Other Half of the BlogPoll Draft Ballot

by Year2 on Nov 2, 2009 10:19 AM EST in SEC Football

It's times like these that I'm glad there's a draft ballot. Having been gone all weekend for the Cocktail Party without an Internet connection, I missed a lot of the weekend's action. There will probably be some things that don't make sense, so please let me know in the comments. I'm still catching up on everything.

Top 25 here, comments after the jump.

Florida
Alabama
Texas
TCU
Iowa
Cincinnati
Boise State
Oregon
LSU
Georgia Tech
Pittsburgh
Penn State
Houston
Utah
Miami (FL)
USC
Ohio State
Oklahoma State
Cal
Oklahoma
Notre Dame
Arizona
BYU
Virginia Tech
Clemson

As with every week, I start with my stat-based rankings. The first 30 teams are listed below for your perusal. This week, I had to knock six teams out and bring six teams up in order for my ballot to make sense. We're just in one of those transitional periods I guess. OUT: Nebraska, Texas Tech, BC, Central Michigan, Temple, Auburn. IN: Houston, Cal, Oklahoma State, Utah, Arizona, BYU.

Beyond that, I tried to let the numbers lead me. Hence, Florida jumps Alabama by a slim margin. I looked at last week and this week, and the only appreciable difference was in the strength of schedule numbers. Florida's was basically the same, but Alabama's took a minor hit. The two of them are well out in front of everyone else, so just consider them 1 and 1A.

Once again, I had to move Texas up a bit to get to third and the reason was strength of schedule. It was 77th best in the nation last week by my estimation, and playing Oklahoma State helped move it up to 58th. By all other measures the Longhorns belong in the top three or four, but the schedule is holding them back some.

I moved Oregon down below all the undefeated teams for now, but I can be convinced to put them as high as fourth. The Ducks had a slow start (and it wasn't just Boise - they escaped by two against Purdue as well) but since they've been a monster. I haven't been all that high on USC all season, and Oregon just exposed them, thankfully. USC's never been good against running quarterbacks (which is why Tressel screwed up so badly by not having Pryor run), so something like this was always coming if Oregon could straighten itself out given how many people USC's defense lost.

Beyond that, it's all a bunch of shuffling based on won/loss records. If something's out of whack, let me know.

Rank	Team	SSOS	YPP Diff	PyWin Pct	Real Win Pct	Average
1	Florida	23	13	6	1	8.80
2	Alabama	31	8	4	1	9.00
3	Oregon	22	11	11	8	12.00
4	TCU	59	5	1	1	13.40
5	Iowa	39	15	13	1	13.80
6	Texas	58	9	3	1	14.40
7	Cincinnati	78	3	9	1	18.40
8	Boise St.	85	4	2	1	18.60
9	Virginia Tech	5	19	18	34	22.00
10	LSU	84	1	10	8	22.20
11	Georgia Tech	28	39	28	8	22.20
12	Pittsburgh	60	16	14	13	23.20
13	Oklahoma	17	10	12	44	25.40
14	Southern California	44	27	19	19	25.60
15	Penn St.	105	2	5	8	25.60
16	Ohio St.	81	7	7	17	25.80
17	Miami (FL)	3	52	52	16	27.80
18	Clemson	14	20	20	44	28.40
19	Boston College	21	21	38	34	29.60
20	Nebraska	76	6	8	34	31.60
21	Notre Dame	61	37	27	19	32.60
22	Texas Tech	57	24	16	34	33.00
23	Central Mich.	97	14	21	19	34.00
24	Temple	96	18	30	13	34.00
25	Auburn	30	51	37	28	34.80
26	Utah	114	29	17	8	35.20
27	Houston	72	44	34	13	35.20
28	Tennessee	24	31	15	55	36.00
29	Rutgers	50	22	53	28	36.20
30	Wisconsin	19	75	39	24	36.20

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Comments

Here Come The Irish...maybe

Looks like sanity reigns in the Top Ten all over the place this week…as it tends to do as the season progresses. I tend to agree with your assessment of Oregon; slow start but with a legitimate case for #4 today. That said, any quibble with them being behind the other undefeated would be minor. With out mass pandemonium breaking out at the top Oregon shouldn’t get near a MNCG and soundly beating one of the undefeateds ahead of them in the Rose Bowl should merit them a place around #3 when all is said and done.

Therefore my question comes ‘down poll’. Look at Notre Dame. Same Record as Cal and Ohio State. Cal was completely dominated in their two losses. Ohio State has two losses as well and looked bad in one of them. All three have a common opponent that all three of them played at home: U$C. The Trojans destroyed Cal, held off the Irish, and pulled it out against OSU. That would tned to indicate OSU>ND>Cal. A look at their other losses has another blow out to a Top Ten team for Cal, a last second thriller to a not so good team for ND, and a disappointing performance to a similar opponent for OSU. That would seem to indicate ND>OSU>Cal.

Common opponents and quality of losses aren’t everything when comparing teams with similar records but, if you lined any of the three up on a field today what stands out the most? The Notre Dame offense. That is by far the best unit of any of the six (O/D) for these three teams. Because of that, if they were tossed into a Round Robin I would take ND>OSU>Cal. That stated, if ND is better than Cal or OSU I think they should be ranked higher.

Keep in mind, the magic number for ND is 14. Be #14 or higher in the BSC and they are eligible for a BCS bowl. If the Irish become eligible they WILL get a bid. Likely, to my mind, the Fiesta…especially if Texas play in the MNCG. If so the Fiesta will have two at-large picks and there is no chance they want a TCU vc BSU match up. They’ll take ND in a heartbeat. So would the Orange to match-up against the ACC Champ. The Sugar will pick last this year but don’t think that if ND falls to them they won’t be counting the money that ND would bring to New Orleans.

by Phocion on Nov 2, 2009 12:31 PM EST reply actions