Topics for Discussion
by cocknfire on Oct 26, 2008 1:03 AM EDT
in SEC Football
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PrintAs always, a complete recap will be along later in the day. Probably tonight -- work intervenes, even on a weekend.
Florida has the best chance to run the table from here on out? Really? That's what Tim Brando said, and I don't see it. It still seems to me that Alabama has the best chance to do it -- and it's weak to say "Alabama can't go undefeated in the SEC because it's hard to go undefeated in the SEC even if there's no game on their schedule that would lead you to believe they can't go undefeated in the SEC." In any case, here are the remaining schedules for Florida and Alabama:
| Alabama | Florida |
| Arkansas State | Georgia |
| at LSU | at Vanderbilt |
| Mississippi State | South Carolina |
| BYE | The Citadel |
| Auburn | at Florida State |
Take out Arkansas State, The Citadel and Florida State -- those aren't SEC games, and Alabama and Florida should be favored in all of them in any case. Alabama's best remaining game is at LSU, while Florida's is vs. Georgia; we saw how that played out this weekend. So are Auburn and Mississippi State better than South Carolina and Vanderbilt? I would think not. And that ignores Georgia who, after the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, has only at Kentucky and at Auburn to go (and an interconference game against puzzling Georgia Tech). So what am I missing?
Georgia vs. Florida will be the SEC game of the year after all; who wins it? And who would be a harder match for Alabama: The Dawgs, who got clobbered at home when they faced the Tide, or Florida's suddenly Spurrieresque (in point margins) offense? This could become more significant if Texas or Penn State stumbles somewhere down the stretch -- the Gators or the Dawgs could instantly interject themselves in the BCS title talk with a win over Bama in Atlanta. (Or the Tide, if once-defeated, could get itself back in the race.)
What do we make of the middle of the conference? LSU, a week after beating South Carolina, played nowhere near as well as the Gamecocks did against Georgia. Vanderbilt, having defeated South Carolina, Mississippi and Auburn, seems to be in full-fledged collapse. Is Ole Miss somewhere in the "middle"? It seems that there's a chasm between Alabama/Florida/Georgia and LSU and a smaller gap between the Bengals and ... who, exactly? South Carolina? And then what?
Is this a down year for the SEC? I think we have to start leaning toward "yes" on this one. LSU is good but not great. South Carolina is average to above-average, as is Ole Miss -- sometimes. Vanderbilt and Kentucky are slumping. Auburn is an embarrassment to college football, Mississippi State is awful, and Arkansas still hasn't really gotten any better since it had to rally to beat Western Illinois. And then there's Tennessee ...
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1) The Legion of Croom always gets up for Alabama, but really, you’re right. Florida has the toughest path even if you take out the best opponents left for both teams (LSU/Georgia). Vandy and Auburn are both cratering, but South Carolina is tougher than Miss State.
2) My thoughts on who wins will come later, but I think Florida would be a tougher matchup. I don’t know if a healthy Southerland is enough to turn the tide on the Tide, but Florida’s propensity to jump out to early leads would tax an Alabama team that has only been awake for about one second half the whole season.
3) Beats me. I’d put Ole Miss and South Carolina on relatively even terms under LSU, and Kentucky would be there if they were actually healthy. UK is better than they played on Saturday; the early punt blocks were a big blow and things just snowballed on them from there.
4) Yes, and my answer has been yes for a while. There has been just too much shuffling of quarterbacks and coordinators, not to mention graduations and injuries, since last season to keep up the high level. It may not be back next year either if some teams don’t find quarterbacks and Tennessee and Auburn undergo regime changes.
1 – I assumed Brando meant that UF looks like the best team right now… because certainly Bama’s remaining schedule appears less formidable. (UGA of course has the Cocktail Party, but unhealthy Kentucky and Auburn seems easier than SC and Vandy.)
2 – I’ll take the fifth on this one.
3 – The middle is pretty mediocre, really. LSU gets the benefit of the doubt, as their two losses came against the heavyweights of the East, but with two thumpings they’re clearly a step behind the top three. Behind them, between about fifth and ninth, it’s a bit ACC-ish – the order gets shuffled around so much week to week it’s tough to project who’s going to finish where. I’d agree that Miss and SC are top of the heap for now…
4 – Put it this way – who’s the third-best QB in the conference?
If we learned anything this weekend...
It’s that a one-loss SEC team will probably not make the BCS Title Game, because Penn State and either Texas or Texas Tech are going to go undefeated. Alabama is our only hope.
Go Cocks!
BCS:
UT, Bama, PSU, OU, USC
UGA, TTU, UF, OkSU, Utah.
Three in Top 10 for SEC, four for the Big 12, one for the Big 10, one for Pac 10, 1 for MWC.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
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