[republished after an inadvertent click vamoosed the original]

Heading into last weekend's (week 5) slate of games, several SEC teams were shrouded in an an opaque cloud of mystery.  Attempts to analyze and/or characterize the likes of at least Georgia Auburn, Tennessee, and LSU produced as many, if not more, confused faces, barely educated guesses and weakly reasoned hypotheses as the first day of TebowGate.

Now by no means was week 5 the equivalent of the ole ball coach's way-too-serious confession.  We don't know all the answers yet.  But while there are still many mysteries to be solved, I believe the available evidence is at least sufficient to facilitate marginally informed predictions.  We've gone from guesses to marginally informed predictions.  It's a start.

We all want want answers, but we'll never really figure out the truth.  And that's okay.  If you already knew Kevin Spacey was Keyzer Soze, would you have sat through The Usual Suspects?  Didn't think so.  Wouldn't have been very exciting.  Definitely not as exciting as making marginally informed predictions against lines set by people who get paid handily to set lines.

But before I jump in and start doing the lines, methinks a quick breakdown of the league is in order.

The Hal Mumme All Stars

Vanderbilt, Kentucky; Mississippi State:

Really not too much to say about this group except that they do not appear to be particularly good at football.  Of the three, MSU is definitely hte most likely to jump out of this group and into a less harshly titled and slightly more competent division.  But I am taking a wait-and-see approach.  Their claim to fame thus far is playing LSU close.  But who hasn't played LSU close?

The Fatal Flaw Association

Arkansas, Tennessee

[Arkansas fan]: "We could be really good if our defense wasn't so easy to score on.  That's what's killing us."

[Tennessee fan]: "I'll tell you what, man.  We would be 5-0 if we could just learn to score the ball.  That's all we're missing."

Biggie ups to the above-two anonymous fans who nicely illustrate the difficulty in winning games when you either (a) can't score, or (b) can't prevent the other team from scoring.  I would personally take option (b) over option (a).  Watching your team put on a three-and-out clinic is really depressing.  Watching them do this for an entire year is enough to ake a fan stop watching his team...or at least stop watching his team when said fan has reasonable access to projectiles.

 The Tennessee Receivers Circuit

Georgia, Ole Miss, South Carolina

Like the Tennessee receivers, none of these teams have been able to get any separation.  They aren't that much better than the bad teams.  They don't appear to be appreciably worse than the good ones.  If this were high school, these teams wouldn't be the cool kids, bu they also wouldn't be mocked by the cool kids.  Similarly, they wouldn't be classifiable as nerds, but they also wouldn't be hated by the nerds...at least not enough to make it onto any of the nerds' "to kill" lists (Billy Madison reference).

I have a feeling, though, that one of these teams will become a lot cooler in the coming weeks -- get some decent clothes, pull up to school in a new car...maybe even score a decent lady.  I just don't know which one (team, not girl).

The Distant Second Division

Auburn, LSU

Guz Malzahn is the real deal.  I was very very impressed with Auburn's offense against Tennessee.  The Vols had a much easier time defending Florida than Auburn.  Obviously, Florida has more pure playmakers on offense than Auburn.  Schematically, though, Auburn is the better offense.  Against Florida, it seemed as if Tennessee knew what was coming every play.  But, again, Florida's playmaker's can sometimes get yards even when the defense knows exactly what is coming.  Totally different story against Auburn.  The defense seemed perplexed at times.  Auburn receptions were made without any orange-clad defenders een in the vacinity.  I am now a believer in Guz Malzahn.

I was tempted to drop LSU down a division just because they appear to be very very average in ever facet of the game.  I have never believed that the ability to win close games was a positive characteristic for a team.  If Team A wins every game by 50, they never put themselves in the position to win close games.  That makes them better than Team B, who eeks out a victory every weekend by the skin of their teeth.  Team B doesn't just "know how to win."  Nonsense.  Team B maybe had a couple plays go their way, but they are playing with fire.  LSU is team B.  LSU is playing with fire.

The BCS Conversationalists

Alabama, Florida

Yeah, these guys are good.  I think Florida wins if and when they play.  But in a tight game.

And, finally, my week 6 picks versus the spread (how team in CAPS)

Auburn (-3) over ARKANSAS

ARMY (+10) over Vandy

Georgia (+1.5) over TENNESSEE

Houston (-2) over MSU

Kentucky (+10) over SOUTH CAROLINA

Bama (-6.5) over OLE MIS

Florida (-8) over LSU (with or without Tebow)

Caveat Emptor is the rule on my picks.  My gambling career has been a series of ups and downs.  I mean, my gambling career would have been a series of ups and downs if gambling were legal.  Either way, be forewarned.