Who Should Win the Heisman?
Hopefully in time to be included in the Sports Blog Heisman Trophy presented by The Blue Workhorse.
This is not the easiest year to craft a Heisman ballot, at least not the way it should be done. As I've said before, the Heisman is becoming too much like the MVP award, and the MVP is becoming too much like the Heisman. Remember that the Heisman Award is supposed to go to "the most outstanding college football player in the United States." There is no reference there to how valuable you are to your team. There's not even a suggestion that your team has to be very good. The winner has to "the most outstanding." That's a tall order for anyone to fill.
Which is why I get distressed when I hear people touted for the award because his team is great and "they just couldn't do it without him." If the numbers back up that player being the most outstanding, fine. But his team's achievements shouldn't be as important to a candidate's chances as they are.
That said, they can't be discounted either. Which is why you have to at least look at Colt McCoy -- until you realize that he's having either his worst or second-worst statistical year and has nearly disappeared in three of his team's biggest games (Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Nebraska). Because showing up for the big games does matter if you're going to be most outstanding.
Showing up for almost all the games also matters. It's not just enough to be good overall; you need to have games where you shine. Just because your team's achievements aren't central to the award doesn't mean the ability to carry a team, either in victory or defeat, isn't something we should look for in a Heisman candidate.
But the overall numbers are a good place to start. I've chosen a few players from several different categories to consider. The choices aren't that easy to make; there are a lot of good football players in the NCAA -- and I threw in Tim Tebow because this is an SEC blog and so he has to at least be considered.
First, the quarterbacks.
Your going to want to click that for a larger version because it's got a lot of good info in there. For those unfamiliar with PEPCT (pass efficiency percentage), it's a new stat I'm still tweaking that measures a quarterbacks performance against defenses based on those defenses' normal pass efficiency numbers. And we should note that Tebow also has 859 rushing yards and 13 TDs on the ground.
But even if you add the rushing yards, Tebow just hasn't produced as much as Kellen Moore or Jimmy Clausen. The touchdown numbers would move him past Clausen, but he's thrown almost as twice as many picks as Clausen in comparison to the number of attempts. The numbers just don't support a Heisman candidacy this year.
Still, let's look at how players tended to do on a week-by-week basis.
You're not reading that incorrectly; Tim Tebow has passed for 250 or more yards in one game (Arkansas) all season long. Yes, I realize that Tebow is a running quarterback; but you should have to throw the ball for more than 250 yards more than once in a season to be a Heisman contender.
Not that there's nothing wrong with the other two contenders. It was hard to come up with a "signature" game for either -- their best games came either against weak opponents or when their teams lost, and like McCoy they sometimes had subpar outings in important games. For example, Moore's numbers aren't terrible against Oregon, but it was still his worst game statistically. And Clausen's "signature" game was against a team that defeated Notre Dame.
I'll choose Kellen Moore as the best of the quarterbacks.
Running backs overall.
It's harder to adjust statistically for defenses with running backs than with quarterbacks, though I'm working on a couple of possible ways to do it. In any case, here are a few things that I found interesting about this chart. First, Mark Ingram is undeniably the best per carry by more than a half-yard. Second, he has the edge in receiving yards. But look at Gerhart's touchdown numbers; they are absurd. He essentially scored every twelfth time he ran the ball. Dion Lewis was very good, but he just can't quite compare with what Ingram and Gerhart did overall.
Weekly.
Here is where Ingram's candidacy takes a little bit of a hit. Three times he rushed the ball for fewer than 75 yards, a mark that Gerhart and Lewis never falled to make. Even against the defenses of the SEC, the "most outstanding" should do better than that -- especially at rival Auburn with a chance at an undefeated season on the line.
Gerhart was more consistent by far this year, and his worst game seems just a little bit better than the others. Sure, it was against Wake Forest, but at least it wasn't against Navy.
So Toby Gerhart gets first place among the running backs, with Mark Ingram a close enough second to warrant further consideration later.
I've never understood why wide receivers don't get more consideration than they do for the award. So let's take a look at some of the better wideouts this year.
How hard was it for an SEC fan to include two Notre Dame players on his list of potential Heisman candidates? I don't want to talk about it.
But Golden Tate had an outstanding year. Look at that touchdown percentage and the yards per catch. With 45 fewer catches than Freddie Barnes against tougher competition, he had just 55 fewer receiving yards. Another 14 receptions for Danario Alexander only earned him 148 additional yards. The edge is resoundingly to Tate among the players I looked at here.
Weekly.
This is where Alexander and Barnes fall off the table to me. Both have more games with fewer than 75 yards than Tate and were far worse in their worst outings. (Though one becomes more and more curious as to how Notre Dame lost to Stanford. Oh, that's right. They had to play defense.)
So the best wideout of the group appears to be Golden Tate.
Finally, we have to look at defenders and examine this hype about Nebraska's Ndouopiufdsoia Suh, or something like that.
Dr. Saturday is the one who got me to consider Brandon Graham. And you've never heard of Von Miller at Texas A&M, who was completely off my radar until I started looking through the numbers. I know you've heard of Ndamukong Suh, because you probably watch football on ESPN and they mention his name almost as frequently as McCoy's.
All three of these players are very good, and consider that Suh was probably double-teamed more than any defensive lineman in the country. Even so, based purely on the statistics, you have to give Miller the edge here.
Weekly.
If you thought that Suh was almost unstoppable against Texas in the Big XII Championship Game, you were right. Four and a half sacks among six tackles for loss and 11 overall. Nothing Graham or Miller did all year can come close to matching that.
Counting all of those things and throwing in some of those "intangibles," I have to go with Ndamukong Suh as the defensive candidate.
Leaving us with:
Kellen Moore
Toby Gerhart
Mark Ingram
Golden Tate
Ndamukong Suh
One of these names is really in a different league from the others -- literally -- and that's Moore. He had a great year for Boise State, but playing in any midmajor save the Mountain West isn't quite like playing in a BCS conference. For consideration, you need to put up laughable numbers, and Moore's not quite there.
The next cut is tough, but I'm removing Golden Tate. That's hard, because I really wanted to see him at least get considered. He is, though, on a 6-6 team that not's going to a bowl game. Gerhart was on the best Stanford team in years, Ingram helped win an SEC Championship and Suh led the Cornhuskers to a Big XII North title. Again, the team's season can't be the central point. But we're getting to the point here where hair-splitting is all that's left.
So the top three are Gerhart, Ingram and Suh. Not terribly original. But the idea here is not to be surprising or creative; it's to find the best. Find me better than any of those three at their positions. I don't think it can be done.
We're allowed three names for the final ballot. So I now have to put them in order. This is the hardest part, because I honestly think any one of these players is more than deserving.
But Ingram disappeared one time too many. And as good as Suh was for Nebraska this year -- and as scared as I'd be to tell him this to his face -- the numbers put up by Toby Gerhart are almost incomparable. Gerhart it is.
1. Toby Gerhart
2. Mark Ingram
3. Ndamukong Suh
0 recs |
13 comments
|
Comments
I agree with your final 3...
But I think Suh has to be first. Once you account for his passes defensed, his INT from the DT position, his presence in the the running game, his blocked FGs, and the way his double and triple teams opened up things for Nebraska’s other DT (don’t remember his name, but he threw up absurd numbers this year), I think Gerhart and Ingram are competing for second place. Not only was he the most outstanding player all year long, but he also had the most outstanding game among these three (Big 12 Title Game).
by JRose on Dec 10, 2009 11:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
With regards to RBs,
I think Gerhart will win, but look at this: According to FEI defensive ranks, Gerhart didn’t go against a single top 19 defense. The best D he went against was Oregon at #20, which was his best game in terms of running yards (223 on 38(!) attempts). He went against 4 Ds ranked between 20 and 30, for 649 yards on 122 atts, 5.3 YPC.
Ingram, on the other hand, went against more top 19 defenses than Gerhart did between 20 and 30 at 6. In those he ran for 924 yards in 146 carries, for 6.3 YPC. His best game was also against the top defense, only in his case it was the #9 defense of SC, where he ran for more yards (246) in fewer attempts (24) than Gerhart did against his top D.
Add it all up and Gerhart has the edge only in TDs on a per carry basis. Otherwise Ingram did better per carry against much better defenses all year long. Throw in the receiving stats and it doesn’t look very hard to determine the most outstanding running back in the nation, at any rate.
I could repeat this excercise with other ranking systems, but it would only validate what I’ve sketched out here. As I said, I think Gerhart will win, but I don’t think he’s the best RB, let alone the best player.
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog." - Bear Bryant
by NJBammer on Dec 10, 2009 11:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yes...consider both quality of opponents and available opponent preparation
When comparing Gerhart and Ingram…
Stanford had an off-week before their highest ranked (defensively) opponent, Oregon. While Oregon had just come off a game against USC. UCLA was Stanford’s only opponent to have an off-week before playing them (except of course the 1st game of the season).
Alabama had 4 games against teams whom enjoyed off-weeks (which translates into two-weeks of preparation) before playing (and this also doesn’t include the 1st agme of the year). Alabama’s off-week was before the LSU game, but LSU’s opponent was Tulane.
Respecting where those yards gained came from should go further than the simple statistics say.
I admit that I have a bias towards Ingram. I also admit that Gerhart’s games against Oregon, USC and ND were outstanding. I believe that statistics only tell part of the story. And one can still be objective when considering the strength of scheduling aspect of an athlete’s accomplishments. To that end, I believe that Ingram has a better resume.
by crimson37 on Dec 10, 2009 6:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
John Wall
First time I shot her, shot her in the side.
Hard to watch her suffer, but with the second shot she died...
by btcoop71 on Dec 10, 2009 11:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'd probably switch Suh and Ingram
Otherwise, I agree.
by Incipient_Senescence on Dec 10, 2009 1:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Suh is a beast.
My only problem is that he disappeared for 6 games this seasons…notching 30 tackles and 1 sack. He had his biggest moments against down the stretch, but that can’t mitigate the not-so-great jobs against (some) dismal teams:
FAU: 1 tackle (3 assts)
Ark. St: 4 tackles (1.5 sacks)
La. Tech: 1 tackle (5 assts)
Ok: 1 tackle (3 assts)
Kansas: 2 tackles (1 asst)
Are those heisman numbers? I think not. It’s not a matter of one game, all great players have those (Gerhart shut down against Wake, Ingram against the barn, etc); but that’s 1/2 a season…
"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch
by Stuck in the Plains on Dec 10, 2009 2:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Also, Ingram splits time
with upchurch and trent getting a third of those carries and a third of those TDs (TR has 6, for instance).
"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch
by Stuck in the Plains on Dec 10, 2009 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Suh...
…plays defensive tackle, not really a position where you can use statistics to measure his dominance. I would hardly say that Suh disappeared for half the season. For what is worth his statistics that he has garnered are unbelieveable for a defensive tackle. I think when people say he has been the most dominant defensive tackle in a decade there is a lot of truth to that.
by Kenny483 on Dec 10, 2009 3:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's what I've been saying about Cody
But, trust me living up here and watching NU there are several games where he just flat didn’t show up, and -unlike Cody- his role in the 4-3 is not to free up linebackers like Cody does in the 3-4 NT spot.
"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch
by Stuck in the Plains on Dec 10, 2009 9:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree Tim Tebow, or McCoy dont deserve the Heismen.
Which is why I get distressed when I hear people touted for the award because his team is great and “they just couldn’t do it without him.” If the numbers back up that player being the most outstanding, fine. But his team’s achievements shouldn’t be as important to a candidate’s chances as they are.
I disagree a little with this aspect. Sure it is not right to take the best player from the best team and say “He deserves it” just because his team was the best. The thing I want to argue is, you cant just take the player who is the best statistically and say “He deserves it” just because he has a bajillion TD’s.
I think you have to understand being the best player on the best team does have a impact on the race, just as much as who is best statistical player. The most outstanding player could be a team that 8-4, like Gerhart, or it could be a player like Ingram who is on the best team in the nation. How can you say a 200+ yard 4TD day against a mediocre pac10 team is more outstanding then a 100+yard day 3TD against a top BCS contender…or vice versa. The overall point is, you cant just look at stats. You have to actually watch that player and then decide who you think is the most outstanding. Not just look at a peice of paper and decide.
"Why does bottled water have an expiration date?"
by Hook85 on Dec 10, 2009 7:42 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
As I said, Heismen is not who look best on paper. I keep seeing people talk about stats and resume's.
I am not a voter, but I hope thats why a lot of candidates get that last min vote because they get too actually see them play on TV and decide. Sure one big game shouldnt make or break you, but thats how it has always been and if you want to win the Heismen you have to play on TV for people to see.
ANYWAYSSS Gerhart just won the Doak walker award over Ingram, does that mean he gets the edge over Ingram in the Heismen as well…I dont feel like researching this but dont most QB heismen winners also win the Maxwell award and the most of the many other QB awards.
"Why does bottled water have an expiration date?"
by Hook85 on Dec 10, 2009 7:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I would have to go with Toby
but Ingram also has some really good numbers. I have posted a poll here about it: http://ranjeremysports.blogspot.com/2009/12/heisman-time.html
by maccabita4life on Dec 10, 2009 9:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I will now poke you with a stick.
How can you name your SEC blog “Team Speed Kills” and then not take into consideration that speed when comparing statistics?
The Pac-10 defenses were less than tremendous in 2009 (especially compared to 2008), and in the SEC we had teams like Ole Miss and USC really stepping up defensively.
Ingram had far fewer carries because Bama’s offense was more diverse, and because he barely played in games versus FIU, UNT, and Chattanooga. Plus, ya know, ‘Bama didn’t lose.
Regardless, I hope either Gerhart or Ingram wins, because McCoy’s numbers are a joke. 470 yards versus UCF
Lee Corso: How would you describe tailgating at Alabama?
Kirk Herbstreit: Barbecue and Ralph Lauren
by animalcracker on Dec 10, 2009 11:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

by 


















