It's Not Just Tennessee

Not to seem like I'm picking on Tennessee with my post below about how Tennessee's 2009 offensive numbers fall when you take out the WKU outlier game, here's a look at how some ranked teams fare when their outlier games are removed. The outlier games are either against I-AA teams or simply bad I-A teams (as is the case with WKU).

The Outlier column below indicates the opponent, score of the game, and the total yards gained by the team.

Team PPG YPG Outlier PPG Adj. Difference YPG Adj. Difference
Florida 45.5 526.25 CSU, 62-3, 624 40.0 -5.5 493.67 -32.58
Texas 49.5 521.25 UTEP, 64-7, 639 44.6 -4.9 482.00 -39.25
Alabama 40.5 490.50 No. Texas, 53-7, 523 36.3 -4.2 479.67 -10.83
USC 28.8 430.60 SJSU, 56-3, 620 22.0 -6.8 383.25 -47.35
Cincinnati 42.0 468.20 SEMO, 70-3, 578 35.0 -7.0 440.75 -27.45
TCU 34.8 423.50 Tex. St., 56-21, 508 27.7 -7.1 395.30 -28.20
Oklahoma State 39.0 419.75 Grambling, 56-6, 587 33.3 -5.7 364.00 -55.75
Oklahoma 35.5 424.75 Idaho St., 64-0, 564 26.0 -9.5 378.33 -46.42
Ole Miss 32.5 373.50 SELA, 52-6, 500 26.0 -6.5 331.33 -42.17
USF 37.0 413.60 Two I-AAs, 99-7, 906 28.7 -8.3 387.33 -26.27

 

As you can see, teams like USC, Cincinnati, TCU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, and USF lose about a touchdown or more when adjusted, and four of them lose 40 or more yards per game. This is why stats can be so misleading, especially early on in the season.

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