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BCS Standings: Some Chaos Theories

Now that we're entering the final weeks before bowl selections, we can actually start to talk chaos theories. But standings first.

1 Florida
2 Alabama
3 Texas
4 TCU
5 Cincinnati
6 Boise State
7 Oregon
8 Ohio State
9 Iowa
10 Georgia Tech
11 Penn State
12 Virginia Tech
13 LSU
14 BYU

Why 14 this week instead of the usual 10? Because that's how many teams are eligible for at-large spots in the BCS bowls if they don't wrap up the championship of one of the major conferences.

Bcsweek13_medium

Looking at the Top 5, Florida and Texas gain ground -- the Gators across the board, the Longhorns with the chips. TCU is officially locked out barring a Texas loss. That was just a formality, but it becomes official with the end of the Frogs' season.

Notably absent from the Top 14 teams: formerly No. 9 Pittsburgh -- more on the Panthers presently -- now at No. 15 in the standings after a loss to West Virginia, and one-time No. 12 Oklahoma State, last seen rounding out the Top 20 after Oklahoma waxed them.

Star-divide

No. 22 Nebraska, No. 23 West Virginia and No. 24 Stanford are back in the standings. Houston, Nebraska and Utah -- Utah! -- are in the Top 25 thanks solely to the humans. Only two of the computers even bother to rank the Utes.

The only other SEC team that was ranked last week, Ole Miss, is gone after the loss to the rival Western Division Bulldogs.

Now, chaos scenarios:

Nebraska defeats Texas. This is the only surefire way for Boise to still get left out of a BCS bowl. Nebraska would get the Fiesta Bowl berth and Texas would become the at-large team that every other BCS game wants. Meanwhile, the SEC runner-up, TCU and potentially Cincinnati are left in the battle for No. 2.

Pittsburgh defeats Cincinnati. The Panthers then claim the Big East's automatic spot in the BCS system and likely leaves the Bearcats in the Top 14. Does a bowl take the higher-ranked Boise State or fellow "Cinderella" team Cincinnati?

New Mexico State defeats Boise. That puts Virginia Tech and BYU back in the conversation; most people already have either Iowa or Penn State in the BCS, leaving the other locked out, and LSU is also ineligible under the two-per-league rule. Assuming that Cincinnati defeats Pittsburgh and Oregon wins, there's an outside chance that Miami or even Southern Cal could re-enter the Top 14.

Oregon State defeats Oregon. Expect to start hearing "19-8" a lot if this happens, a reference to the Ducks' loss to Boise State and the most PR-friendly justification for giving the Broncos the final at-large place.

All of them. This is the nightmare scenario. Nebraska, Pittsburgh and Oregon State join the SEC winner, Ohio State and the ACC winner as the only sure berths. Four at-large spots now are on the table, with the SEC runner-up probably taking one of them and one going to TCU. Those two are the only ones left in the national title conversation. Left for the final two berths are Texas, Cincinnati, Oregon, Virginia Tech and BYU and maybe Boise, Miami and/or Southern Cal.

But let's assume sanity for the sake of our weekly selection exercise.

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP: SEC winner vs. Texas
ROSE BOWL: Oregon vs. Ohio State
ORANGE BOWL: Georgia Tech vs. Penn State
FIESTA BOWL: TCU vs. Boise State
SUGAR BOWL: SEC runner-up vs. Cincinnati

Wait a minute. That Fiesta Bowl looks like it might not be a good game for Fox's ratings. If only there were some way to fix that --

5. After completion of the selection process as described in Paragraph Nos. 1-4, the conferences and Notre Dame may, but are not required to, adjust the pairings taking into consideration the following:

... whether alternative pairings may have greater or lesser appeal to college football fans as measured by expected ticket sales for the bowls and by expected television interest, and the consequent financial impact on Fox and the bowls.

What if Florida or Alabama were to play a game to repair the SEC's reputation against these upstarts from the Mountain West? And think of the points Cincinnati and Boise State would put up in a game against each other. So let's switch those two.

FIESTA BOWL: Cincinnati vs. Boise State
SUGAR BOWL: SEC runner-up vs. TCU

No, it doesn't make much sense to change the line-ups because of television ratings. But this is the BCS we're talking about here. Dollars have always counted much more than sense.

For more on the BCS, go to the SBNation.com story stream or BCS Evolution, SB Nation's blog devoted to the rankings

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The selection order goes like so :

Sugar takes replacement for the SEC champ
Fiesta takes replacement for Big 12 champ
Orange takes first “at-large”
Fiesta takes second
Sugar takes third

I suspect either TCU or a big conference team (likely Iowa/Penn St) will be taken by the Fiesta in the #2 slot; in the #4 they’d still have a chance to avoid Boise St if they wished. So if the Fiesta does pick both mid-majors, I think it will be a deliberate choice and won’t be altered.

by peachy rex on Nov 29, 2009 11:54 PM EST reply actions  

Fiesta will pick Iowa/Penn State first.

No way in hell do they let Orange grab the Big 10 at-large.

by falcontom on Nov 30, 2009 12:23 AM EST reply actions  

Also

I think TCU, as an auto-qualifier and probably having the least draw of any team, will be forced on the Sugar, as I bet Fiesta takes Boise before TCU, b/c Orange will very reluctantly go with undefeated Cincinnati instead of Boise or TCU.

by falcontom on Nov 30, 2009 12:27 AM EST reply actions  

The Orange might pick Cincy for the Big East v ACC match-up even if Penn St/Iowa is on the board – but probably not. So… unless the Fiesta wants the mid-major match-up, it will probably lock up the biggest draw right away.

From our personal perspective as Florida fans, the question is who has the very least attraction? You might be right about TCU – I’m really not sure myself. I’d rather face anyone else if we end up in the Sugar, frankly… I really think they’re the next best team in the country right after the ‘big three’ of UF, Bama and Texas (and perhaps right there with them.)

by peachy rex on Nov 30, 2009 12:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Cincy has the least attraction for me in terms of an actual game. I mean come on, giving up 45 points to UConn? 36 to freaking Illinois? The two mid-majors may actually make it a game for a half, but I have my doubts about the watchability of UF-Cincy.

As far as who we want to face, if we have lost in Atlanta, why not face the best of the lot? Since we’re not playing for all the marbles, why not have a decent game to watch…

by falcontom on Nov 30, 2009 2:03 AM EST up reply actions  

Because I want to win, dammit! :)

Also, it would be nice to send the seniors out on as high a note as possible…

by peachy rex on Nov 30, 2009 2:18 AM EST up reply actions  

Losing out on rings would suck pretty badly, no question, but a Sugar Bowl win would be a decent consolation prize. It’s pretty astounding to think that Florida hasn’t played there since 2001. Not only have none of the players been to the Sugar, none of the coaches have either.

by peachy rex on Nov 30, 2009 2:31 AM EST up reply actions  

I still say Cincinnati goes to the Sugar without intervention

If I’m a bowl type, I want TCU. That’s going to be the media-driven story of the postseason. And I’m not sure that TCU wouldn’t be the biggest draw from a ticket standpoint for the Fiesta. Remember, the bowls are in it to sell tickets and fill up hotel rooms. Fox wants a watchable television game and we fans want good games. But any bowl’s first and really only consideration is how many tickets a team will sell. TCU is relatively close to the Fiesta Bowl, has some credibility from its days in the Southwestern Conference and has enough of a fan following to sell tickets. And the Fiesta has gone with close midmajors twice before (Utah 2004 and Boise 2006).

Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.

by cocknfire on Nov 30, 2009 2:41 AM EST up reply actions  

First things first for Fiesta is

nail down a Big 10 team to make sure there are asses in the seats. I think they then let Orange do the gambling on TCU/Big East champ. If its between TCU and Boise (both essentially equidistant), they go with the known quantity with a rabid fanbase over the gamble that can’t fill its home arena.

by falcontom on Nov 30, 2009 2:50 AM EST up reply actions  

Also, for what it’s worth, Stewie Mandel asserts that the Fiesta lusts after Iowa. (He also is of the opinion that the Fiesta would complete its match-up with Boise, that the Orange would take TCU, and the Sugar would be left with Cincy; the ESPN types I see are all in agreement on Iowa and Cincy, but the destinations of the mid-majors are still a point of contention.)

by peachy rex on Nov 30, 2009 1:01 AM EST reply actions  

The Palmer, McShay and Huard panel on College Football Live agree with me

Not that I’m sure I want them on my side, but it’s not unanimous among the ESPN analysts. Rod Gilmore was also talking during the campaign for Boise State the game Friday night about the Fiesta wanting Iowa or Penn State; I can’t say for a fact that it’s not true, but I really don’t get why they want a midwestern program that far away with fans that can’t be that excited about their season.

Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.

by cocknfire on Nov 30, 2009 2:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Those midwesterners would be excited about a BCS bowl...

And they have vastly bigger alumni and fanbases than the mid-majors, and they travel very well into warmer weather. I also read somewhere that Arizona has the second highest population of Iowa alums outside of Iowa.

Don’t believe me? Look at the first picks for the last three years for at-large selections. You’ve got Ohio State last year, Kansas the year before that, and Notre Dame the year before that. The rub this year is that there is no qualifying team in the Big 12 to replace Texas (lol), so Fiesta gets to jump Orange in the selections.

An interesting rub I found perusing the BCS rules: the first Big/Pac-10 winner to make it into the championship game the next four years will be replaced not by a conference runner-up but by the mid-major AQ.

by falcontom on Nov 30, 2009 3:09 AM EST up reply actions  

Its all about the weather

Get any moderately successful Big Ten team a big time matchup and warm weather in January and they travel in droves. Wisconisn has completely taken over the Rose Bowl a couple of times and Ohio St. always has more fans than their opponent when they trvel to the Fiesta Bowl.

by ssmrgrim on Nov 30, 2009 3:17 AM EST up reply actions  

Nightmare from the ACC:

What if Clemson beats GA Tech…. Clemsux is currently unranked. By BCS rules, (from what I understand) a team must be ranked at least 15th to play in a BCS Bowl. What does the BCS do with the ACC auto-tie-in if Clemson wins this weekend. Do they give it to Clemson or open an additional at-large?

by Charlestowne on Nov 30, 2009 12:09 PM EST reply actions  

Clemson

The ranking roll only applies to at-large teams. I think Pittsburgh might have been unranked in 2004 when it played in the Fiesta Bowl.

Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.

by cocknfire on Nov 30, 2009 12:11 PM EST up reply actions  

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