Alabama Has a 50% Chance of Making the National Title Game
You read that right. I said Alabama has a 50% chance of making the BCS Championship Game. At least, that is what history tells us.
Have a look at one of the handy sidebars to this USA Today column. Every season except one in the BCS era has seen either No. 1 or No. 2 in the first BCS poll of the year make the national title game. The lone exception is the first year, 1998, but that is made up for by 2005 having both No. 1 USC and No. 2 Texas make the title game.
So, we can take a look at the newly minted BCS standings and see Alabama at No. 2 behind everyone's No. 1 (computers included), Texas. Georgia is the next SEC team ranked at No. 7, thanks to the computers loving the Dawgs (they have them No. 6 instead of No. 9 like the humans) and not being that high on a couple other teams like Texas Tech.
Another team the computers don't like? Florida. The Gators are No. 6 and No. 7 in the human polls but are 12 according to the computers. Two of the formulas don't even have Florida in the top 15 of their rankings.
As I understand it, the computer formulas in general look less favorably on home losses like UF's than road losses like USC's and Ohio State's. USC, OSU, and Georgia also all lost to teams in the current top 10 rather than to the best 3-4 team in college football, Ole Miss. The good news for the Gators is that they are just .1061 out of fifth place, they'll get a nice computer bump from playing Georgia (should they win), and the Big 12 teams ahead of them largely still have yet to play each other.
No matter how you slice it though, Alabama has a leg up on everyone in the country except the Longhorns, especially since Penn State is a lot closer to No. 4 Oklahoma than the No. 2 Tide.
The only other SEC team ranked in the top 25 is No. 13 LSU.
5 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Computers playing football:

And yes I am an angry UF fan.
Remember when we were kids and we mixed sodas together and called them "suicides"? It was OK though, because Dr. Pepper was always there.
Just remember
The computers only spit out the numbers from formulas that humans program into them. In the end they are still human polls, only the humans are mathematicians instead of reporters or coaches.
Just so
And of the formula details, which is mandated by the BCS honchos, is disregarding margin of victory. A look at Sagarin’s current ratings is instructive – UF is 17th in the version used by the BCS, but 2nd in the ‘predictor’ rankings, which are based on MOV. (And which predicted a two TD victory over LSU.) The composite rankings put UF at 7th, which is pretty much in line with current human opinion. A glance at the current predictor v ELO-CHESS rankings is quite instructive, really.
Sounds like a personal problem.
I just don’t like polls to begin with. They create more problems than they solve (BCS). PLAYOFF

by 






