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Topics for Discussion // 11.15.08

What got into Florida? After the Ole Miss upset, it looked like the Gators were about to head into the toughest part of their schedule: at Arkansas, LSU, Kentucky, vs. Georgia, at Vanderbilt and South Carolina. All they did was beat those six teams by a combined score of 299-63. That's an average of 49.8 ppg for the Gators and 10.5 for their opponents against the class of the SEC (sans Alabama) and a few other good teams. It's not surprising, in retrospect, that Florida defeated all those teams; what's surprising is that the Gators obliterated all those teams.

Where is Tim Tebow in the Heism@n rankings? And before you answer, consider this: Regional voting is a huge deal in Heism@n balloting. Graham Harrell, Michael Crabtree, Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford could split the Big XII vote, and no other area of the country has any obvious candidates. (Sure, there are dark horses like Javon Ringer, but no obvious ones.) If Florida keeps mowing down everyone in sight, could Tebow benefit from a fractured Big XII vote and get enough from the rest of the country to win it?

How many wins does Vanderbilt have at the end of the year? They have six now, will host Tennessee on Saturday and go to Wake Forest on Nov. 29. Throw in a bowl, and the Commodores have an outside shot at ringing up nine wins for the first time in 93 years. How close will they get?

Is LSU a good football team? Sure, they've beat some good football teams, including South Carolina and ... and ... and no one else, really. So what do we make of a team that needed 30 points in the fourth quarter to edge out a Sun Belt team? This is not really a small matter; LSU seems destined for the Cotton Bowl, where they'll face a quality Big XII team and could threaten the SEC's honor.

Rank these teams: Kentucky, LSU, South Carolina, Vanderbilt. This is the middle tier of the SEC, below Alabama, Florida and Georgia. So how do they shake out?

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My attempt

1. This is what happens when you combine a 2006-like defense, a 2007-like offense, and great Urban Meyer special teams. Also, throw in a league that is obviously down where no one can make a comeback against anyone but Troy.

Meyer held things back against Hawai’i for obvious reasons. He held some things back against Miami because they could. He didn’t open things up fully against Tennessee because the Vols’ incompetence allowed UF to get a big lead early. He thought he could get away with one more week of not implementing the full package, so as to save something special for LSU, and he got burnt when turnovers and secondary breakdowns kept the opponent in the game.

Plus, Meyer didn’t play Demps or Rainey much until after Ole Miss because of the look in their eyes. You explain that one.

2. Especially if Tech beats OU, Tebow will probably end up third behind Harrell and McCoy. He’s coming on strong, but it’s probably too little too late. He might sneak in and take it if the Big 12 guys split the vote as you said and Florida obliterates Alabama.

3. I think they’ll beat Tennessee but I’m not sure about Wake Forest. Weird things happen in ACC country and the game is in Winston, but Wake also showed they are capable of losing to NC State.

The bowl will depend on the matchup, but I have my doubts. When no one in the program has ever been to a bowl – from the head coach to the players on down to the equipment managers – because it’s been 26 years, is that a recipe for success? Do they know how to stay focused during bowl season? Will they just be happy to be there? Johnson is the right guy to fight those things, but they are things to consider.

4. Things would be much different if they had Ryan Perriloux. I know not every part of their troubles is related to having a freshman quarterback, but the pick-sixes don’t help anything and the offense is often unable to execute a momentum-shifting drive. They have the running back in Charles Scott. They have the receivers. There’s one thing missing though.

They also miss Bo Pelini dearly.

5. Right now I say LSU, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, then Kentucky, but I may change my mind by the time I fill out my power poll ballot.

by Year2 on Nov 16, 2008 7:34 AM EST   0 recs

My take...

1. Like Year 2 said, the Gators are the total package. They beat teams in every facet of the game and don’t have any noticeable weaknesses. I also agree that LSU, Georgia, and South Carolina, while good teams, just aren’t teams that can hang with national title contenders. It will be interesting to see how Bama, a workmanlike team that beats you in the trenches and doesn’t make mistakes, plays the Gators.

2. I think he should in the conversation, but he probably doesn’t have much of a chance. The trophy is Harrell’s to lose right now, and McCoy is still ahead of Tebow in most voters minds as well.

3. They should beat Tennessee and reach seven. Wake is a toss-up. The Demon Deacons aren’t as good this year as they have been the past few years, but I still think they have a slight edge on Vandy.

4. Losing Perriloux hurt them. Other than that, they’re just in a rebuilding phase. They have plenty of talent and will be better next year.

5. LSU, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Kentucky. LSU is clearly the best of the four. The line between South Carolina and Vandy is thin, especially considering that Vandy beat Carolina earlier this year, but Carolina has a better record and has played better down the stretch. Kentucky has lost to both Carolina and Vandy. The Cats are a decent team, but they lack a truly signature win and their record is mostly built on winning against cupcakes.

Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans. http://www.garnetandblackattack.com

by Gamecock Man on Nov 16, 2008 11:08 AM EST   0 recs

1. They’re an efficient football team that converts mistakes into touchdowns, and the key there is touchdowns. Whether those mistakes are due to the teams or Florida itself could be of question, but the fact that so many teams are committing mistakes against them says something about their ’D. But the SEC is also very down this year. The class of the SEC is Florida and Alabama; Georgia, LSU, and South Carolina are a good step below them.

2. Still behind the Big XII QB’s. It is a team effort at Florida this year. I know he’s the figurehead of that offense, but what McCoy, Bradford, and Harrell are doing is absolutely phenomenal, and Tebow does not look like he’ll have the raw stats to compete with them. Especially since those three appear in the collective to be legit qb’s as opposed to ‘system’ qb’s. I see what you mean by splitting the votes, but there are four other regions of the country outside of the South and the Southwest that have to cast votes, too.

3. I’ll put it at under. They’ll probably beat Tenn, but lose at Wake and their bowl game; but they could go all unranked-ACC and win all three of them as well. But I’m still saying under.

4. Like Gamecock said, they’re in a rebuilding year. They’re decent, but a couple of levels below where their pre-season expectations were.

5. LSU—South Carolina—Vanderbilt—Kentucky.

by The ArchDawg on Nov 16, 2008 1:03 PM EST   0 recs

- All three phases are clicking to a really unusual degree; opposing teams have been only too eager to blow their own feet off (for whatever reason – that’s another debate entirely); and the SEC is definitely down this year, especially at quarterback. Given how good UF looks right now, they probably would have won those games anyhow, but by more modest margins, and with at least one real nail-biter.

- It all depends on Texas Tech. If they run the table, Harrell wins. But if the South gets thrown into a ghastly tiebreak scenario, or TT pulls a Nebraska ‘96 in the title game, then the mechanics of voting could nudge Tebow past the ruck of Big 12 candidates. (Assuming UF, and Tebow, do their part the rest of the way.) At this point, I’d guess second or third, however. (Can we please retire the ‘system QB’ line, though? Everybody plays in a system of some variety – this isn’t sandlot football, you know.)

- Well, they really ought to beat Tennessee – this a golden opportunity to unload all of their frustrations on their state rival, without the pressure of needing the win for eligibility. The ACC is a vortex of chaos this year, so we’ll call Wake a toss-up. And the bowl game is completely unpredictable without knowing the opponent – and as Year2 said, bowl prep is a real art. I can’t really see nine, but eight’s a decent bet.

- LSU is reaching ACC levels of baffling; perhaps the one certain thing is that they’re the poster child for a down year at QB for the SEC. The defence has been weaker than expected (though it lost a ton of talent and a quality coordinator), but it’s tough to have a great season when your QB is handing other teams a blowout’s worth of points. Give LSU a competent QB and they’re probably a solid fourth in the pecking order, just a little behind UGA.

- But without a competent QB… oy. Welcome to our own private ACC. I think LSU is probably still fourth, but much closer to fifth than third now – they’ve only lost to the teams above them, and they clearly have the talent. The others are so close you could probably flip coins, but I’ll say South Carolina, Vandy, Kentucky based on the degree of apprehension I had going into those games.

by peachy rex on Nov 16, 2008 4:38 PM EST   0 recs

Give it a shot

1. Fear. Teams look scared against the Gators. They get down a few early cheap scores (created by either ineptitude or great UF play), and then they mindfart for the next three quarters. Remember, this team CAN be listless when they play someone who hits them over and over again (e.g., Ole Miss, Tennessee). I think we match up better with the Gators than Auburn, and certainly than LSU.

2. Tebow is well-behind Harrell and McCoy. Probably 3-4 with Shonn Greene in the mix (kid is a beast).

3. Vandy gets 7. They beat UT for positioning in the bowl stakes, but prolly wet the bed against Wake (or vice-versa).

4. When motivated, focused and well-coached, they are the scariest bastards on the planet. Behind UF, they clearly have the most raw talent. That said, with the knuckehead coach getting them “motivated, focused and well-coached” is easier said than done. They have 3 losses (Miles usual +1), but I would play UF two outta’ three than play those assholes again.

5. Just on talent: LSU by a wide margin, USC (even without anything resembling a competent forward pass, dominant o-line or sustainable running game), UK (still think 9/10 times they beat Vandy); Vandy.

by Stuck in the Plains on Nov 16, 2008 4:59 PM EST   0 recs

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