Short of Redemption: LSU's Lost Season Comes to an End
by cocknfire
on Dec 31, 2008 5:37 PM EST
in Football
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There is good news for LSU fans about the Peach Bowl -- and, no, it's not the Chick-fil-A Bowl -- QB Jarrett Lee won't be starting. So there's probably not that much "news" there after Jordan Jefferson started the Arkansas game and played better than Lee. But there's some hope when your teams decides not to start the singal-caller who made an art form of the pick six against a defensive backfield that includes Morgan Burnett, the nation's interceptions leader.
The good news, though, ends there for the besieged Bayou Bengals.
Saying LSU had a disappointing season is an understatement. After losing former starting QB Ryan "Riverboat Gambler" Perrilloux, the Tigers were never able to live up to the hype of being a contender in the SEC West. Their most impressive win was likely the seven-point victory against South Carolina. And the season-ending skid almost looked worse than it already does; LSU very nearly lost to Troy, trailing until a late-game comeback.
Georgia Tech, meanwhile, began their season by defeating a team quarterbacked by -- coincidence here -- Ryan Perrilloux, who found refuge in FCS school Jacksonville State. Most of their early victories, including the three-point win over Gardner-Webb, gave few people any reason to back off predictions that Georgia Tech was in the first stages of building Paul Johnson's triple-option and would be doing good to get to Chan Gailey equilibrium. Then came the final two games of the year, nationally televised demolitions of Miami's and Georgia's defenses and a team that seemed to be "good enough to win the ACC" suddenly seemed to be good -- period.
LSU's rushing defense will be doing all it can to keep up with Jonathan Dwyer and Co. The Bengals' numbers look okay -- until you consider that Florida rushed for 265 yards, Georgia ground out 194 and even run-impaired South Carolina gained 164 on the ground.
Meanwhile, it's hard to see Georgia Tech allowing RB Charles Scott to get much running room. Knowshon Moreno picked up 94 yards in his game against the Jackets, but Scott is no Moreno. And Jefferson might be no Lee -- but that's probably not enough for LSU to win. Georgia Tech 34, LSU 20
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Wow.
38-3 LSU. UGA might really be in trouble unless they can stop Ringer.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on
Jan 1, 2009 12:24 AM EST
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That was the best LSU has probably looked all year – apparently, it helps to have a QB who throws exclusively to players on his own team. (Whoulda thunk, right?) And like BC, GT was absolutely determined to make things harder than they had to be.
But, really – if you thought the Dawgs would handle the Spartans, there’s no reason to waver now. If you thought the reverse, then the results so far of the SEC and Big10 might cause a moment of doubt… personally, I’m starting to think that USC has a real chance against Iowa. If the Tigers can figure out how to stop the triple-headed monster from GT (which seemed very unlikely before the game), then the Cocks – a roughly equivalent team – might be able to stop the Shonn Greene Express. Good luck to ’em, anyway.
by peachy rex on
Jan 1, 2009 12:58 AM EST
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I hope so
But I’m not as all confident, as my prediction will suggest.
And cut me some slack on my LSU prediction — how could I have foreseen how well LSU could do when they didn’t spot the other team a TD or two.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
by cocknfire on
Jan 1, 2009 2:08 AM EST
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Oh, the result surprised me too – I figured GT to be a solid favourite, no question (the FEI formula published by FO rated GT as the heaviest favourite in any bowl game – 91% win probability – and after watching several games of each I saw no reason to disagree.) Indeed, a really competent triple-option team should have been a terrible matchup for LSU. But bowl games – even between teams from conferences with a fair number of regular-season meetings – are dreadfully difficult to predict. LSU looked like a team that had used its month off to recover its balance and prep carefully for a particular opponent (they were all over the triple-option)… and GT looked like a team that had lost its end of season edge during the time off and simply wasn’t ready to play again.
by peachy rex on
Jan 1, 2009 2:47 AM EST
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