Topics for discussion
by cocknfire on Oct 18, 2008 11:48 PM EDT
in SEC Football
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PrintSeveral close games this weekend, as Alabama edges Ole Miss, 24-20, LSU gets by South Carolina, 24-17, and Kentucky just manages to beat Arkansas, 21-20. The only two games decided by more than a touchdown were both closer than they appear: a late Georgia FG padded their margin in a 24-14 defeat of Vanderbilt and two interceptions helped Tennessee put three TDs on the board in the four quarter to win 34-3 over Mississippi State.
Does Vanderbilt's defeat officially make the SEC East a two-team race? South Carolina's hopes are now pretty much dead, and Kentucky's are on life support. Even before this weekend, the Commodores were the only ones with any real chance to beat Georgia and Florida. But with two losses, it's hard to see Vanderbilt holding on.
Was Florida's command performance a fluke? No one who saw the game last weekend doubted the best team won. But it was reasonable to question whether LSU was really that bad, or Florida really that good. What, if anything, does the Bengals' defeat of South Carolina tell us about LSU or Florida?
Did Tennessee save its season? And what would that mean? The Vols are still in severe danger of ending the year with a losing record, but avoided making that a certainty, at least for now. Again, the remainder of their schedule: vs. Alabama, at South Carolina, vs. Wyoming, at Vanderbilt, vs. Kentucky.
Is Alabama vulnerable? Before Saturday, it looked like the only team that might be able to challenge them before the SEC Championship Game was LSU, and the Bengals might not be able to do that if they couldn't beat South Carolina. Even if LSU had fallen, though, it now seems as though Alabama might have problems putting away inferior teams. Does that catch up with them before the end of the year?
Are there any SEC candidates for the Heism@n? If so, who?
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My crack at answering
1) It always was a two-horse race, if you took the long view of it. It’s hard to contend for a division title without quality and stability at quarterback, and only two teams have those.
2) Florida played at the upper range of its ability and LSU played at the lower end. Replay that game a few more times, and you don’t get a 30-point Florida win in every one. UF has played that well exactly twice so far – against LSU and Hawai’i.
LSU’s win tells us they’re not planning on letting Alabama run away with the West, and that South Carolina is still missing something. I don’t think it says a thing about the Gators.
3) Fulmer saved himself from the ignominy of being Croom’d, but we don’t know a whole lot else. He’s definitely not hitting the 8 wins that automatically extends his contract, but the bowl hopes are alive. Most interesting takeaway: Creer got the majority of the rushes. That’s new.
4) Yes, Alabama is vulnerable. There’s too much youth on the team to keep them from being a consistent buzzsaw through its schedule.
5) Only Tebow and Moreno have the potential to put up numbers that will impress the voters to a sufficient enough degree, and Tebow’s only still in it because he won it last season and because of the big win over LSU. Right now it is Colt McCoy’s to lose.
They didn't even play this good against Hawaii
That game was close going into halftime. It wasn’t until later in the second half when Florida—due to their superior players and depth, began to pull away in that game. Last week was the only time that Florida has looked that good all season.
by The ArchDawg on Oct 19, 2008 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Erm
It was actually 28-0 at the half, and Hawaii’s sparkling 126 yards of total offence in the first hardly suggested the likelihood of a blazing comeback in the second, no?
Using superior talent and depth to wear down an opponent in the first and hammer them into submission in the second is a fair description of the Miami and Arky games, true – and, I would suggest, the LSU game, which was closer at the 8:40 mark of the third than the Hawaii game was at the 1:45 mark of the first (or at any point thereafter.)
In the bigger picture :
- Yes, and like Year2 says, it probably always was; it’s looking more and more like Vandy has been the anti-Ole Miss.
- Probably, but I’d say the fluke was in the margin rather than the result.
- Beating MSU was necessary but not sufficient; still a ways to go.
- Yes, because while Bama has tremendous first-line talent, it lacks quality depth. As jsholt notes, they’ve always been able to jump out far enough in the first to survive the second… so far.
You're right
I was thinking about the Miami game for some reason. Oops.
But still, Hawaii isn’t good at all so it’s a moot point. That’s like bragging about UGA’s win over Central Michigan as its best game.
by The ArchDawg on Oct 19, 2008 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
And I don't mean 'bragging' per se,
But using results from games such as that as if they really mean too much. Which they far too often don’t.
by The ArchDawg on Oct 19, 2008 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough
A really good team is supposed to pound someone like Hawaii. (And in fact the failure to pound on weenies was one criticism of Hawaii last year.)
I guess my larger point is that, though the LSU game looked different because of the perceived quality of the opponent, it followed essentially the same pattern as the games against Miami and Arky. Jumping on the other guy early and then coasting late makes for a more comfortable viewing experience, but the other way works just as well in the end. And I think we’ll see more of it as the college game evolves. There are so many good players now that almost any school can land a few, especially in the higher profile positions. The advantage of the heavyweights will be their ability to land a lot, at all positions. The starters for a middleweight (a nice average big conference school headed to a decent bowl in some out of the way city) may be competitive with those of a heavyweight. The backups will not … and that talent differential will likely be most apparent in the last twenty minutes.
One thing to remember...
is that Ole Miss has a pretty good team. They’re just a couple of plays/turnovers away from either being undefeated or a one loss team. That still doesn’t give Alabama an excuse for how they played in the second half, but Ole Miss is probably the best 3-4 team in the nation.
I think Bama’s biggest vulnerability is finishing games. They get up on a team and then just sit on the lead the rest of the game. I think Bama might be the best first half team in the nation, but they have not really ever carried it over into the second half. I believe they have been outscored something like 66-13 in the second half this year. Fortunately they’re outscoring opponents 96-3 I think in the first quarter.
My take
1) I’m not all that objective, but I think the SEC East isn’t close to being decided yet. Florida @ Vandy is the decision point; A Florida win on November 8th makes it a two team race.
2) Florida’s dominance of LSU was no more atypical than their loss to Ole Miss. I think those two games have essentially defined the range that Florida will play within. The fact that the LSU game came after the Ole Miss game means that we should expect more of the former and less of the latter.
As for 3-5, I don’t have much to add to Year2’s analysis.
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