Topics for Discussion // 10.24.09
by cocknfire on Oct 24, 2009 11:23 PM EDT
in SEC Football
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PrintWhat was that? Alabama survives thanks to the sizable hand of Mt. Cody, Florida defeats Mississippi State in a game that wasn't truly over until late in the fourth quarter and South Carolina had to come back to win against Vanderbilt. LSU was the only ranked team in the league that looked good (at least according to the final score) after being one of the most suspect of the ranked teams all year long. So where does the SEC stand after one of the strangest Saturdays in a while?
Does the weekend take away anything from the inevitable Alabama-Florida showdown in the Championship Game? Neither of these teams looked incredibly impressive Saturday, and they each need the other to be a marquee team in early December. Maybe it's too early to worry about that.
What's wrong with Tim Tebow? Is anything wrong at all? He doesn't seem to have the extra star power that he brought into the season and had a bad night passing (12-of-22, 127 yards, 2 INTs) to go with another fair effort on the ground (22 rushes, 88 yards, 1 TD). If it weren't for his much advertised "leadership," he wouldn't even be in the Heisman race anymore. But let's not forget that he does still lead a team that was undefeated the last time I checked.
What say you about Tennessee? In their next game back from shellacking Georgia and after a bye week, the Vols didn't exactly look stellar against Alabama. A bowl game is still likelier than not, but I'm having trouble seeing how this season ends with Tennessee having more than six or seven wins.
Is Ole Miss back among the better teams? The Rebels piled up 553 yards against Arkansas and limited the high-octane Bobby Petrino offense to 299 total yards. Jevan Snead was 22-of-33 for 332 yards and 2 TDs. Of course, he also threw two picks to go along with a fumble by Cordera Eason. But even with all that, Ole Miss won by nearly two touchdowns.
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- The middle of the SEC is a jumbled mess, and the top and bottom are awfully close to the middle right now. On the other hand, the standings don’t lie, and there are only a handful of games left that can really affect them. Bama can virtually nail down the West next week, and Florida w/help from Tenn can do the same in the East. But upsets could muddy the picture considerably.
- It would if there were teams tearing it up right now (outside the MWC and Big East, that is.) Grinding your way to an undefeated SEC title, regardless of how unsightly the process, is probably going to be sufficient for a title berth this year. (Losses prior to Atlanta by either division champ could complicate matters a bit, of course.)
- I don’t know, but something’s not right. He’s had seriously off halves before, but he’s never been this off for so long. The play-calling hasn’t been helping either; trying to turn him into a five-wide passing maestro isn’t the way forward.
- Tennessee’s part of the muddled middle; they could win any game left, and lose just about any of them too. (Memphis should be the only gimme.)
- See Tennessee, above; far too many teams are far too close in ability, and they all have very high variance… drawing conclusions from any given game is pretty futile, I think, and projecting most of them is no less so. We’re last year’s ACC.
LSU says "hi!"
Bama can virtually nail down the West next week,
Gregatron is not responsible for any of the crap he just wrote.
St. Louis vegetarian blog
I was about to say..
LSU still controls its destiny, people!
Father. Husband. Lawyer. Nerd.
by Richard Pittman on Oct 25, 2009 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Ahem, please note that I also said :
“But upsets could muddy the picture considerably.”
LSU’s in better shape than anybody outside Bama and Florida, no doubt – and with a win it would jump into the driver’s seat in the West. But Bama has the edge because a victory would actually give it the division unless Ole Miss forced a wonky three-way tie, whereas LSU would still have work to do… though it could take the division by winning out, so it does “control its destiny” at this point. (The Eastern teams chasing Florida are in a tougher spot because they would likely need a head-to-head victory over the Gators, or a three-way tie, and another Florida loss.)
On reflection, that’s not quite correct : if Bama were to beat LSU, the Tigers would be out of the running, because they’d be two games and the tie-break behind with only two games to play, and there’s no possibility of a three-way tie with Bama & Ole Miss at 6-2 (either LSU or Ole Miss is guaranteed a third loss regardless of other results.)
But, Ole Miss would still be alive – like teams in the East it needs to win out, and Bama to lose a second game against someone, which is why LSU is second in the pecking order in the division right now.
Actually, what really threw me was "next week"
I get now that you were referring to the LSU-Bama game, but that isn’t next week. That’s two weeks from tonight. LSU plays Tulane next week.
Father. Husband. Lawyer. Nerd.
by Richard Pittman on Oct 25, 2009 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions
The best-case scenario for Ole Miss
is for LSU and State or Auburn to beat Bama (somewhere between “highly unlikely” and “making contact with alien worlds”). In the 6-2 three-way tie (with the Alabama > Ole Miss > LSU > Alabama), Ole Miss wins by virtue of in-division record against Bama and head-to-head against LSU. This, of course, assumes a whole lot of stuff that isn’t going to happen.
Red Cup Rebellion - Changing the culture of Ole Miss Athletics
Destroying your traditions since [YEAR REDACTED].
Of the teams that have more than a theoretical chance at their divisions, Ole Miss is probably in the weakest position because – unlike LSU, UGA and USC – it’s already down a tie-break to the current leader. So, yeah, you guys either need Bama to fall apart completely, or to find yourselves in a three-way tie. I wouldn’t rule either scenario out, though they do seem pretty unlikely.
(Kentucky, Tenn, Auburn and Miss St are all just barely alive, but the best they can do is come out on top of a tie, and they all need everything to go their way; at least I think they’re all alive, I haven’t worked out the tie-breaks. I believe in every case it would have to a multi-way tie, even for Auburn, which makes it extra-dicey.)
The first tie-breaker is head-to-head, the second is division record
So essentially you look at losses. Are they in-division or out-of-division? On that score, if LSU beats Bama, and either Auburn or MSU beats Bama, and Ole Miss beats LSU, Bama is OUT. The first tie-breaker would be no help, because every team would be 1-1 against the teams in the tie-break scenario. It would then go to division record and Bama would have 2 in-division losses where Ole Miss and LSU would only have 1. Hence, Bama would be eliminated. After eliminating Bama, you go back to the first tie-breaker and see where you are. Ole Miss would win that one.
Strangely enough, if LSU beats Bama and Ole Miss beats LSU and MSU or Auburn beats Bama, Ole Miss would NEED for LSU to beat Arkansas. Otherwise it would not be a 3-way tie as LSU would have 3 losses compared to only 2 for Ole Miss and Bama. It would be only a two-way tie, and Bama would beat Ole Miss on the first tie-breaker.
So yeah, how’s that for a scenario.
Of course, Ole Miss would also have to beat Auburn and Mississippi State.
Ole Miss’s road to the SEC Championship is not an easy one at all from this point on.
Father. Husband. Lawyer. Nerd.
by Richard Pittman on Oct 25, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
After deciding against it this past week
I’m going to begin our Road to Atlanta series this week, since both Alabama and Florida suddently look mortal enough to lose somewhere along the way. I will figure all the reasonable scenarios out by then. Look for it Tuesday or Wednesday.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
Oh yeah, I know what’s necessary for the teams that have a realistic chance, more or less (including Ole Miss) – I meant I haven’t looked in detail at the teams which can’t do better than a three-way tie at this point. (In theory, Bama could lose the last three, and Ole Miss could beat out LSU on head-to-head.)
Okay, that makes sense
I forgot Alabama had a bye next week. LSU does not (obviously). Yeah, a win against LSU does practically wrap it up.
Gregatron is not responsible for any of the crap he just wrote.
St. Louis vegetarian blog
Oh, wow, another miscall from Penn Wagers' crew?
And in a Florida game? Whoulda thunkit.
Ole Miss controlled the game
Time of possession, yardage, and third down efficiency all heavily favor the Rebels. And the defense was rock solid—like it’s been all season. We did give up some big plays, but take away a third and forever that turned into an amazingly lucky 58 yard TD pass, and the score (and yardage) become even more lopsided. Also, the 2 INT stat looks a lot worse than it really was. The first was an end of the half hail mary, and the second was just a great play by the Arkansas defender.
Ole Miss still wants to play some football this season, and this is just the game we needed. Now we’ve just gotta keep it up when we head down to the plains.
Replying simply to emphasize.
Snead’s two picks signify nothing. They weren’t his fault whatsoever.
Red Cup Rebellion - Changing the Culture of Ole Miss Athletics
Take a picture, trick.
by The Ghost of Jay Cutler on Oct 25, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
As long as we're playing "What If"...
Take away the 8 drops that Arkansas had, and the game becomes less one-sided. Most of those drops had nothing to do with Ole Miss’ defense and everything to do with receivers dropping very well thrown passes that should be caught unconditionally.
We weren't really playing "what if" games,
we were really just saying you can’t fault Snead for the picks. They weren’t the result of him doing something wrong.
Red Cup Rebellion - Changing the Culture of Ole Miss Athletics
Take a picture, trick.
by The Ghost of Jay Cutler on Oct 26, 2009 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions
What say you about Tennessee? In their next game back from shellacking Georgia and after a bye week, the Vols didn’t exactly look stellar against Alabama. A bowl game is still likelier than not, but I’m having trouble seeing how this season ends with Tennessee having more than six or seven wins.
Alabama was the AP number 1 team in the nation. Mark Ingram was everyone’s favorite choice for Heisman. The defense was playing absolutely lights-out. The spread was 16.5 points, and yet Tennessee lost this game off of 3 missed field goals with a kicker who had an injured quad. And you’re saying they didn’t play well? Of course, and Florida was just trying to not run up the score, remember that? They didn’t want to take chances? Right.
Tennessee, by all logic, should have won the game against Alabama. But Mount Cody defies ur logic.
Tennessee Fans: We win at teh Internet!
Both teams looked bad to my eyes
Just winning or losing by less than Vegas says you “should” have doesn’t mean your team played well. There is an element to this of how a team performs independently of how it does relative to the scoreboard; on that count, Tennessee looked lackluster to me but about as or maybe slightly less lackluster than Bama.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
just some thoughts, IMO
1. LSU ain’t going anywhere, at least for two weeks. While they undoubtedly also control their ATL destiny, their final skeddie is a bit tougher than Alabama’s (In addition to Bama, they also have Ole Miss and Arkie). Even if we lose, it’s asking a lot for LSU to win-out.
2. No, it doesn’t. Midseason, folks are beat up. Look at how much better LSU looked after a bye. Same thing last year with Alabama…we practice really hard, and get really banged up. Two weeks of rest will get our heads screwed on our shoulders. Florida’s prob is (among other things) an execution issue in the RZ. The offense is more productive than the ppg indicates at this point in time.
3. An O line built for running, not passing; decimation in the wideouts; no respect for the ability of the Gators to go deep; and lack of creativity in the running game to take pressure off of TT…he’s not Warren Moon.
4. Tennessee had two weeks off to scheme for this game. That was the best they’ll play against a team with a pulse all season. I still don’t see them winning more than 6 either. I like UK to break the streak.
5. I don’t think Ole Miss is back. McCluster finally got the ball, but Snead still had a 1:1 TD-INT ratio, Ark blew their wad had a serious hangover, Mallet is still spotty and his recievers have 10 thumbs. Even with all of that, Ole Miss’ skeddie gives them at least a 9 win season, though.
"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch
by Stuck in the Plains on Oct 26, 2009 7:24 PM EDT reply actions
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