BlogPoll Ballot, Week 11
I did it this week for the second time, and it's going to be really hard to talk me out of it this week. And so here is our BlogPoll -- and, yes, that's Texas Tech at No. 1, Florida at No. 2 and Alabama at No. 3.
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| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Tech | -- |
| 2 | Florida | 2 |
| 3 | Alabama | 1 |
| 4 | Texas | 1 |
| 5 | Oklahoma | 2 |
| 6 | Utah | 4 |
| 7 | Southern Cal | 1 |
| 8 | Penn State | 5 |
| 9 | Ohio State | 2 |
| 10 | Oklahoma State | 4 |
| 11 | Boise State | 2 |
| 12 | North Carolina | -- |
| 13 | Missouri | 1 |
| 14 | Georgia | 1 |
| 15 | Florida State | 2 |
| 16 | Ball State | 2 |
| 17 | Oregon State | 9 |
| 18 | Michigan State | 5 |
| 19 | Miami (Florida) | 1 |
| 20 | Virginia Tech | 6 |
| 21 | Pittsburgh | 5 |
| 22 | California | 1 |
| 23 | Georgia Tech | 4 |
| 24 | Wake Forest | 2 |
| 25 | Cincinnati | 1 |
Dropped Out: TCU (#16), Minnesota (#21), LSU (#22), Northwestern (#24), Maryland (#25).
First, let's deal with the Alabama complaints. Here's how I see Florida vs. Alabama right now.
Yes, I know, there are differences between playing a team one week in one setting and playing that same team another week in another setting. And, yes, this is a simplistic way of doing things. But the point is: With the exceptions of Arkansas (blown out by both teams) and Ole Miss, Florida has consistently outperformed Alabama against common opponents. Take it beyond those opponents (and I think this is a more questionable practice, so I didn't give it as much weight), and Florida has outclassed better competition.
I'm not too worried about this, because it will straighten itself out. If Alabama wins out, they'll go to No. 2 and maybe to No. 1, depending on how well they play and how well the Red Raiders play. Same for Florida.
Big movers:
Utah (No. 6, up 4)
BCS or not, the Utes are a pretty good football team. They've beaten a solid BCS team (Oregon State), one of the best midmajors (TCU), a weak BCS team (Michigan) and everyone else they've played.
Penn State (No. 8 down 5)
That was a pretty bad loss. Southern Cal didn't really impress, but the Trojans did better than the Nittany Lions against Ohio State and Southern Cal's one loss was better than Penn State's -- even if the fighting JoePas beat the team Southern Cal lost to.
Oklahoma State (No. 10, down 4)
I think you could make a case for moving them down even lower; after all, they got annihilated by Texas Tech. But they've still got a very good season going, and everyone below them has something going against them, with the possible exception of Boise. So here they are.
Oregon State (No. 17, up 9)
A bit of re-evaluation going on here. Their loss to Penn State doesn't look quite as bad now, even if they did get embarassed, and the loss to Utah looks better each week. Outside of those games, they've won -- including the marquee victory over Southern Cal.
Michigan State (No. 18, down 5)
Not sure entirely what caused this, but I think it's probably got to do with the Big Ten and the upward movement of some of the other teams. I'm open to some convincing on this one.
Virginia Tech (No. 20, up 6)
ACC. They'll lose and be gone next week.
Pittsburgh (No. 21, up 5)
Big East. They'll lose and be gone next week.
Georgia Tech (No. 23, down 4)
Moving them out of the poll likely would have required moving in another team that I might be a fan of but don't want to put in the Top 25 yet. And they've still got one of the better resumes out there. Oh, and: ACC. They'll lose (again) and be gone next week.
As always, your input welcome below.
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Losses Are Better than Wins
I think this is the biggest flaw in resume ranking. You focus on wins to the exclusion of a pretty important thing called not losing. We’ll see December 6, but people like you have been underestimating and disrespecting Bama all year—and they haven’t been right yet.
by Watchman on Nov 9, 2008 11:12 PM EST 0 recs
yep..
And also, yes, Florida beat them by a larger margin, but you have to admit that LSU’s defense definitely performed better against Alabama than Florida. It was two different defenses between the two games.
But still, it gets settled in the championship game and this is just a blog poll anyway, so it doesn’t matter anyway.
by jsholt969 on
Nov 10, 2008 12:02 AM EST
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There is something to be said for not losing
But it’s not everything, as Kansas showed us last year. It’s possble to be undefeated and not be the best of two teams. Alabama is undefeated, but only by the skin of its teeth. And, for the record, after a little bit of convincing last week, I’ve had Alabama at No. 1 or 2 since they beat Georgia until now — and I haven’t picked against the Tide since they beat the Dawgs. I’ve given them the benefit of the doubt.
Also, the other thing about resume ranking: We admit it’s a snapshot, and subject to change. If Alabama wins out and beats Florida in the SEC CG, that’s enough new information to put them ahead of the Gators (obviously). This is NOT a ballot saying Florida’s the better team. It is a ballot saying I think they’ve accomplished more.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
by cocknfire on
Nov 10, 2008 1:27 AM EST
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Ask a Ga. fan
Which beating was worse, and they’ll say that it was Alabama. Check Kyle King’s blog for confirmation. Also, UT outgained Fla., whereas Alabama dominated them, so not sure that’s a push. Not sure how the Clemson game, which was as a underdog, compares at all to a terrible Miami team.
by rtr on Nov 10, 2008 3:18 AM EST 0 recs
Some valid points, however...
Having seen most of both games, I’m not sure I would agree that the Alabama “beating was worse,” though I think that’s an inherently subjective decision. For one half, yes, Alabama blew Georgia out of Athens. I’m not sure if that’s “better” or “worse” than what Florida did.
Outgained is important, but not everything. There are legitimate reasons to get outgained — like building up a 20-0 lead by halftime and benefiting from three turnovers. And the margin wasn’t that wide — 258-243.
And Clemson is 4-5, with wins over The Citadel, N.C. State, S.C. State and Boston College. That’s right, only two wins over FBS teams. Miami is 6-3, with wins over Charleston Southern, at Texas A&M, UCF, at Duke, Wake Forest and at Virginia.
Clemson’s five losses? Alabama by 24, Maryland by 3, Wake Forest by 5, Georgia Tech by 4 and Florida State by 14. Miami’s three losses? Florida by 23, UNC by 4 and Florida State by 2.
Sorry, Miami’s better. I might need to re-evaluate having them ranked, but they’re a much better team than Clemson. Being perceived as an underdog and being an underdog are different things. We thought Clemson was going to be good this year; they never were.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
by cocknfire on
Nov 10, 2008 2:01 PM EST
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One More Try
Each team has been truly and seriously tested only once this year. Florida had their backs to the wall at home against Ole Miss. Bama had its back to the wall on the road against LSU. Which team came through under duress? Which team choked on fourth and one? Beating the frosting off cupcakes is nice, but I’m not really sure that tells you who the better team is.
My point may lack relevance to resume ranking, but losing to Ole Miss (at home) is not better than beating them (at home). And winning a challenge game against the defending national champs on the road is not that much worse than getting ahead early against them at home and capitalizing by forcing them to play catchup. The wins and losses and the box score don’t reflect the emotional intensity, especially of a game like Saturday night.
Can Florida beat Bama? Sure. They’re scary fast with loads of depth we can’t match yet. Will they beat Bama? An awful lot of people are counting things as chickens that look like eggs to me. Clemson did it. Georgia did it. Many (delusional) UT fans did it. And nearly half of the pundits I saw picked LSU to win.
by Watchman on Nov 10, 2008 2:33 PM EST 0 recs
I wouldn't call LSU and Georgia cupcakes...
Part of this depends on what you put weight on. A lot of people will put so much weight on Florida’s lone loss that it will outweigh almost anything else — that’s a perfectly defensible position. I happen to think that what you do (i.e., wins) is a lot more important than what you don’t do (i.e., losses). Both, though have to be weighed.
In the end, we’re talking about the thinnest of margins. If I could have Alabama and Florida tied for second, I would — but that option isn’t open to us on the BlogPoll. In the end, I’m not too worried about it for this reason: Alabama and Florida will settle this on the field. And whoever wins that game could move to No. 1. I like both these teams, and I’m having a really tough time telling them apart. I hope that my zeal in defending my ballot doesn’t conceal that.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
by cocknfire on
Nov 11, 2008 12:40 AM EST
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A litle off the topic du jour...
But why did you move Cal up one spot after they lost?
Go Cocks!
by Gamecock Man on Nov 10, 2008 4:46 PM EST 0 recs
That's a good question
I think I underestimated Cal before this week — to be honest, I’m having trouble making heads or tails of them. On the other hand, losing 17-3 to USC is hardly something of which to be ashamed. Also, consider this: Four teams ahead of them dropped or fell from the ranks entirely. So, this is really a de facto fall of three spots. I’ll think about it, though…
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
by cocknfire on
Nov 11, 2008 12:46 AM EST
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