Devil's Advocate: UF-LSU Does Mean a Lot to Florida

by Year2 on Oct 8, 2009 10:33 AM EDT in Football Comment 5 comments

This sort of thing could end up a problem.

I've seen a lot of people with cavalier attitudes regarding the importance of the Florida-LSU game to Florida. "Oh sure," they say, "Florida can lose this game and it won't matter because they can still go to the national title game." While I tend to agree that it will be tough to keep a one-loss SEC team out of the national title game, I don't think it's quite so cut and dried thanks to the Gators' schedule:

Charleston Southern: Meaningless.
Troy: Cupcake.
Tennessee: Still rebuilding and staring down a 2-6 conference season right now.
Kentucky: Not going to finish ranked.
LSU: A high quality team.
Arkansas: Still rebuilding thanks to not having a defense.
Mississippi State: Frisky, but still a bad team.
Georgia: Not great, but has a chance to finish the year ranked.
Vanderbilt: Back to being bad again.
South Carolina: Looking better, but no lock to finish ranked.
FIU: Cupcake.
Florida State: A sinking ship.

Florida's schedule right now only has one team on it that appears to be something of a lock to finish the year ranked: LSU. Georgia probably will, but it's no guarantee thanks to the Bulldogs' inconsistency and the wave of injuries that has begun to strike again. South Carolina is a maybe too, but they can't be trusted until they prove they won't collapse in November again.

It's possible that if the Gators lose to LSU but still win the conference that the SEC Championship Game opponent will be the only ranked team they will have defeated, or at least the only top-15 or 20 team they will have defeated. In this weird season that, combined with the SEC's reputation, may be enough to get the Gators to Pasadena, but voters are fickle and the computers don't like weak schedules.

The best bet, as always, is to just win them all.

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SEC can't keep getting lucky

We’ve been extremely fortunate to send one and two loss teams to the MNC as other one loss teams get passed up. This could be the year where one undefeated team (lets say Texas) meets a one-loss team that ISN’T from the SEC… Like USC, Iowa, Cincy, etc… it all depends on those computers and this could be the year the SEC finally gets screwed.

Think about it, the only time the SEC has EVER entered tne MNC game ranked number 1 was the first year of the BCS, with Tenn. All other times we come in at a thankful number 2.

Just saying, strength of conference only goes so far when your conference is strong and your schedule is too. UF needs to root like hell for Bama to dominate if they lose to LSU as it would be the only wild card left for them in the SEC CG

by knowshon loves legos on Oct 8, 2009 11:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

KLL brings up a good point

You left the potential SECCG opponent out of the equation, which would be a highly ranked team. I agree that it would take a win over an undefeated Alabama or LSU team to even give you an argument you could make with a straight face.

I think we should avoid the situation and win Saturday…..

by skigator93 on Oct 8, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I left the SECCG opponent out of the schedule rundown, but not out of the conclusion:

It’s possible that if the Gators lose to LSU but still win the conference that the SEC Championship Game opponent will be the only ranked team they will have defeated, or at least the only top-15 or 20 team they will have defeated.

I don’t think that two of Texas, Cincinnati/USF, and Iowa/Wisconsin all run the table, but I didn’t have Oklahoma at 2-2 either. If Florida goes unbeaten they’re in, but all bets are off once you take on a loss.

Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog

by Year2 on Oct 8, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've always believed we needed to go undefeated to get in

This schedule is incredibly weak. I suppose I can understand why LSU fans are saying this game doesn’t matter. They are aiming for SECG, not MNC apparently. I don’t think we can continue getting the benefit of the doubt in the one loss discussion. One day it’s going bite us on the ass (as a conference), and I think this might be that year.

As I said before, the only way I think UF gets in if we lose this Saturday is if we face, and defeat handily, an undefeated Alabama in the SECG.

by Giant Catfish on Oct 8, 2009 1:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs