SEC Leads the Way In Unbeatens
by Year2 on Oct 6, 2009 12:01 PM EDT
in Football
19 comments
Last week, I took a look at the number of undefeated teams left and how much lower the number was than in 2007 and 2008. There were just 17 undefeated teams left, and four of them lost over last weekend. That leaves just 13 unbeaten teams this season: Alabama, Auburn, Boise State, Cincinnati, Florida, Iowa, Kansas, LSU, Missouri, USF, TCU, Texas, and Wisconsin.
I could just do a table to sort those by conference, but why do that when a pie chart will do?
I can use Excel!
You got it, the SEC has the most undefeated teams left in the country. Sure, the number is going to have to go down by at least one this weekend since Florida and LSU play each other. Still, in this crazy season where unbeaten teams are dropping like flies, it's worth at least a gold star sticker to have the most undefeated teams left at this point in the season.
But wait! What's that I hear? It's a chorus of voices coming from the rest of the country shouting "SEC teams play bad schedules! SEC teams don't play anyone!" Don't worry, I've got you covered. I went through all the undefeated teams and looked at how many teams from Big Six conferences they've played. The results may surprise you if you're one of the ones shouting those mantras.
| Conference | Teams | Pct. BCS Opp. |
| SEC | 4 | 63% |
| Big Ten | 2 | 50% |
| MWC | 1 | 50% |
| Big East | 2 | 40% |
| Big 12 | 3 | 25% |
| WAC | 1 | 20% |
Among the four SEC teams' opponents, 63 percent of them came from BCS conferences. LSU leads the way for everyone by having four of its first five opponents be from the Big Six. Alabama and Auburn have had three of their five opponents be BCS opponents, and two of Florida's four have been as well. The only other conference where all of its undefeated teams have 50 percent or more of opponents be from BCS conferences is the Mountain West, where TCU has had two of its four from the Big Six.
The only team besides the four SEC teams and TCU that has had half or more of its opponents from a BCS conference is Iowa. The Big 12 unbeatens are particularly bad in this regard as Texas, Kansas, and Missouri have all played just one AQ conference opponent each, with Kansas having played only Duke and Missouri having played only the sinking ship known as Illinois. Boise State has of course played only Oregon, and that's the only Big Six conference team the Broncos will play all season.
It's of dubious value to be the best league during a down year for the sport, but when you combine this sort of data with the fact that the SEC has the best non-conference record so far, it makes the conference look pretty good. I'll leave it up to someone else to go fight the conference wars, but it's an encouraging sign since the SEC was down last year. Things are looking up, and this is just one of the reasons why.
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To defend the MWC and WAC
Its easy to play more BCS teams when you are in a BCS conference.
by Bobby Briggs on Oct 6, 2009 12:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree for MWC, because their potential busters have gone out of their way to make up for the lack of BCS opponents from the conference.
But not for Boise.
They could have a schedule that includes the likes of, say, Texas Tech, OkSt, and Mississippi State (like Houston).
Or Oklahoma and Florida State (like BYU).
Or Virginia and Clemson (like TCU).
Or, they can be smart, and realize that they can schedule just one BCS team, hopefully beat them (through some combination of the Broncos being good and the BCS opponent being bad, and if their opponent this year subsequently beat Purdue by 2, you know which it was) to jump into the rankings, and then slowly bubble towards the top of the rankings as teams above them lose, but they cruise through the WAC schedule.
*bump* U!
*set* of!
*SPIKE* OOOOOOOOO!
"I can't wait to read Cal Golden Blogs after this." -my friend, leaving Autzen after the 42-3 beatdown of the Bears.
by AllSaintsDay on Oct 6, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
heh. bitter, much? ;-)
OK, all kidding aside now…
I don’t know if it’s a doctrine they hold to, but Boise seems to insist on home-and-home contracts with BCS teams (which they deserve), and Boise is not the most popular destination for teams. Between the odd turf and the smaller stadium, a lot of the BCS teams don’t see sufficient payout for the deal.
But, looking at it from a BCS school POV, why would you schedule Boise? They’re a great team that can destroy your SoS, even if you beat them, because their conference slate is so bad. You can actually get a comparable SoS by taking on a good-not-great MAC or C-USA team and (for many BCS schools) travel shorter distances. If you really want the bump, the MWC top end has much better SoS marks for the same risk of losing.
Actually, because there are three consistently top-25ish teams in the MWC, they have a much easier time getting BCS opponents. When you play BYU, for example, a part of your SOS score will depend on Utah and TCU (in addition to the rest of the MWC). That’s much healthier than playing Boise and have the secondary part of the SOS come from the WAC. Also, TCU, BYU and Utah have bigger stadia:
+ Boise (Bronco Stadium) :: 32,000
+ Utah (Rice-Eccles) :: 45,017
+ TCU (Amon G. Carter) :: 46,000
+ BYU (LaVell Edwards) :: 64,045
Revenue-wise, exposure-wise, and prestige-wise, playing Boise is just not as attractive as playing the MWC biggies.
Now, that said, I don’t know how hard Boise tries to schedule BCS teams. But I do know that they are at a disadvantage, at the very least.
by Hooper on Oct 7, 2009 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still feel like they could probably get moderate-to-low Big Six schools, a la Houston vs. MSU, that aren’t really expecting to get up into any BCS talk. Yeah, you’re not going to be playing Oregon, Southern Cal, and Texas on the blue turf, but I have to imagine Oregon, a MWC power, and a mid-range Big XII North team is doable (or at least something like that. And I wouldn’t come down as hard if they had a non-con against Utah, TCU, or BYU. But to claim you’re trying your best to show that you deserve the respect your given means that you do not schedule UC-Davis.
And if they were serious and thought the blue turf was hurting them, they’d get over themselves and ditch it.
*bump* U!
*set* of!
*SPIKE* OOOOOOOOO!
"I can't wait to read Cal Golden Blogs after this." -my friend, leaving Autzen after the 42-3 beatdown of the Bears.
by AllSaintsDay on Oct 7, 2009 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let's not confuse
BCS conference opponents and non-conference opponents. The SEC schedules its conference games throughout the first three weeks of the season (as opposed to what the Big XII and Big Ten do). That’s the only reason that Florida has played a BCS conference team. When all is said and done, the number of BCS opponents will look like this
Iowa: 10 BCS Opponents
LSU: 9
Florida: 9
Alabama: 9
Auburn: 9
Kansas: 9
Mizzou: 9
Cincy: 9
USF: 9
Texas: 8
Wisconsin: 8
TCU: 2
Boise: 1
In reality, Mizzou’s schedule is a mirror of Florida’s – collapsing rival on one end and three non-BCS teams mixed in. Of course, Mizzou isn’t afraid to get on an airplane to play a non-con game, so they have that over the Gators. Texas would be at 9 if Arkansas (of the SEC!) hadn’t backed out on their game with the Horns this off-season. Wisconsin has no excuse but cowardice.
http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
by Bama Hawkeye on Oct 6, 2009 2:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The point wasn’t so much to make astatement about schedules for the entire season (as this piece claims no predictive power whatsoever) but to point out that the four SEC undefeated teams did not get to be that way solely by feasting on cupcakes. I figured that’d be the snap reaction for some folks so I just wanted to nip it in the bud. The full season schedules will be judged on their own merits at the end of the season once we know the true character of most teams.
Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog
by Year2 on Oct 6, 2009 5:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Noted.
http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
by Bama Hawkeye on Oct 6, 2009 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
While the SEC....
….play too many crap teams, they OOC scheduling has stepped up dramatically over the last few years and it’s gotten worse elsewhere, two things many people don’t/won’t acknowledge.
by Nico2.0 on Oct 6, 2009 6:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Slow down
Alabama has gone seven consecutive seasons without playing a road non-conference game against a BCS squad. They finally break the streak next year. With Duke. That’s just sad.
Florida hasn’t left the state to play a non-con game in almost 20 years. That’s just sad.
Excluding Georgia, who has shown testicular fortitude of the highest magnitude in their scheduling, the SEC hasn’t stepped up. Go back 25 years, and you would find Penn State, Georgia Tech and Boston College on Alabama’s non-conference schedule. You would find Miami and Syracuse to go with Florida St. on Florida’s. Auburn had games with Miami, Texas, Georgia Tech and Florida State.
Look, if you want to say that SEC teams don’t have to schedule real teams as non-con opponents, I won’t argue with you. We have a system which puts far too little emphasis in strength of non-conference opponents. But don’t claim that the SEC has “stepped up its scheduling dramatically,” because history shows otherwise.
http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
by Bama Hawkeye on Oct 6, 2009 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm pretty sure
Alabama doesn’t play their home games in the Georgia Dome. I know the ACC sucks, but it’s a little overboard to kick VT out of the BCS.
by GwinnettGamecock on Oct 6, 2009 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not a true home game
But it sure isn’t a road game.
Actually traveling to an opposing team’s stadium is a far more difficult proposition and much likelier to result in a loss.
by Nashville on Oct 7, 2009 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A state boundary is an arbitrary delineation.
Florida may not leave the state, but it plays legitimate BCS opponents in Florida St. and Miami on a pretty regular basis. I don’t think what state an away game takes place in is as important as you are making it out to be.
Dum spiro spero - "While I breathe, I hope"
State motto of South Carolina
by The Feathered Warrior on Oct 6, 2009 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
Florida has played Miami three times in the last 20 years. @Miami in 2003 and hosting Miami in 2002 and 2008. And that game at Miami is the ONLY BCS non-conference road game that Florida has played since 1991 other than FSU. Look, if Miami became an annual game with Florida, there’s no problem with not leaving the state. But Florida’s non-con schedule is entirely dependent upon FSU being good. That has not been a reliable proposition this decade.
http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
by Bama Hawkeye on Oct 7, 2009 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Furthermore
Iowa has scheduled decently by Big Ten standards. You have a middling Pac-10 opponent, a bad in-state rival, a barely D-I buyout game, and an in-state 1-AA. That isn’t great, but it isn’t horrible either. There are several others in the Big Ten who have played absolutely atrocious OOC slates. Penn State is the most egregious example, but mid-tier and bottom feeders from the conference are guilty as well.
It is a pet peeve to hear Big Ten backers slam SEC schedules. I wish Florida would travel more too, however they have played Miami and FSU among those in-state games you deride. Many years, one would be hard pressed to find more challenging opponents in any state for an away game. I’d be willing to bet Spurrier/Zook/Meyer would have jumped at the chance to visit Iowa City instead of staying in Florida for those rivalry games.
The ultimate point of scheduling is to make sure each team has faced sufficient challenges to adequately asses it’s merit. SEC teams do this better than anyone. At the end of the regular season, I will be stunned if the SOS of the Hawkeyes or any other Big Ten program outside of Columbus is anywhere above middle of the pack in the SEC.
by GwinnettGamecock on Oct 6, 2009 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let's see...
Jacksonville and Atlanta aren’t home games the last time I checked. Also, Alabama gets away from eight home games and takes flack for being willing to travel to “lesser” programs. We can’t win. But if you’re interested, here’s our OOC road slate for the recent past and next several years:
2007: Florida State (neutral)
2008: Clemson (neutral)
2009: Virginia Tech (neutral)
2010: @ Duke
2011: @ Penn State
2012: @ Tulane
2014: @ Georgia Tech
2016: @ Michigan State
LSU has been travelling to the Pac-10 (Washington & Arizona), Tennessee has gone to UCLA and Cal and has a series with Oklahoma (or maybe Nebraska) set up soon, Auburn with West Virginia, Mississippi State has gone to West Virginia and Georgia Tech, Ole Miss did a series with Wake Forest, Vandy traveled to Michigan, Georgia has stepped it up. Those have all happened in the last few years and those are just the ones I can think of without even looking anything up.
I’m the first one to admit SEC scheduling lacked something quite a bit, but if you can’t see that it hasn’t stepped up in the last few years, then there’ll never be any convincing you.
Tons of Big 10 teams play FCS schools too. Michigan lost to App State and I vaguely remember Iowa nearly choking one away to kick off this season.
by Nico2.0 on Oct 6, 2009 11:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I said road not neutral
And you know that there’s a difference. Your worry level for the VaTech would have been increased by a factor of 10 if McElroy had to make his first start in Blacksburg instead of Atlanta.
Nico, I’ve read you for too long to think that you honestly believe that moving from Penn State, BC, and GT to a single game versus one BCS squad per year is “stepping up” the competition. Are you saying that this is better than 2006, when they played 4 tomato cans? That’s like seeing an item priced at $10 this week and $20 next week. When you return in the third week, the item is on sale for 25% off – or $15.
There is no reason that Alabama’s 2010 schedule shouldn’t be the norm, not the exception. A 1-AA game, a 1-A cupcake, and two BCS foes – one home and one road.
http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
by Bama Hawkeye on Oct 7, 2009 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Neutral vs. road vs. home
Neutral might not be road, but it’s not quite like home either. Sure, McElroy in Blacksburg would’ve been worse than him in Atlanta, but that wasn’t as good as him opening things up in Tuscaloosa.
And no, I don’t believe the current OOC scheduling for Alabama equals that of the 70s and 80s. However, how things have been recently (and are shaping up to be) is a drastic improvement over the likes of 2004 when the OOC slate was Western Carolina, Utah State and Southern Miss. I’m not comparing things to 20+ years ago, because it’s unrealistic to expect things to be like that again. I was comparing to the very recent past.
Looking at the Top 25 this year, not a lot of ranked teams are scheduling like they could (or should) and are just as bad or worse than the oft-criticized OOC SEC scheduling. I just looked at a few Top 25 teams (non-SEC, but BCS) at random and here’s what I found:
Texas: Wyoming, UTEP, UCF, LA-Monroe
Ohio State: USC, Toledo, New Mexico St., Navy
Iowa: Northern Iowa, Iowa State, Arizona, Arkansas State
Miami: USF, Florida A&M, Oklahoma, UCF
Penn State: Akron, Temple, Syracuse, Eastern Illinois
Kansas: Northern Colorado, UTEP, Duke, Southern Miss
USC: Notre Dame, Ohio State, San Jose State
VaTech: Alabama, Nebraska, Marshall, East Carolina
Some of those teams are scheduling big (VaTech, Miami, USC…though ND fills the “FSU” role ala Florida), but plenty of them (PSU, Texas, Kansas) have a schedules full of duds, and some of the others have the one “name” team and a bunch of duds which is what a lot of SEC teams do. Sure, one year is not a perfect sample, but plenty of big name, non-SEC schools schedule the dregs of the NCAA and no one seems to mind.
by Nico2.0 on Oct 7, 2009 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well we may play Duke away next year...
but that is only because our home/away series with Penn St. is coming to Ttown….the next year we will play Penn St. on the TRUE road…. so dont gripe the scheduling has been genius in my humble opinion!
Great Game Hokies! What a battle!
by The Voice of Reason on Oct 7, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
dude...
it’s your job to fight the conference wars.
Roll 'Bama Roll: The Champagne of 'Bama Blogs.
by kleph on Oct 6, 2009 7:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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