ve run those numbers, and the problem is – they don’t agree with what you are saying.
Nailed it in the first clause.
If I were to right this post from an SEC fan’s perspective alone
If I were to write** this post from an SEC fan’s perspective alone
I don’t have a problem with either team making it to the MNC. This was a down year across the board in most major conferences. Few played anyone of note in the nonconference season, and if they did, the squeaked by their schedule. I’m almost inclined to say the Bearcats just because they at least attempted to schedule a real opponent in Oregon State, a team that just missed the Pac10 crown.
by formerlyanonymous on Dec 6, 2009 10:34 AM EST reply actions
man i cant wait...
…until Texas brings their 2nd championship in five years back to Austin. This is beautiful. It’s setting up exactly like ‘05. Everyone (especially here) will spend the next four weeks talking about how Texas has no shot at beating Bama and doesn’t even belong in the game, which will only make it that much sweeter when the Horns beat the Tide in Pasadena for the title. You guys go ahead and break out your anointing oil for the allmighty SEC – Hook ’em, baby!!!
2005 was different
Southern Cal was seen as a great team because we believed they were a great team and they went undefeated through the season. Looking back on the schedule after the season was done, it was easy to see why those who picked Texas to win — which I did — were right. This season, Alabama started out as a sub-Top 2 and earned their way to No. 1. As as I said before, I picked Texas to win in 2005 and cheered for them to do so. This is not that team, largely because Colt McCoy is not Vince Young. This year, it’s the No. 2 team that got into the title game because of the preseason polls. The problem is, the talent gap between Alabama and Texas this year is even larger than the one between Texas and Southern Cal then.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
*talent gap
I meant the difference in the level of play. Recruiting “talent” is probably pretty even between the two.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
so if i understand you correctly...
…in saying that the only reason Texas came out on top is because they were ranked higher in the preseason poll, you’re punishing Texas for ending up exactly where you all thought they were going to be at the beginning of the season. SECOND homers better listen to coach Saban and not underestimate this team. They may have faced the #1 overall defense in Florida, but now they’ll face the #1 rushing defense in the country when they line up against the Horns. And I think that plays into Texas’ hands. As a Texas fan, I’m infinitely happier that we’re facing Bama instead of Florida…
I'm not sure I follow
But if I get your point correctly, no — Texas “being where we thought it should be” does not quality it for the championship game. Texas having played at least the second-best season in the country would have qualified it if they had done so.
And Florida is pretty reliant on the run as well.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
But, I didn't say that...
…it was simply a rebuttal to your statement “it’s the No. 2 team that got into the title game because of the preseason polls.” They qualified for the championship game because they ran the table in a BCS conference. Cincinnati is really the only team that has a legitimate argument here, a la Auburn 2004. The TCU-Boise winner has nothing more than the same argument that Georgia and USC had following the 2007 season.
I see now
I still don’t agree with you on that, though. Just because they’re not in a BCS conference doesn’t mean they’re any less deserving of a chance to play for the title. The second-best season is the second-best season regardless of conference. And they have every right to complain about the outcome because they did as much as they could against a tough schedule. I’ve always said that one-loss teams have no reason to say they “deserve” to be the title game because they had a way to get there. But what do we say to TCU?
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
The system sucks...
…that’s what we say to TCU. I’m a born Texan, and I feel for TCU. However, their opponents’ cumulative winning percentage is not as good as Texas’, and running the table in the MWC is not equal to the same task in the Big XII, no matter how down the north and OU were this season.
How about these two:
1. In Week 4, I think , Wyoming put a gigantic scare into Texas, eventually losing 41-10 with garbage time points. TCU beat the only common opponent 45-10, having led comfortably 24-10 at half.
2. TCU has a similarly aggressive up-front defense to Nebraska and Alabama, but is more like Alabama, in that, they have a respectable offense. Can anyone make a compelling case that Texas would have beaten TCU last night? Or last week?
Red Cup Rebellion - Changing the culture of Ole Miss Athletics
Destroying your traditions since [YEAR REDACTED].
are you saying...
…that a one-half comparison againt a middling MWC team and a ‘similarity’ to other defenses IS a compelling argument?
I'm saying what everyone not wearing orange was thinking last night ...
name, that any team with defensive strength up front could have beaten Texas last night. And a team that also has an offensive pulse – TCU certainly qualifies there – would have beaten Texas last night.
Red Cup Rebellion - Changing the culture of Ole Miss Athletics
Destroying your traditions since [YEAR REDACTED].
And...
If you look above..
That was our 10th toughest game while it was TCU’s 7th toughest. TCU has clearly played the easier schedule.
Also, Let’s not forget that TCU struggled against Wyoming in a similar fashion. It was 10-10 at one point in the second qtr. TCU just pulled away about 5 minutes earlier in the game than TX did.
Furthermore, TX was up 34-10 after 3 qtrs. That’s hardly building up a lead “IN garbage time”
by Orangechipper on Dec 8, 2009 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
So now...
…you’re assuming a set of circumstances that is not in existence. Let me put it to you a different way. Bama didn’t bring it’s A-game against Tennessee. Any team with a good defense (like Tennessee’s surely is) and a prolific offense (like TCU’s) could have, perhaps even would have beaten Alabama on the third Saturday in October. I’m curious as to why you’re holding Texas to a standard that you haven’t even considered holding Alabama to simply because of the date their respective bad games were played on…
Exactly!
What about Auburn? What about Bama’s field-goal festival against Ole Miss? You can’t judge any team on the merits of one game, good or bad. The only reason this is a problem is because Texas’ two games in question happened more recently. Texas struggled against their two biggest rivals, which ended the season with a combined 13-11 record. Bama struggled against its two biggest rivals, which ended the season a combined 14-10. All four of those teams are bowl-bound. Texas gave up 21 more points in rivalry games than did Bama. They also scored 27 more points than did the Tide. The only difference between these two teams is the manner in which they won their respective title games…
AllHailcale...
We have both had some close calls….both teams are extremely talented and based off of conference superiority and preseason bcs placing its a no brainer that we should play each other …..that being said….I am very pleased to play the horns…I think that (despite their rankings) (and yes this is an opinion so please dont try to sway me) texas is the 5th best team in the nation ….I would rather play texas for the nc than (inorder of not wanting to play them) 1. TCU 2. FLORIDA 3.CINN 4. TEXAS ……thats based on the horrendous defensive showing against A&M …and then that “big 12 championship” performance…
"if you disagree... you are free to point your browser elsewhere."-Kleph
by The Voice of Reason on Dec 7, 2009 11:44 AM EST reply actions
Well then...
…I guess the feeling’s mutual. Because I am much happier that Texas is playing Alabama than Florida. Bama is a MUCH better matchup for the Horns than are the Gators (or Cincy, for that matter). Texas typically struggles against mobile, athletic QBs, which we all know isn’t McElroy’s game. Against pro-style offenses with run-first philosphies, Texas excels.
And basing your opinion of Texas off of their performances against A&M and Nebraska would be like a Texas fan basing their opinion off of Bama’s games against Auburn and Tennessee. I’m not trying to sway you, I’m just playing devil’s advocate. You can’t look at either team in a vacuum.
The BCS got it right!
Just thought I would point out some flaws in your argument/methodology… from a horn fan of course.
First of all… our score against Missouri is listed incorrectly. It was 41-7 not 31-7
Secondly… your analysis is flawed because if you put Bama through the same test, Bama is third.
You conveniently left Bama out of that discussion. if you include Bama…. Their score comes to 12846. LESS THAN BOTH TCU & Texas. So by your very own metric, the game should be TX versus TCU and not Bama.
Bama’s total offense was 413 and total defense was 241. The differential is 172 * the sagarin score gives you 12846 which IS LESS than 13296 for TX and 15833 for TCU.
This metric is also flawed because Sagarin has had a crappy system this year. He STILL has 1AA Villanova ahead of Nebraska for pete’s sake. Sagarin is the only system that has TCU ahead of Texas. Of the top 25, no other computer was dropped more as being the outlier than was Sagarin this year. So you are ONLY using the one computer that the BCS rejected more than any other. At one point during the year Sagarin had 3-7 Washington ahead of 7-3 Nebraska… Sagarin has been a joke this year. At least go by his predictor rankings… which he himself prefers.
Why not look at the average of all the computer’s? Why not look at the other 5 which ALL have Texas ahead of TCU? Why not look at the SOS of all the comps combined?
This should put all this nonsense to rest. Texas has played the aggregate 43rd best schedule according to all the comps. TCU has played the 79th. Bama has played the 16h. So Texas is much closer to Bama’s SOS than TCU is to playing Texas’s. TCU’s SOS is closer to Boise’s than it is to TX. Of course margin of victory is TCU #1. (barely) then Texas and then Bama. Maybe that’s due to the SOS???
http://bcscentral.info/sos.html
Some more food for thought. (FCS teams not included)
Some Stats:
Average victories for teams played.
Cincinnatti 5.8
TCU 5.7
UT 6.4
Teams with .500 records played
Cincinnatti 7
TCU 6
UT 9
Thanks for hearing me out.
texas fight song
as the one who asked what happens if Texas wins, I’m holding you to your fight song promise
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