It's Not Just Tennessee

by Year2 on Oct 7, 2009 1:45 PM EDT in Football Comment 0 comments

Not to seem like I'm picking on Tennessee with my post below about how Tennessee's 2009 offensive numbers fall when you take out the WKU outlier game, here's a look at how some ranked teams fare when their outlier games are removed. The outlier games are either against I-AA teams or simply bad I-A teams (as is the case with WKU).

The Outlier column below indicates the opponent, score of the game, and the total yards gained by the team.

Team	PPG	YPG	Outlier	PPG Adj.	Difference	YPG Adj.	Difference
Florida	45.5	526.25	CSU, 62-3, 624	40.0	-5.5	493.67	-32.58
Texas	49.5	521.25	UTEP, 64-7, 639	44.6	-4.9	482.00	-39.25
Alabama	40.5	490.50	No. Texas, 53-7, 523	36.3	-4.2	479.67	-10.83
USC	28.8	430.60	SJSU, 56-3, 620	22.0	-6.8	383.25	-47.35
Cincinnati	42.0	468.20	SEMO, 70-3, 578	35.0	-7.0	440.75	-27.45
TCU	34.8	423.50	Tex. St., 56-21, 508	27.7	-7.1	395.30	-28.20
Oklahoma State	39.0	419.75	Grambling, 56-6, 587	33.3	-5.7	364.00	-55.75
Oklahoma	35.5	424.75	Idaho St., 64-0, 564	26.0	-9.5	378.33	-46.42
Ole Miss	32.5	373.50	SELA, 52-6, 500	26.0	-6.5	331.33	-42.17
USF	37.0	413.60	Two I-AAs, 99-7, 906	28.7	-8.3	387.33	-26.27

As you can see, teams like USC, Cincinnati, TCU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, and USF lose about a touchdown or more when adjusted, and four of them lose 40 or more yards per game. This is why stats can be so misleading, especially early on in the season.

0 recs | Comment 0 comments | Share