SEC Championship Game Score Projection

This season I've been using a method of my own devising to project game scores. It worked well, but it took a lot of time late in the week so I stopped a couple of weeks ago. But, I've brought it back for this game.

It uses the season performance of a team relative to its opponents to then project the expected performance against the upcoming opponent. Previously I had been including every game every team and its opponents played, but this time I limited it to solely games against BCS opponents. I figured I had a better shot at accuracy that way.

So, here's how it works. Against BCS teams, Alabama scored 26.89 points per game. Its BCS opponents on average allowed 23.91 points per game against BCS competition on aggregate. Therefore, Alabama on an absolute basis scored 2.97 more than expected, and 12.44% more on a percentage basis. Now, just do that again for Alabama's defense, Florida's offense, and Florida's defense.

Here's the absolute calculation:

Team ScorOff OppDefEff ProjScor ScorDef OppOffEff ProjScor
Alabama 26.89 -11.54 15.35 12.11 2.13 14.24
Florida 28.67 -12.78 15.89 11.78 2.97 14.75
    Alabama 15.05   Florida 15.06

That's right. Florida and Alabama come out one hundredth of a point apart. Percentage?

Team ScorOff OppDefEff ProjScor ScorDef OppOffEff ProjScor
Alabama 26.89 -49.49% 13.58 12.11 8.01% 13.08
Florida 28.67 -51.34% 13.95 11.78 12.44% 13.24
    Alabama 13.41   Florida 13.51

Ah, that's better. The gap widens to a tenth of a point. It's basically a dead heat.

I went ahead and did yardage too. Absolute:

Team TotOff OppDefEff ProjTot TotDef OppOffEff ProjTot
Alabama 380.89 -102.93 277.96 259.89 18.95 278.84
Florida 393.89 -92.89 301.00 238.44 28.96 267.41
    Alabama 272.68   Florida 289.92

And percentage:

Team TotOff OppDefEff ProjTot TotDef OppOffEff ProjTot
Alabama 380.89 -30.15% 266.04 259.89 5.05% 273.02
Florida 393.89 -26.33% 290.17 238.44 8.23% 258.07
    Alabama 262.06   Florida 281.60

The yardage totals should be tight as well. It's just another way to say it: these teams are unbelievably close.

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