Topics for Discussion // 11.07.09
by cocknfire on Nov 8, 2009 9:18 AM EST
in Football
35 comments
Bowl decisions. We're picking a different set of games this time around. Choose for the Game Formerly Known as the Peach Bowl, the Liberty Bowl and the Music City Bowl. The former Peach Bowl (I will not use the sponsor's name because of the stunning corporate greed shown by taking the rightful name off of it) gets the fourth non-BCS pick after which the Liberty and Music City choose the next two teams "not in any specific order, but in consultation with the SEC Office." Let's assume for the sake of argument that Alabama and Florida take the spots in the BCS National Championship Game and the Sugar Bowl and LSU goes to the Capital One Bowl. You can decide who goes to the Outback and Cotton bowls, because I don't think there are any safe assumptions at this point once you get beyond LSU.
Least likely to go to a bowl game. The teams that have yet to clinch eligibility are Tennessee, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Arkansas and Georgia. You can't say Vanderbilt because they're already locked out of the postseason. Is it possible we could have a scenario like 2006, where the SEC had a bowl eligible team that didn't go? (That was before the league had eight picks outside of the BCS.)
One more time: Now do you believe in Jonathan Crompton? He's now completed 59 percent of his passes for 21 TDs and 10 INTs. Suddenly, the Vols have a decent chance at eight wins and are now the favorites for second place in the SEC East.
How many games will each of the following teams win during the stretch run? South Carolina (two left: Florida, bye, Clemson), Georgia (three left: Auburn, Kentucky, at Georgia Tech) or Ole Miss (three left: Tennessee, LSU, at Mississippi State).
Early favorite for the SEC Championship Game. Since we now know for a fact whom the contestants will be, give us your current pick to win the game.
0 recs |
35 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
You forgot Georgia
They haven’t clinched either. Anyways, I say everyone in the SEC who is eligible goes to a bowl game because we have 10 spots, and I find it unlikely that 11 teams will clinch. It’s very likely that the loser of Ole Miss/Mississippi State will be left out (although MSU has a shot at Arky and Ole Miss at UT. I don’t expect either to win, but both could). I would not be surprised at all to see Georgia left out. If they’re down after a loss to Auburn, Kentucky could well sneak up on them. Right now it’s very clear that Tennessee and Auburn have the inside track on the Outback and Cotton Bowl, and after that it’s a muddled mess. If Ole Miss and Arkansas both finish with 7 wins, which one gets the Peach? Ole Miss won head to head, but they’d be losers of 2 of 3, while Arkansas would be on a 4-1 stretch. I think in that case Arkansas would get the Peach, and Ole Miss would get the Liberty. Also, keep in mind that Kentucky could also hit seven wins (and, with my lack of faith in Georgia, I think they will), landing them in Nashville yet again. My faith in South Carolina is gone; they’re headed to Shreveport. My guesses, in summary:
Cotton: Auburn
Outback: Tennessee
Peach: Arkansas
Liberty: Ole Miss/MSU winner (I predict Ole Miss)
Music City: Kentucky/Georgia winner (I predict Kentucky)
Independence: South Carolina
PapaJohns.com: insufficient eligible teams (unless Georgia beats Kentucky or the OleMiss/MSU loser scores an upset over Tennessee or Arkansas)
Also, I absolutely believe in Crompton and am now worried about him leaving at the end of the year. And my early lean is for Alabama in the SEC Championship, but I don’t think either team has a huge edge at this point.
by Incipient_Senescence on Nov 8, 2009 9:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Miss. St. actually needs to win 2 out of their last 3 to get to a bowl. Since one of those games is ‘Bama, this pretty much means that MSU will have to beat Arkansas and Ole Miss to get a shot at a bowl. Ole Miss needs to win only one of their remaining 3, and they have roughly the same chance of going 0-3 in that series as they do 3-0. It mostly depends on which version of Snead shows up and whether the other team decides they actually want to play defense. So, we’re looking at a situation where MSU could upset OM, yet neither of them go bowling. I don’t think that will happen, though. I think OM can muster at least one win out of their last 3, and I don’t think MSU has a prayer to beat both Arkansas and OM.
Meanwhile, Arkansas should clinch a bowl next week (unless disaster happens and Troy pulls the upset, in which case the Hogs probably don’t deserve a bowl even if they do end up 6-6 or better). I also think that Auburn has the potential to lay an egg against Georgia, and if they lose the Iron Bowl, that sticks them at 7-5 as well. We could be stuck with a muddled picture in the West, with Auburn, Arkansas, and Ole Miss all sitting at 7-5 (3-4), with no real tie-breaker in sight (UA over Aub, Aub over OM, OM over UA).
by dxf04 on Nov 8, 2009 10:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You're right on MSU
Don’t know how I mixed that up. So I still think they won’t make a bowl, I’m just more solid in my opinion now. I think Ole Miss will go 1-2. Maybe I’m biased, but I’m pretty sure no one wants to play Tennessee right now, and LSU has consistently looked better than the Rebs.
by Incipient_Senescence on Nov 8, 2009 3:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You're right about the Vols.
At the beginning of the season, I wished the Hogs had Tenn on the schedule, figuring it would be an almost automatic W. Now, I’m kind of glad it was Florida and Georgia.
by dxf04 on Nov 8, 2009 3:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: the Vols.
I think it’s prudent to wait until they play Ole Miss before planning their endgame on the season. They should present a stiff challenge to a very Jekyll-and-Nutt Rebels team. Not a fun game for picking the spread, really. But if (a) the Vols win convincingly and (b) don’t have any uber-critical injuries, they should be in great shape for the Outback. I’m sure that the Cotton will stick with the West, and the Capital One is LSU’s to lose.
by Hooper on Nov 8, 2009 5:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The SECCG
Right now I like Florida’s chances. This can change at any moment. I like them currently because Bama has glaring weaknesses, which conveniently align well with Florida’s strengths. The defensive gameplan should be: Put Haden on Jones all night. Jones is talented enough to get a play here or there, but Haden won’t allow him to win the game by himself, and there will be no 75 yard screens for TDs. Jenkins will be challenged with Maze, but it’s not a mismatch. Cunningham and Dunlap are really turning it on, if not statistically. They’re consistently getting pressure and batting balls. Bama’s OL isn’t great at pass blocking, so UF shouldn’t need to blitz too often. McElroy is still having issues and he hasn’t faced a D this good all year (admittedly, UT has an excellent D, but IMO Florida’s got a slight edge).
That leaves, of course, Ingram. If, IF, UF can stop Bama’s passing without blitzing frequently or running odd formations (Joker etc), then UF is free to load the box and spend every ounce of energy slowing him down. UF’s run D has been spotty (for their standards), but Ingram has a history of fading late in the year, and if McElory can’t get it going, Ingram is going to attract virtually all the attention of Charlie Strong.
None of that gets Florida any actual points on the board, but UF’s offense is very hard to stop from scoring. Scoring touchdowns in a different matter, but UF moves very well between the 20s. Bama’s D is excellent, although they’ve shown some cracks vs. UT and LSU, but Florida’s brutal, inexorable, eye-gougingly ugly offense also happens to be very, very hard to keep from getting field goals. With defenses as good as this, and offenses this shaky/bad, field goals are the currency of victory. I’m picking, at this early moment (therefore subject to change), UF 16 – Bama 10.
by Giant Catfish on Nov 8, 2009 8:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
A history of fading???
Ingram is a sophomore. He was playing as a backup last year. Not sure that you can really call not producing much as a true freshman a “history of fading” as you put it.
by jsholt969 on Nov 8, 2009 8:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He faded last year.
Thus, a history (it means in the past) of fading.
by Giant Catfish on Nov 8, 2009 9:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My point is
that you make it sound like it is a consistent thing, when it happened when he was a true freshman and a back up. What you said might be logical if he was the starter last year and was someone we heavily counted on like we did Coffee, but that’s not what happened. I believe also he was dealing with the fact that his dad was being sentenced to prison and stuff like that which might have also affected things a bit.
by jsholt969 on Nov 8, 2009 9:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
UF/BAMA...I dont know yet
My Gator fan instincts say they lose to Bama because this fairy tale has gone on too long, (could this really be a repeat?) odds are so low to repeat. Buuuuuut my brain says the Gators D can exploit Bamas rookie QB, and stuff the box against the run…. and we have Tim Tebow.
I’ll take the safe bets, Kentucky and Miss State wont make it to a bowl game.
USC will lose the rest
UGA will win the 2/3. GT offense will murder the weak UGA D.
OLE MISS will win 1/3 against state.
Crompton is the real deal. The UCLA game, he looked pissed at the recievers all game, like they wernt where he expected them to be, against the Gators he wasnt even given a chance, sure he threw a couple picks, but those were desperation throws once on 3rd and long, and another on 4th down. Plus we have the best DB’s in the nation, and they knew he had to pass the ball on those downs. I could be wrong, but I am curious why the game against UCLA, he looked upset with the recievers…was he gettin used to a new offense, or new recievers?
by Hook85 on Nov 8, 2009 8:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
You think Kentucky will lose to Vandy?
Kentucky is good at finding ways to lose, but I think they win this one. Also, I have a hard time seeing UGA beating Auburn, but it could happen. AU is probably the most Jekyll and Hyde team in the conference (and this is a conference with Ole Miss and Arkansas).
Against UCLA, the offense was relatively unsettled; the top two leading WRs from the year before were both in their first full game back from injury and obviously not on the same page. They ran a lot of routes that were either loose or out and out wrong. I believe Hooper analyzed the non-Crompton fails in the UCLA game over on Rocky Top Talk. However, that said, Crompton was still staring guys down and forcing bad passes, something he’s largely grown out of as the season progressed.
by Incipient_Senescence on Nov 8, 2009 9:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well
Kentucky can beat Vandy and still not make it to a bowl game, they will lose a bowl nod to UGA, USC, Ole Miss, Tenn, and Arkansas because lack of prestige and school history.
Also, I was baffled that Tenn could have such a terrible QB, I kept asking myself, “If he is so bad, surely a school like Tenn would have a better Qback behind him to groom.” I would not allow myself to believe that Crompton was that bad, especially how highly ranked he was coming out of high school. Go back to all the post about the Gator game, I was one of the main people complaining that Kiffin would let him throw more.
Crompton was still staring guys down and forcing bad passes, something he’s largely grown out of as the season progressed.
In that case, I am wrong. I didnt notice this. Ofcourse you would know, so ill take your word for it. But there has to be more to it, he was GREAT IN HS, and NOW look at him…the guy had the talent all along. it didnt just magically arrive. I want to know why it took so long to break out.
by Hook85 on Nov 8, 2009 10:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, Hook, that's not entirely right
If Vandy and MSU are not eligible, Kentucky will get a bowl bid simply for having six wins. The SEC has ties to 9 bowls. If they get two teams in the BCS, that makes ten. I’m going to assume that Florida and Alabama both make BCS bowls, meaning that there are plenty of spots for Kentucky.
Even if there only were 9 spots, I’d take Kentucky over a 6-6 USC team that had dropped four straight, but that’s arguable.
As far as Crompton goes, he looked fairly good in spot duty his freshman year when Ainge was injured. 5 different offensive systems really hurt though, and it is the opinion of most all Tennessee fans that Dave Clawson really messed with his head in some way that was not easily fixable. Beyond that, it’s just inexperience. You don’t expect a QB to play well in their first couple starts. Just treat this year as Crompton’s first couple starts; wipe last year away because it did more harm than good.
by Incipient_Senescence on Nov 8, 2009 10:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll be honest
Its clear I am not an expert on who gets what BG’s, its annoying how that process works to me, so I have been ignorant to care. Such as the winner of the Big 10/Pac 10 goes to the Rose bowl. If one of those teams in the BCS game, a second place team still gets to play a BCS game, even if they not that great. Such as illinois a few years back. I am sure you know all this, but this is why I have dont bother getting into who plays in what Bowl game unless its the BCS NC game, or the Gators.
So in the thread there is Outback Peach Bowl, the Liberty Bowl and the Music City Bowl,Cotton bowls to choose from. I chose 5 teams in place of those 5 bowl games.
USC has steve spurrier=ratings/star power
UGA is UGA=ratings
Ole Miss has Snead, his last game for his NFL report card.=ratings
Tenn is Tenn, plus they have Lane the Jester who entertains America=ratings
Arkansas has Mallet, and Petrino/star power=ratings
Wich bowl was missed, or does one of those Companies sponsor 2 BG’s. If so then I was wrong throw Kentucky in there for the lowest bowl.
Good explanation on Crompton. Is Kiffin trying to find a way to redshirt one of his seasons he rode the bench?
by Hook85 on Nov 8, 2009 10:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wish Kiffin could find a way to redshirt him
But that route is lost.
As far as the bowl games, this thread was not exhaustive in its listing. The Independence Bowl and PapaJohns.com Bowl are the two lowest bowls with SEC tie-ins. I guess cocknfire just assumed that whatever eligible team was left out of our discussion would be headed to these lowest of bowls. You make a good point about Spurrier and star power, but after some of Carolina’s epic collapses, I’m not sure if any bowl wants to touch a USC team with four straight losses. I bet it will happen though, so we’ll find out. Also, you missed Auburn. Malzahn’s offense = ratings.
by Incipient_Senescence on Nov 8, 2009 11:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wish Kiffin could find a way to redshirt him
It is so nice, for Crompton’s sake, to hear Tennessee fans saying that this year.
by Hooper on Nov 9, 2009 12:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Non-BCS bowls with SEC tie-ins are Independence, Papajohns, Chick-Fil-A, Music City, Outback, Capital One, Cotton, and Liberty. Add in the NC and Sugar, and that makes 10.
Here’s where the Sugar (and all BCS games) get a little tricky. The winner of the SECCG goes to the Sugar, unless they’re playing in the NC. Now, it’s my understanding that the SEC’s spot in the Sugar becomes an at-large bid if the auto-bid goes to the NC, but they usually choose an the highest ranked SEC team anyways, with no obligation to pick the loser of the SECCG (See 2006 Arkansas). But, I know that’s how it works in the Rose Bowl. Your example of Illinois was a little off. Once OSU went to the NC, that spot became a defacto at-large bid. The committee chose Illinois anyways, but had no obligation to do so(for example, see 2003, when the committee chose Oklahoma to play in the Rose Bowl over Big 10 runner-up Iowa).
Who goes to what bowl is a little murky, too. The Capital One Bowl gets first pick (after Sugar, of course), but they can take any SEC team they want, regardless of the standings.
by dxf04 on Nov 8, 2009 11:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
thanks for the clarification
also proving my point on why I have not had the motivation to care about who makes the liberty bowl…
by Hook85 on Nov 8, 2009 11:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Perfectly Understandable.
You could probably write a Ph.D. dissertation on the intricacies of the bowl selection process, and really only scratch the surface. I kind of wonder what goes on during the committee meetings that decide who goes where. Is it a lot of number cruching and bickering, or is more of an excuse to order chicken wings and beer and throw darts at a list of available teams?
by dxf04 on Nov 8, 2009 11:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Right – if a tie-in team goes to the NT game, then that spot becomes an at-large, with the bowl in question jumping to the front of the queue. This year, the order of at-large selection (including auto-bid teams that don’t have tie-ins among the “at-large” pool) is :
- The bowl that loses the #1 team to the NT game (if there is one)
- The bowl that loses the #2 team to the NT game (as above – though potentially second in order, it has first rights to a replacement team from the conference as its ‘lost’ tie-in)
- Orange
- Fiesta
- Sugar
Last year, the selection order was Fiesta (lost BCS #1, took Texas to replace OU), Sugar (lost #2, had first rights to SEC replacement and took Bama), Fiesta (took Ohio St), Sugar (took Utah) , Orange (took Cincy.) Texas (as BCS #3), Utah (as highest Little 5 team in top 12) and Cincy (as Big East champs) were all auto qualifiers, they just didn’t have fixed destinations – Bama and Ohio State were the only true at-larges.
by peachy rex on Nov 9, 2009 6:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry, have to correct myself.
Regarding the Capital One Bowl picks, they actually have to pick the available team with the best record or a team that is within one win of the team with the best record. Just gotta keep peelin’ the onion, I guess.
by dxf04 on Nov 8, 2009 11:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Aren't there some limitations on how often they can select non-best-available teams?
E.g. if, after Florida and Bama go to BCS games, they could choose between LSU and Tennessee (assuming both win out, and limiting the discussion to these two for simplicity). But if they choose UT (who would be the lower of the two) they’d be forced to take the top available next year (or maybe it’s a 2/3 thing). Something like that.
by Hooper on Nov 9, 2009 12:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Very well could be.
But I can neither confirm nor deny it. It would make sense though, in as much as they seem to want to make it as complicated as possible. Apparently, the Liberty and Music Bowls pick simultaneously. If they both choose the same team, then the team itself gets to decide which bowl they want to go to. Clear as day, right?
by dxf04 on Nov 9, 2009 12:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure about that
If that’s true, it’s not in the rules as I read them on the SEC Web site. But those might not be exhaustive or what you’re talking about might be some sort of handshake tradition.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
by cocknfire on Nov 9, 2009 2:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How does that work
I thought to be bowl eligible all you needed was six wins. Do you also have to place within a certain rank in the conference as well?
by Hook85 on Nov 8, 2009 8:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
You can only count a single I-AA win per year – Ole Miss has two this season.
by peachy rex on Nov 8, 2009 9:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ah, but you're forgetting one thing!
The AJ Green factor. The best wideout (hands down) in the conference will be playing versus Auburn and Kentucky. Considering he essentially beat Kentucky last year for Georgia as well, I would not want to bet against Georgia winning at least the next two.
Now, Tech? That’s a different story. Unless ole’ coach Slick Willie has been keeping something up his sleeve all year (like his brain), it’s hard to imagine UGA keeping up with Tech’s offensive grinding. Even slowing them down won’t help too much unless Georgia can just get in their heads early.
by blackertai on Nov 8, 2009 10:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The problem is
I have a problem seeing Willie Martinez hold Auburn below 50.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
by cocknfire on Nov 8, 2009 10:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the Auburn/Georgia game will hinge entirely on Todd.
He was absolutely unconscious (in the basketball sense of the term) against Tennessee. But IIRC he had a bad game against Kentucky and their offense stalled out.
by Hooper on Nov 9, 2009 12:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A.J Green is the best reciever in college football, but a WR can not win a game by himself. Unless hes like a Charles woodson and plays both sides of the ball, and returns kicks. But he doesnt.
by Hook85 on Nov 8, 2009 10:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The SECCG:
Florida. I’ll give reasons why as the game draws closer. But right now, definately Florida.
Tennessee Fans: We win at teh Internet!
by bobo_the_vol on Nov 9, 2009 5:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Definitely Florida?
McElroy’s woes as of late have led me to that same conclusion, but without your confidence.
________________________________
Eric Berry is better at football than you.
by kidbourbon on Nov 10, 2009 7:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
