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BCS Standings: Who Wants Change?

Things aren't looking good for TCU's national title hopes.

More photos » Andrew Shurtleff - AP

Things aren't looking good for TCU's national title hopes.

Nothing much to see here:

1 Florida
2 Alabama
3 Texas
4 TCU
5 Cincinnati
6 Boise State
7 Georgia Tech
8 Oregon
9 Pittsburgh
10 Ohio State

At this point, it's going to take a major upset to change those numbers much. Ohio State might move a bit based on the fact that it's already wrapped up its season, so the computers will get some more info on other teams but won't on the Buckeyes. Aside from that, though, expect these standings to move very little.

Bcsweek12_medium

As far as the Top 5 go: Florida loses some ground this week thanks to the coaches and computers, but not enough to get alarmed about. Alabama gains some of that, so the winner of the SEC Championship Game is still a lock for the BCS title showdown. With the computers now going with Texas over TCU, there is no hope for the Horned Frogs to make Pasadena unless the Longhorns are upset. Even then, it would be kinda dicey. Cincinnati increases its lead over Texas in the computers, but as long as they stay that far back among humans, it won't do them any good.

Computers, which are less likely than humans to think that an undefeated Boise has to be ahead of a one-loss Georgia Tech just because, have the Broncos tied with Oregon for seventh. Again, this would fry the brains of humans who still think that Boise is automatically better because they won back at the beginning of September. (Full disclosure: I haven't figured out whether Boise or Oregon will be first on my ballot, but it will be close and the head-to-head victory won't count much more than any other game.)

 

Star-divide

Your missing Top 10 team is LSU, who was No. 8 and now is No. 15. The computers for some reason like the Bengals, ranking them No. 13 while the humans have them at No. 16 (Harris) and No. 17 (coaches). Oregon replaces the Tigers thanks in part to the computers. The humans, of course, only move the Ducks so far because they can't go ahead of Ohio State or PIttsburgh because the Buckeyes won and the Panthers didn't play -- so they both have to stay at least in the same place, no matter what else happens.

No. 23 Houston is the People's Choice nominee of the week, with only the humans keeping them in the Top 25 (No. 20 in both surveys) over the objections of the chips (No. 27).

The only other SEC-related note is that Ole Miss has returned to the ranks at No. 25. The only other new entrant is No. 24 North Carolina, which gets the No. 20 nod from the computers.

As near as I can tell based on my reading of the BCS rules, your likely bowl lineups are:

BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: Florida/Alabama winner vs. Texas
ROSE BOWL: Oregon vs. Ohio State
ORANGE BOWL: Georgia Tech vs. Penn State
FIESTA BOWL: TCU vs. Oklahoma State
SUGAR BOWL: Florida/Alabama loser vs. Cincinnati

The possible curve balls: The Orange Bowl could go for Virginia Tech, but I'm pretty sure the folks in Miami have Hokie fatigue by now. The Fiesta Bowl could pick Boise State, but that's risking having their ratings crater as all those Cinderella-loving Americans ignore the game.

And get used to the idea of the SEC runner-up playing the Bearcats. The Sugar has the last choice and there's no reason for either the Orange or the Fiesta to take them ahead of the other teams that get at-large berths, so Cincinnati will end up in New Orleans.

For more on the BCS standings, check out the coverage on SBNation.com and at BCS Evolution.

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There’s one reason for the Orange to take the Big East champ. If Oklahoma State loses (and so falls out of the top 14) and another unattractive or ineligible team moves into the top 14 (VT/GT would be a rematch; VT/Clemson would still be an all-ACC game), then the Fiesta probably takes Iowa with the first pick and leaves the Orange with taking the Big East champ, the Big East runner-up, TCU, Boise, or staging an all-ACC game. Taking Cinci is probably the least bad option there.

by drothgery on Nov 23, 2009 12:55 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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