The BCS is Killing This Season
Remember back at the beginning of the season? I know; September seems so far away now. Remember how chaotic is was, with a top five team losing every week? It was madness, madness I tell you!
And now, a little over a month later, folks are wondering if this season is headed for a boring ending. The Florida-Alabama-Texas trio is not likely to topple, after this weekend most conference races will be mere formalities, and we're left just trying to figure out the bowl slots.
On the one hand, this is exactly what we asked for in the preseason. Florida and Texas were far and away the two front runners, and the only thing that has changed is that Alabama has shoved its way into the picture. Either way, it's still Texas vs. the SEC champ. On the other, it's an abnormal year where a combination of upsets, scheduling, and good or bad luck have resulted in conference leaders being roughly set by the second week of November's games.
If there's one thing this year does prove though, it's that every week is certainly not a playoff. In fact, the BCS's structure is preventing 2009 from having a wildly entertaining finish.
Just imagine if we has a plus one set up. Now, you've got six teams vying for four spots. A non-BCS team would probably have a shot at a national title at last, between TCU and Boise State. That is assuming of course that the loser of the SEC championship game doesn't still get a spot in the Final Four. Would the voters really do that? What kind of firestorm would occur in that scenario? That's gold, Jerry. Gold!
The exclusionary nature of the BCS is brought to the forefront in a season like this, where the preseason storyline actually comes true. We're probably headed for another 2004 situation where the preordained teams (SEC champ and Texas) run the table and other undefeated champions of good conferences (Cincinnati, TCU) are prevented from playing for the national title simply because they stated the year farther down in the polls. I doubt the outcry will be as severe as when an SEC team got left out, since no one hollers quite as loudly as we do down here, but it will likely be more widespread if the reaction to Utah last year is any indication. Let's also not forget about Boise State either, as the Broncos look like they will have a perfect regular season for the third time in four years without getting a shot at playing for it all.
If anyone really thinks every week is a playoff, just look at Texas' schedule. Thanks in part to better teams pulling out on them, the Longhorns have four non-conference cupcakes. Their three Big 12 North opponents (Colorado, Kanas, Missouri) are a combined 4-11 in conference play. They have the cellar dwellars of the Big 12 South (Baylor, Texas A&M) as well. That leaves a total of three teams that you would expect to put up any sort of fight: Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma. Three decent opponents out of 12 does not make a playoff every week.
I don't mean to pick on the Longhorns, because it's not just them. Florida has three cupcakes plus the burned out husk of Florida State in its non-conference slate, and it's got the two worst teams of the SEC West along with Kentucky and Vandy on its SEC schedule. Alabama has three non-conference cupcakes, the worst of the SEC West, and none of the top two of the SEC East. Cincinnati has four terrible non-conference opponents, and the bottom four or five teams of the Big East are awful.
Even in the best case scenario (Alabama), none of the top teams have more than six games where the other team could be expected to give them a good game. That doesn't mean there won't be trap games here and there where a top team underwhelms (Florida versus Arkansas, Cincy versus Fresno State, Texas for much of its game with Colorado), but that doesn't make it a playoff every week. That adds one extra interesting game for each, and they're all still under Alabama's total of six.
Because these top teams only get challenged in at most half their games, just picking two teams at the end is not enough. It's a system whose rewards encourage situations like this year and that punishes teams for going out and scheduling like Georgia did. Maybe the Bulldogs weren't up to it as a team in this particular season, but if they could end up with just one loss after going down their gauntlet, then that would be far more impressive than playing three decent teams like Texas will have.
Yet, a 13-0 Texas team would be above that hypothetical 12-1 Georgia team in the pecking order because that's how the poll system works. So it goes in life with the BCS.
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Comments
You could blame it on the BCS. But you could also say it’s luck of the draw in a season defined by mediocrity – last year Florida played something like eight teams that went bowling (with two others a game short), and Oklahoma (and Texas) had brutal death-marches through the Big 12. And Florida survived a very stiff schedule in ’06 (that year we drew the four strongest teams in the West, including Arky in the SECCG.)
A playoff wouldn’t necessarily make things any better this year – it might just mean that teams in the top bracket could afford to drop a game they shouldn’t. Imagine how much less interesting Texas v Weenie U would be if it didn’t matter whether Texas even won. Crappy years happen occasionally… and this is one.
by peachy rex on Nov 12, 2009 11:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I agree with you completely on this
It doesn’t make sense not to. Some thoughts of ways to answer some objections people will raise, whadoya think?:
1) So that 10 teams can still get a BCS game, add a BCS bowl. I’m sure Capital One or someone will be more than happy to oblige. Or just make a new one.
2) The 1-4 and 2-3 matchups can rotate through the 5 sites, and the other 3 bowls can pick their teams like they do now. If the Rose Bowl wants Pac-10 Big-10 every year, well let them opt out of the rotation and have it rotate through the other 4.
3) The championship game can rotate through the sites like it does now, and can be played 2 weeks after the bowl. This only adds 1 extra week to the season (since the championship game is already played a week later), only adds 1 extra game for only 2 teams, doesn’t interfere with exams, etc.
4) To fix the Alabama/Florida both get in debate (or Michigan/Ohio State in 06, etc.) make it so only conference champions can get in to the two playoff games. Sure, some years maybe the 2nd best team in the country isn’t in the playoffs, but if you weren’t the best in your own conference you can’t be the best in the country. You already had your chance and lost it. This will also keep the regular season conference slates and the conference title games just as important as they are now.
I don’t see how anyone can raise a legitimate argument about lost revenue or whatever under this system. And like you say, this will allow non-BCS schools to sometimes get a crack at it, and it will definitely change scheduling incentives and therefore improve the regular season.
by negativeEV on Nov 12, 2009 12:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I love this plan!
I think Stewart Mandel (SI.com) has a similar idea.
But the fairness factor would require cleaning up the conference schedules…(for instance)
1) expand lagging conferences to 12 teams (so all teams play a conf champ game)
2) no more than 1 FCS game in a season for FBS NCG eligibility
The problem with fairness is how everyone has their own opinion of what is fair.
by crimson37 on Nov 12, 2009 12:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree 100% with your general observation
But Cincinnati’s OOC schedule is not “four terrible non-conference opponents.” They beat OrSt in Corvallis, a more impressive win in my estimation than Alabama’s W over Va.Tech given the location of the game. OrSt is 6-3, with losses to 9-0 Cincinnati, 7-2 USC, and 7-2 Arizona.
Likewise, TCU has a solid win over Clemson on its schedule, a team that may very well win the ACC still. The point being, While the Bearcats and Horned Frogs don’t have a necessarily stronger claim, they don’t particularly have a weaker one than the Longhorns, Crimson Tide, or Gators, in which case it would be all the more reason to have the +1 game!
by Nashville on Nov 12, 2009 12:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yes, Cincy does have weaker claim than any of the top 3.
One good (not great) OOC win does not make up for an extremely weak conference slate. It doesn’t help to have 3 point wins over some of those conferences laggards. This season has been defined by mediocrity, certainly, but the SEC and Pac 10 are clearly superior to the Big East. One brave road trip victory doesn’t compensate for that.
IMO, TCU is more qualified than Cincy.
by Giant Catfish on Nov 12, 2009 1:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Erm..
8-1 BCS #12 Pitt, 7-2 BCS #25 WVU, 6-2 BCS #24 USF, 6-2 BCS #38 Rutgers, and a 4-5 UConn team that has never lost by more than a field goal? Granted, Louisville and my Orange are terrible, but you could make an excellent case the Big East is the best conference in the country.
by drothgery on Nov 12, 2009 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
USF AND PITT ARE getting much better every year, but saying Big East is best conference in the country is crazy… I think having 3 teams in the top 10- bcs…beats having 4 teams in the top 25. LSU/9,FLA/1, Bama/2.
by Hook85 on Nov 12, 2009 8:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bah
Two in the top 12 is roughly equivalent to 3 in the top 12, given the relative size of the conferences and reputation issues (if Syracuse were playing like Cinci, we’d be no worse than #3, and probably #2; if Ohio State were playing like Cinci, they’d be #1).
by drothgery on Nov 12, 2009 9:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ok...?
I have no idea what you are saying
by Hook85 on Nov 13, 2009 12:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Simple math
Regarding conference size, 2 out of 8 is the same ratio as 3 out of 12. And if you don’t think traditional powers get favorable treatment from human poll voters, well, you’re on crack.
by drothgery on Nov 13, 2009 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
fuzzy math
yes 2 out of 8 is the same ratio is 3 out of 12.
I said top 10. NOT the top 12. Maybe human voters do unconciously favor big name schools, I dont know, niether do you. Saying I am on crack is dumb, and doesnt help your arguement.
your syracuse and ohio state comment is just a theory of your own, you act as if it is a fact.
Cinci has beat one ranked team, a #19 team. OREGON STATE.
Ohio state would of beaten 4 ranked teams so far, if they were undefeated.
PENN ST. USC, IOWA, WISCONSIN, that is why they would be number 1.
every conference uses the same excuse, the SEC only gets higher rankings because of thier history, out of the 11 year history of the BCS, the SEC has won 5. The next closest is 2 by the big 12. Big east, 1, from a school not even there anymore.
So say I am crack or whatever insult you like, but its not my problem your coference doesnt get the respect YOU say it should. Take that up with the BCS, wich also use a computer btw.
by Hook85 on Nov 17, 2009 5:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Seconded
Bama is less of a victim to this because of the SEC West this year, but Florida’s conference schedule is simply inadequate. The only ranked team they’ve beaten (or even played), is LSU.
In contrast, Cincy will play every other team in the Big East (due to their conference round robin), which includes or will include three currently ranked teams (USF, WVU, and Pitt), as well as their OOC victory at – ranked – Oregon St. Now, after tonight’s results, USF will probably drop out of the rankings…but they will probably be replaced by 7-2 Rutgers, another team Cincy has beaten.
Cincy is just as qualified based on resume alone as UF, Texas, or Alabama. I don’t know if that means they’d beat any of those teams, but that’s not what we’re discussing.
by Nashville on Nov 13, 2009 1:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Use the BCS poll, if you are going to complain about human voters, why use just human voters. Atleast use a ranking structure that matters, and the only one that uses a computer system.
USF,WVU ARE NOT RANKED. SO OREGON STATE is the only team CINCI has beat. and they are #18. They will play pitt, but FLA will also play Bama. and FLA one win against a ranked team, is #8. So that beats your theory. And I still dont believe the amount of BCS teams makes your schedule tougher, rather the quality of those BCS teams.
So say I am on crack or whatever insult you like, but its not my problem your coference doesnt get the respect YOU say it should. Take that up with the BCS, wich also use a computer btw.
every conference uses the same excuse, the SEC only gets higher rankings because of thier history, out of the 11 year history of the BCS, the SEC has won 5. The next closest is 2 by the big 12. Big east, 1, from a school not even there anymore.
Cleary the SEC deserves these top rankings as they prove it at the end of the year.
same thing i said to the other guy,
by Hook85 on Nov 17, 2009 5:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
As a Big East member, Cincinnati gets five non-conference games. Yes, Oregon State is a good opponent. However, the Bearcats also have Southeast Missouri State, Fresno State, Miami (OH), and Illinois and none of them are any good. Fresno is okay I guess, but their best win so far has been over Idaho. And really, no WAC team except Boise State counts as a good opponent.
It’s not Cincinnati’s fault that Illinois is bad, of course, just like it isn’t Texas’ fault that Arkansas pulled out on them for this year. Either way, if you’re counting good games, Cincy versus Illinois is not one.
Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog
by Year2 on Nov 12, 2009 5:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Again
I really do want to emphasize my agreement with your overall point. I think you are spot on about the need for a +1, but Cincinnati’s resume this year is no worse than either of the SEC favorites, and I think it probably is better than that of Texas.
But, what’s your point regarding their non-conference schedule? I could just as easily say, “as an SEC member, Florida gets four non-conference games. Charleston Southern, Troy, Florida International, and Florida St. It’s not UF’s fault that FSU is bad, of course, but if you’re counting good games, UF versus the Noles is not one.”
Again, this doesn’t mean I think Cincy would beat UF, but their resume at this point is certainly no worse. Especially considering the Big East, a conference with only 8 teams has four ranked.
by Nashville on Nov 13, 2009 12:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wasn’t trying to compare the teams against one another, only to point out that none of them have more than six competitive games in their seasons. With that few data points to go on, it’s foolhardy to say you can definitively say one team is better than another.
Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog
by Year2 on Nov 13, 2009 8:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think
that if I understand your “plus one” scenario, one likely case would be:
Alabama beats Florida
Alabama beats Texas
Florida beats school X
Alabama loses to Florida
Florida win NC? That’s a better result? I know I’m a Bama homer here, but I can’t see how that would make the SECCG a better product, or any other game for that matter. I also cannot see how that would make Florida a more valid champion than Alabama that way things are now? Help me out here.
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog." - Bear Bryant
by NJBammer on Nov 12, 2009 1:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Think of the NFL.
(random teams) Jets beat Patriots last day of season to win the division. Jets and Pats meet again in the AFC Championship game. Pats win, go on to win the Super Bowl. You wouldn’t claim that as unfair, would you?
It’s not a perfect system, but what is?
by Giant Catfish on Nov 12, 2009 1:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No, it's not a perfect system
and what Year 2 is suggesting is replacing one imperfect system with another. Why do that? The only reason proponents of the tournament system want it is because they like it, not because it is a truer way of determining a champion.
Look, I understand many people love the tournament system of determining a champion. But there is a great deal to be said about the College Football system, as well. I happen to love it and find a great many virtues that other systems lack. You crown a champion at the end of the year, and that champion has won the championship under the rules of that system. The college football champion is just as valid and fair (or invalid and unfair) as the tournament system.
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog." - Bear Bryant
by NJBammer on Nov 12, 2009 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You can’t have a playoff without the possibility of rematches, unless it’s a “conference champs only” deal (and even then there’s non-con games to consider.) And the playoff game has to take priority over the regular season one, or what’s the point of having the playoff? (I agree with you, by the way, that the current system has virtues that are often ignored by those advocating a playoff – or, I should say, a playoff with a larger bracket.)
Anyhow, if Bama won the SEC it would be the one playing Team X – and in your scenario, Florida would then have wins over Bama and Texas against a loss to Bama for a net of “beat Texas”, whereas Bama would have a net of “beat Team X.”
by peachy rex on Nov 12, 2009 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
thats is why
The NFL is the NFL. each week is meaningless. Surelyt you dont want it to become like the NFL. I wouldnt even watch other teams games anymore becuase it wouldnt matter to me if they lost.
by Hook85 on Nov 12, 2009 8:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The big picture comes into play when there are too many teams vying for the 2 NC spots
This season, it’s pretty cut-and-dried, so long as UF, Bama, and Texas make it to the conference championship games undefeated.
1) However, think back to 2006 with the UF versus Michigan controversy. What if just a couple votes had swung toward Michigan? What if Urban Meyer didn’t lobby so hard for the Gators? What if Lloyd Carr lobbies equally as hard? Given the beatdown of UF over OSU, it’s hard to support that an OSU-UM rematch would have been optimal.
2) Also, how about the past couple times Utah has gone undefeated? I know some people will point to Andre Smith being out for the Bama-Utah game, but the fact is they still beat the 2nd best team in the SEC last year. How does Utah get a fair shot at the title without screwing over, say, Florida last year?
I think issues such as these two outweigh the case when the Pats beat the Jets in a hypothetical playoff rematch mentioned in an above post. Of course the playoff games would count more – you can’t lose at the wrong time. The same thing happens during the current regular season – losing earlier in the season seems more “forgivable” to pollsters than losing late in the season.
by GoGators15 on Nov 12, 2009 2:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
This is kind of a misstatement of the argument
or at least the argument as I’ve always made it.
it’s that every week is certainly not a playoff
That’s not what my argument is. My argument is that the season is a playoff — and that’s not a distinction without a difference. What I’m talking about when I say that is that you qualify for the title game based on what you did during the season. (Ideally.) And any loss during that season can derail your chances. Under the current system, it’s possible (if not likely) that an undefeated TCU or Cincinnati could ride the computers to a title game berth if Florida were to lose to Florida State or Alabama were to get upset by Mississippi State and then that one-loss time were to lose the SECCG.
But let’s take things a step further: Are you honestly saying that if Alabama or Florida loses the SECCG by 1, TCU or Cincinnati or Boise should get into the plus-one ahead of them? If yes, then there’s no reason to say that a one-loss SEC champion should get into the title game this year, since a loss to Florida State or Auburn, for example, would be a much worse loss on the resume and should count against the team in question more heavily. If no, then you’ve effectively rendered the SECCG meaningless as far as postseason berths go, something that almost certainly would not happen under the current system. Unless of course Texas lost, which would even throw the current system into chaos and make things more entertaining.
My real problem with a plus-one system, which I could deal with on its own in real life, is that it’s a Trojan Horse for a wider playoff. No, plus-one would not devalue the regular season very much. I’ve even said that a six-team playoff would be fine, as long as we could set the system in stone for 50 years or something. But very few of the people calling for a plus-one system actually want a plus-one system. They want the four-team playoff so that there’s a controversy that in a few years will lead to it being expanded to eight teams and then to sixteen. That’s where the regular season gets devalued. And if you doubt it would happen, just look at where the basketball tournament was not too long ago and listen those proposing it should be as large as 128 teams.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
by cocknfire on Nov 12, 2009 2:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Well said
I don’t want college football becoming like college basketball, where the regular season is next to irrelevant. With a playoff, we’d be seeing Florida and Alabama resting pretty much all their players for their remaining games, knowing they can lose one, plus lose the SECCG, and still probably get in the playoffs. Who wants that? Who wants the ALA-AUB game decided without Mark Ingram on the field? Or Cody? That’s what would happen if we got a playoff system, and I just wish that the proponents would just admit that point and admit that they are ok with that, because that’s what they are saying.
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog." - Bear Bryant
by NJBammer on Nov 12, 2009 3:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The size of whatever BCS replacement system comes (and it is coming) must be designed so that it doesn’t allow that to happen. The playoff pools for most sports are too big. March Madness is too big. The NFL playoffs are too big. The NFL playoffs are too big.
Having four or six teams out of 120 go at it is not too big. College football already has the shortest regular season of any major sport, and when you throw in scheduling imbalances and the tendency of teams to schedule bad teams out of conference, the sample size of meaningful games for any one team is laughably small.
The pool has to be expanded beyond two. Eight is the edge of reason. More than eight would be a disaster.
Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog
by Year2 on Nov 12, 2009 5:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My point was that you can't credibly argue that it will stop there
Name one major sport that hasn’t expanded its playoff format in the last fifty or sixty years. Hasn’t happened. The NCAA tournament was eight teams as recently as 1950, 16 as recently as ‘52, 32 until ’78, 48 until ’82, 64 until ’00 and 65 now with some calling for more. Professional leagues generally started with two teams, then went to four and so on. Baseball has gone from four teams to eight in my lifetime and the NFL has 12 — for now. Some people want to have 14 teams in the playoffs. If we could have a playoff stop at four or six teams, I’m with you. But it has never happened before in the history of sports. Why do you think college football would be any different?
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
by cocknfire on Nov 12, 2009 7:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I can’t definitively… but that doesn’t mean a plus one is not the right way to go.
Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog
by Year2 on Nov 12, 2009 8:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Again. . .it has to be conference champions only
This makes the SECCG just as important, and makes the regular season more exciting, not less exciting. We’d be pretty sure Texas and the UF-Bama winner are in as the 1-2 seeds, but the race for 3 and 4 would still be very interesting. Uf-Bama plays 4, Texas plays 3, and then the winners meet. The loser of the UF-Bama game would still go to one of the other BCS games, just like they do now, just not the playoff. No difference there.
by negativeEV on Nov 12, 2009 6:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So Cincinnati deserves to be in the playoff more than the loser of Alabama-Florida?
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
by cocknfire on Nov 12, 2009 8:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes.
The point of a playoff is to determine the #1 team, not to determine the #2 team. Whoever loses the SEC title game has no claim at the national title for they are, at best, the second best team in the country. The thing about Cincinnati and TCU is that we don’t know.
Win your conference or shut up. If you have not won your conference, you have no legitimate claim to the national championship, as there is at least one team with a stronger claim.
Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
http://www.andthevalleyshook.com
by Poseur on Nov 14, 2009 11:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ridiculous!
I guess the BCS is damned if it do and damned if it don’t. You haters root for chaos to expose the system as a fraud and, absent that, you denounce the boredom. Your efforts are so transparent, they’re offensive. They’re also devoid of legitimate value and they’re never truly put to the test like the BCS.
When you expand the pool of participants for the national title, you also expand the number of slighted parties. Right now we’re on pace for five undefeated teams, meaning that a playoff would have to accomodate all of them and some others in order to be workable. And guess what happens when you incorporate some one-loss teams and not others?
Honestly, I am sick of attempts like this one to discredit a system that more often than not does it’s job. If you want to argue for a playoff system because it’s more enjoyable or exciting, that’s fine; but you better be willing to admit that it cheapens the regular season and randomizes the year’s results. What a joke…
"A player who conjugates a verb in the first person singular cannot be part of the squad, he has to conjugate the verb in the first person plural. We. We want to conquer. We are going to conquer. Using the word 'I' when you're in a group makes things complicated." ~ Wanderley Luxemburgo, 1999
by ejruiz on Nov 12, 2009 6:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I very much disagree with the standard “when you expand the pool of participants for the national title, you also expand the number of slighted parties” argument.
So say we finish the season with 5 undefeated teams as you say. How many of them are getting slighted under our current system? 3. How many are getting slighted with a 4 team NC system? 1. Number 5 is getting slighted under either system, nothing changes.
Most playoff system proposals do indeed cheapen the regular season, a lot. But a 4 team playoff, with only conference champions, doesn’t cheapen the regular season AT ALL. In fact, if you look at this season and over the past 10 seasons, you could argue it almost always ENHANCES the excitement of the regular season.
by negativeEV on Nov 12, 2009 6:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
See above for the problem with a four-team playoff
But as far as the “more slighted parties,” it’s a matter of how many teams can credibly argue to be in a certain spot.
It’s very hard for anybody to credibly argue right now that any teams below No. 3 in the polls deserves to be in the Top 3. Now, expand it to four teams and tell me which of the Top 8 wouldn’t at least be worth for one of those spots. The difference between Team 4 and Team 8 is in some years not even as large as between Team 2 and Team 3. So you’d have more teams arguing that they “deserve” a chance to get in the playoff. Doing something like limiting it to conference champions is somewhat arbitrary - why should the BE champion have a better chance of getting into the playoffs than the SEC or Big XII runner-up? And what about a year like 2007, where the second or third-best team in the country (Georgia) didn’t even get to the SECCG?
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
by cocknfire on Nov 12, 2009 8:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ignore the strikethrus
The auto-HTML isn’t going anywhere, no matter how much I or anyone else protests against it.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
by cocknfire on Nov 12, 2009 8:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I missed your point earlier about perpetual playoff expansion. . . .
and I must say you make a very good, and probably very prescient, point. If we believe that a 4 team playoff will soon be met with objections and calls for an 8 team playoff (which I believe is too much and would water down the regular season), than perhaps we shouldn’t even go there in the first place.
But I’m not sure limiting it to conference champions is arbitrary, in fact I think its just the opposite. Putting whatever teams you THINK are the best 4 in is arbitrary.
Its not the point that, say, Alabama and Florida are the best two teams in the country (if they are). The point is to be more likely to find, on the field, who the best team in the country is, and if Florida has beaten Alabama, we know Alabama isn’t the best team in the country. No point in putting them both in the playoff. 07 Georgia lost to South Carolina and Tennessee and didn’t win their own conference, you can’t be the best of 120 when you aren’t the best of 12, even if you are 2nd or 3rd out of the 120.
Back when the MLB had a 4 team postseason, I’m sure there were years that the Yankees and the Red Sox were the two best teams in baseball. But we didn’t put them both in the playoff and just arbitrarily leave someone else out who we didn’t THINK was as good.
by negativeEV on Nov 12, 2009 10:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ll finish by allowing that even a 4 team playoff where you have to win your conference to get in can still take some drama away from the regular season.
I was a Florida grad living in NYC watching the SEC championship game at one of the bars the NYC alumni association takes over on gameday. When they flipped to the USC/UCLA game, and when UCLA iced it with the INT, their was pure unbridled jubilation in the room. With a 4 team playoff? that would have been ho hum.
This year’s near escape against Arkansas wouldn’t have been nearly as scary if you knew for sure you were getting in anyway if you still went on to win the SEC. So end the end, not really sure where I stand on the 4 team vs. 2 team debate. Just wanted to play one side of it for a bit.
by negativeEV on Nov 12, 2009 10:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
In 2002
The logical 4-team playoff would have been Ohio State, Miami, USC, and Georgia. Except that Ohio State and Iowa were co-Big Ten champs, and Iowa owned the Rose Bowl tiebeaker (they did not play that year), while Washington State and USC were Pac 10 co-champs (and WSU had beat USC head-to-head).
by drothgery on Nov 13, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So what about Ole Miss-Florida last year?
if Florida has beaten Alabama, we know Alabama isn’t the best team in the country.
Then by extention don’t we know that if Ole Miss defeated Florida last year, it wasn’t the best team in the country? Head-to-head, as I’ve been saying over and over again since last year’s Big XII South controversy, is not always unquestinoably decisive.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
by cocknfire on Nov 13, 2009 10:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog
by Year2 on Nov 13, 2009 10:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A playoff system that is too large devalues the regular season. It doesn’t have to be too large though. Don’t know what you mean by “randomizes.”
Team Speed Kills
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by Year2 on Nov 12, 2009 7:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So how
would you avoid it becoming too large? I think cocknfire’s question above stands—there’s no credible evidence that could be done, thus ruining an awful lot of what makes college football great.
by wangalusa on Nov 12, 2009 10:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If the conference commissioners and university presidents can put their foot down and absolutely refuse to leave the BCS format, then they can do the same for a plus one.
Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog
by Year2 on Nov 13, 2009 8:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Since a 16-game playoff is not too large
… and you can’t have a larger playoff than that without shrinking the regular season, there’s a pretty solid built-in limit.
by drothgery on Nov 13, 2009 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
but I,
and many others, including Year2, think that’s prolly too large (or did you mean 16-TEAM, which is way way way too large), so WTF is your point?
What’s the external/internal pressure limiting it to 8 teams/16 games? “Not shrinking the regular season” is not a compelling argument, especially if that scenario would make conferences more $$$.
by wangalusa on Nov 14, 2009 3:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I meant 16-team, yes
A sixteen-team playoff actually has fifteen games (8+4+2+1). Sorry. And that’s less than a quarter of FBS, a much smaller ratio of playoff teams to actual teams than there is any other major sport, and even lower-division college football.
16 teams is 11 conference champions + 5 at-large. Which means every team can get to the playoffs purely based on what they do on the field, no matter what pollsters or computer ratings or a selection committee thinks, and there’s a few at-large spots for independents, excellent teams who tie for their conference/division title, and excellent teams that have the misfortune of being in the same conference as another excellent team.
by drothgery on Nov 14, 2009 12:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think what I don't agree with
is the idea that those 5 at-large teams will be selected based on some imagined perfectly objective criteria. For example, who determines which are the “excellent teams that have the misfortune of being in the same conference as another excellent team.” Won’t the polls be involved in this?
There’s always going to be someone left out, and I don’t think a playoff is going to change that.
by wangalusa on Nov 14, 2009 1:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agree with ejruiz above
We’ve currently got a so-so system, and while it’s certainly not perfect, I think it’s better than the various proposals out there that would substitute another so-so system while losing much of what makes CFB unique, as well as opening the door for the further NFL-ization of the sport.
I’d be more sympathetic to arguments against the BCS that weren’t cloaked in the “oh, the current system is so unfair, a playoff will end all unfairness” red herring. In the end, I think a lot of this has to do with:
a) increasingly shortened attention spans and a lack of appreciation for a system that takes a full four months to decide a champion, not a few weeks, and
b) the intensely regional nature of college football, and the fundamental impossibility of determining a “true” national champion, give the huge differences in resources, fan bases, etc.
by wangalusa on Nov 12, 2009 10:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I have a question
Last year, if you installed a plus one… FL beats OK, Texas beat Penn St, Utah beat Bama…who would you of picked to play in the NC game…someone would still be left out crying.
by Hook85 on Nov 12, 2009 8:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
It’s tough to apply a plus-one retrospectively because the matchups that actually occur happen the way they do because the top two teams are pulled from the pool for the title game. You might very well have had the same ten teams in the BCS bowls, but the matchups would have been different, and there’s no telling which bowl would take the fifth game, what its affiliations would be or where it would go in the selection process. The Rose would still have been USC-Penn St, but Oklahoma would have been in the Fiesta and Florida in the Sugar, and you have to figure that the Orange would have snapped up Bama or Texas or even Utah before Cincy (unless it picked dead last.)
If anything, the situation might have been even more muddled than it actually was – you could have ended with four or five teams fresh off high-profile wins clamouring for a title shot (Oklahoma, Florida, USC, at least one and possibly two of Utah/Texas/Bama depending on who played whom.) That’s the difficulty with a plus-one that doesn’t alter the bowl tie-ins or selection process – it potentially adds more information about the various contenders, but it doesn’t necessarily eliminate any of them.
by peachy rex on Nov 12, 2009 10:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent point.
A plus-one is a four-team playoff which maintains most of what sucks about the BCS.
by wangalusa on Nov 12, 2009 10:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There's two different models out there
There’s the ‘pure plus one’, which adds another BCS bowl, plays the ‘traditional’ matchups in the regular bowls, and then selects the title game participants. I don’t like this model, because it’s basically the current system, just with all the top teams playing one more reasonably tough game.
That would have been something like this last year (using BCS rules to select the ten teams; teams that would definitely be in the bowl listed are in bold; teams that would definitely be in are in italics)
Rose: USC (P10) v. Penn State (B10)
Fiesta: Oklahoma v. Alabama (at-large)
Sugar: Florida v. Texas (autobid as #3/#4 non-champ)
Orange: Virginia Tech v. Cincinatti (BigEast)
Cotton: Ohio State (at-large) v. Utah (autobid as top non-BCS champ in the top 8)
Say USC, VT, Oklahoma, Florida, and Utah win. Who plays in the title game? VT’s out, but the other four have pretty good cases.
The other variant is a ‘seeded plus one’, or a four team mini-playoff (which has two sub-variants, one with a one-team per conference/champions only qualifier, and one not).
With a ‘conference champs only’ qualifier or a one team per conference rule, you get
Semifinal 1: BCS#1 Oklahoma v. BCS #6 Utah
Semifinal 2: BCS#2 Florida v. BCS #5 USC
Without a one team per conference rule, you get
Semifinal 1: BCS#1 Oklahoma v. BCS #4 Alabama
Semifinal 2: BCS#2 Florida v. BCS #3 Texas
… though it’s possible pollsters would have voted differently if they were sending the top 4 to the semifinals. The most obvious is USC likely jumps Alabama for #4 (they were tied in the coaches poll and ’Bama had a small lead in the Harris in reality).
by drothgery on Nov 14, 2009 12:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think in the system being proposed that those were the matchups that would have occured. You would have had a 1-4, 2-3 thing, and the other BCS bowls would pick like normal. Assuming only conference champions get into the playoffs, again under the reasoning that if you aren’t the best in your conference you can’t be the best in the country, you would have likely had Oklahoma vs. Utah, Florida vs. USC, and the winners of those two games play each other.
by negativeEV on Nov 12, 2009 10:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ok, what about Texas, or OK?
why do they get left out? OK won the big 12, but was beat by Texas, so they would get left out because they didnt win thier division. Also OK, would play Penn St.? Like peachy rex is saying there will always be teams left out.
by Hook85 on Nov 13, 2009 12:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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