BlogsHappy Independence Day from Team Speed Kills
by cocknfire
on Jul 4, 2009 12:00 AM EDT
in General
0 comments
Happy Independence Day!
Take a moment to remember what we're celebrating today. Around 233 years ago -- the Continental Congress voted for independence on July 2 and approved the Declaration of Independence on July 4, most of them signing it later -- a group of men literally put their lives on the line to endorse this country's existence. It was not an easy journey from there, either; there were grave doubts for many years that America would endure.
One of my favorite Independence Day stories comes from July 4, 1826. Thomas Jefferson and John Adams had finally repaired their friendship, which had been left in tatters by political battles in the late 1790s and early 1800s. Both lie on their deathbeds on that day in 1826. Adams' final words were reportedly "Thomas Jefferson survives."
If that's what he said, he was wrong, because Jefferson was already dead.
Others say the only intelligible final words were "Thomas Jefferson." That one works for me just as well. Maybe better.
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Has South Carolina Underachieved Under Spurrier?
by Year2
on Jul 3, 2009 3:00 PM EDT
in Football
0 comments
The question that makes up the title of this post is one often asked, and it's a theme I touched on in Monday's past as present post. I also ran across this quote from Phil Steele today, and it prompted me to do this post:
"I felt USC had the talent the last two years to finish higher than they did in the SEC East. This year they have 11 returning starters (second fewest in the SEC). Spurrier’s squad overachieved in his first season but I feel they’ve underachieved the last three seasons and could easily turn it around."
That's some prime hedge work there, but it does lay out something concrete: SC overachieved in 2005 and underachieved since. Well, there's few things I enjoy more than a good fact check, so away we go.
Over/underachieving ultimately is based on an expectation. Steele bases his on talent. My favorite way to go is with Pythagorean expectation (a.k.a. Pythagorean wins), which gives an approximate win percentage your team should have made it to given the number of points you scored and allowed.
Here's the differences in South Carolina's Pythagorean and real wins under Spurrier (I-AA games have been omitted):
| Season | PyWins | Real Wins | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 6.13 | 7 | 0.87 |
| 2006 | 8.40 | 7 | -1.40 |
| 2007 | 5.41 | 5 | -0.41 |
| 2008 | 5.61 | 6 | 0.39 |
When you see a difference between -1 and 1, that means it's fairly negligable. The 2005 season does come pretty close to overachieving expectations though, as positive 0.87 is close to one. The 2006 season is the only clear indicator either way, with the team underachieving by more than a game. I bet I can guess which game it was they were supposed to win but didn't.
So at least from a performance standpoint, South Carolina has been spot-on with its records the past two seasons. That's not what Steele was talking about though; he believes the performance didn't match the talent on hand. Indeed, take a look at the Pythagorean win percentage over the past four years:
| Season | PyWin Pct. |
|---|---|
| 2005 | .511 |
| 2006 | .700 |
| 2007 | .491 |
| 2008 | .467 |
After the near-customary second year bump, performance (as defined by this method) has declined. Or has it?
One thing that folks who work with Pythagorean expectation agree on is the fact that blowouts are outliers that can skew things quite a bit. That's why I always take out games against I-AA competition. No one seems to agree on what the cap for blowouts should be (or even if caps are the correct way to deal with them), but they do make a difference. Take Arizona from last year for example. Its PyWin percentage was .783, until you remove its 70-0 win over Idaho at which point it drops to .712. That's nearly a ten percent swing.
Spurrier's outlier from last year was the 56-6 fire bombing delivered by his alma mater. Remove that one from the mix and the PyWin percentage for the Gamecocks jumps from .467 to .595, an even larger move that Arizona's thanks to all the close games South Carolina played in.
That tells me that there could be some of that hope that Gamecock fans are so familiar with. As bad as things got from time to time, the team wasn't a complete disaster. A .595 winning percentage projects out to seven wins over a 12 game schedule (Florida and I-AA opponent excluded, bowl included), then add the freebie against the I-AA team for an eighth win. That's not the makings of a great team, but it's better than the dire predictions some have been assigning to the team.
I'm okay with leaving out the Florida game in analyzing last year for the benefit of looking at next year, mainly because there is no more hope of taking down the Gators in 2009 as there was in 2008. The Gamecocks won't be a ghastly -11 in turnover margin again, and Stephen Garcia will play better thanks to new quarterbacks coach G.A. Mangus and him not being yanked every third drive for another guy. The defense will have some trouble overcoming its losses, but it won't fall off the map with the vets they do have returning and the steady hand of DC Ellis Johnson at the wheel.
The schedule isn't that forgiving, but yes, there is hope for 2009. There was improvement from 2007 to 2008 (the game in Gainesville excluded), and the weak half of the team should improve. Winning 10 games is probably out of the question, but another six win campaign is less likely than some would have you think.
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SEC 2009 // The Last Savior We Had Around Here Didn't Do So Well
by cocknfire
on Jul 3, 2009 1:00 PM EDT
in Football
0 comments
I have to admit that, after I look at Spurrier's success at South Carolina over his first four years, I was little bit taken aback by a later Dr. Saturday piece. Not exactly what the Doctor says; most of it is a solid attempt to question Spurrier's claim that his first four years were the best four years of South Carolina history. My previous piece had been about Spurrier's first four years compared to the first four years of previous head coaches, and those findings still stand: Spurrier has been the most successful coach during his first four years at South Carolina in nearly 50 years.
What jumped out at me, though, was the Doc's chart. It pretty clearly showed that this was no "golden age" for the Gamecocks, something that took me by surprise. Part of this, of course, is because my Gamecock fandom is relatively short-lived; I never really paid attention to South Carolina until I decided to attend in 1998. My first season on campus was a disastrous 1-10 campaign, followed by an utterly embarrassing 0-11 mark.
But let's look a little more closely at the Gamecocks' winning percentage just in the SEC, which strips away a nonconference schedule that can vary widely from year to year.
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SEC 2009 // A Gamecock's Mind
by cocknfire
on Jul 3, 2009 11:00 AM EDT
in Football
1 comment
For those who don't know, I ran Garnet and Black Attack, the South Carolina blog here on SB Nation, before launching Team Speed Kills. When I moved over here, GABA was placed in the more than competent hands of Gamecock Man, who has done a superb job at running the place. Gamecock Man agreed to answer a few questions as part of South Carolina week.
Is Stephen Garcia really "the guy"? And even if he is, do Gamecock fans really have faith in him to stay out of trouble through an entire season?
Tough questions; I guess it depends on what you mean by "the guy." In terms of arm strength, mobility, and other physical qualities, Garcia appears to have the tools to be a good SEC quarterback. He'll need to continue to improve his knowledge of the playbook and his decision-making skills, but I think that will come with experience. The results from spring practice sound promising in that regard. Therefore, I fully expect Garcia to be an improvement over Blake Mitchell and Chris Smelley, and I think he's fully capable of helping us get to 8-9 wins and a New Years Day Bowl, especially in his junior and senior seasons. If that's what you mean by "the guy," then yeah, I think Garcia is "the guy." If you mean someone that can be one of the nation's best quarterbacks, the kind of player that can elevate this offense to SEC-title caliber, then it's really almost impossible to say. Obviously, we'll get an idea of what his ceiling is like this year. If he dramatically improves and we have a very good year, then the expectations for 2010 will be sky high for Garcia and the Gamecocks. Sort of like what you see with Jevan Snead and Ole Miss this year. As far as his off-field behavior, I think most people think he's grown up. He seems to have matured and taken a leadership role on the team, which is a good sign. You of course never know with someone with his history, but I don't think he'll have any more problems of that sort.
The losses from last year's team that look most harmful are WR Kenny McKinley and TE Jared Cook. Does that sound about right to you, and do you worry about whether their replacements can fill the void?
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Classic Moments in Bad SEC Ads: On the Hunt
by Year2
on Jul 3, 2009 9:00 AM EDT
in Football
1 comment
One consequence of SEC football's popularity is that its major personalities often end up in advertisements. Since they are football coaches or players and not actors, and because the ads are usually produced by local ad agencies, we often end up with hilarious results. Over the course of the offseason, we'll be highlighting some of the best ones.
The Pitch: Lumber
The Pitchman: Steve Spurrier
The Setup: Steve Spurrier and his good friend the Yella Fella are on a jungle safari looking for a rare breed of animal. Just when Spurrier is ready to give up, they happen upon a clearing...
The Ad:
Remarks
If I had a dollar for every Spurrier/Osmose ad I saw while growing up, I'd be the one stimulating the economy right now instead of the feds. Thanks to my family's weekly routine of watching the Steve Spurrier Show during lunch after church in the fall as I grew up, I will probably be able to recite the slogan, "If it doesn't say Osmose on the little yellow tag, believe me, you don't want it" until the day I die. I'm sure many of you out there can relate.
I wouldn't find out until much later that the Yella Fella himself is actually an Auburn booster, which makes him odd company for Spurrier to be traipsing through the jungle with. Although, if Steve's automatic first analogy for everything is pressure treated lumber like it is in this spot, then hey, stranger pairs have existed. I'd also like to know what exactly the people in yellow were tailgating for in the middle of a jungle.
Spurrier is far from the only coach to appear in one of these spots (see also: Jim Donnan), but unfortunately, not many of them are out there on YouTube. I'm sure everyone's got a favorite one; they're bad, but they're memorably bad and that's what counts. The one above is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes this series of pitches that go back to the times when Gene Stallings and Pat Dye were the on-screen talent. Maybe now that the Yella Fella has his own YouTube channel (yes, really), some of the old classics will resurface.
So, how to grade this one? Well the type of commercial is classic (Osmose), and it sure is about as trite as they come. However, this came from late enough in Spurrier's career that he seems to actually be trying to be a good actor in it, instead of shooting darts at the cameras with his eyes as some other coaches have done. It's missing something, but I can't quite put my finger on it...
Ah yes, there it is. Get that man a blue shirt, and I'll build a deck off my apartment's balcony.
The Score: 
As a side note, I considered reviewing Spurrier's Digiorno commercial with Tyrone Willingham. However upon further review, it's even more painful than I remember. The Otters? Getting outsmarted by Ty? Augh. The official score of that one is: destroys my childhood. See also: "Yeaaaah, click clack."
Got a tip on one for future review? Shoot an email to year2.blog at gmail dot com.
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Sprints Hopes Its Fireworks are Legal // 07.03.09
by cocknfire
on Jul 3, 2009 1:08 AM EDT
in Sprints
0 comments
A couple degrees of separation. Probably due at least in part to the impending holiday, there's not a ton of actual SEC news out there today. So let's take a look at some related items.
First up: Dr. Saturday sees an indication of leniency for the Trojans in the relatively weak penalties approved for FSU and Alabama.
If the Trojans are meant to be just an example, well, the Association had a chance to knock Alabama back into the Dubose era as a repeat repeat offender, and didn't take it. What incentive does it have to make those kinds of waves?
I would agree with the Doc that we should be cautious about drawing the conclusion that Southern Cal will become an example from what we have before us ... except there's a significant difference between what Florida State and Alabama did and at least some of the allegations against Southern Cal. After all, whatever you want to say about the Alabama and FSU, there were no allegations in their recent cases of money changing hands. Free textbooks and even academic fraud are one thing; allegedly paying for players or benefiting from players who are receiving payment is an order of magnitude worse.
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SEC 2009 // Guessing the Gamecocks
by cocknfire
on Jul 2, 2009 11:00 AM EDT
in Football
3 comments
C&F's predictions for the South Carolina Gamecocks.
Finish: 3rd, SEC East
General: No matter how much he might try to protest otherwise, this is likely a make-or-break year for Steve Spurrier in Columbia. Not that a 7-5 record is likely to get him fire, though it's not out of the question that it could lead him to quit. But most coaches have at least given some indication by the fifth year about whether they can win a conference title. The talk of youth obscures the flip side of that equation, namely that this could be a chance for Spurrier and his coaches to start over. The Gamecocks should at least play better this year, if for no other reason than that it would be difficult for a team with the recruiting years they've had and the talented coaches they have to play any worse. I'm not sure it will make much of a difference in the record, though.
More specific: It's not impossible to sketch out a nine-win season for South Carolina, though it's incredibly difficult: Sweep the conference pushes and non-conference schedule and pull off an upset, most likely against Georgia. In the process, though, they can't lose any of the minefield games on the slate (N.C. State, Vanderbilt, Clemson). Any scenario for 10 or more wins is laughable. Eight wins is more plausible -- a loss in one of the minefield games and pulling an upset -- but still hard to see. Either "dream season" requires absolutely nothing to go wrong for the Gamecocks, something that rarely happens for any football team. To some extent, South Carolina is a victim of timing here, pulling two of the strongest teams in the West and missing out on the one remaining conference cupcake (Mississippi State). I'm giving them third in the division because I think they're more likely to defeat Tennessee than Arkansas.
Game-specific:
9.3 :: at N.C. State :: POSSIBLE WIN
9.12 :: at Georgia :: POSSIBLE LOSS
9.19 :: vs. Florida Atlantic :: POSSIBLE WIN
9.24 :: vs. Ole Miss :: PROBABLE LOSS
10.3 :: vs. S.C. State :: POSSIBLE WIN
10.10 :: vs. Kentucky :: POSSIBLE WIN
10.17 :: at Alabama :: LIKELY LOSS
10.24 :: vs. Vanderbilt :: PROBABLE WIN
10.31 :: at Tennessee :: PUSH
11.7 :: at Arkansas :: PUSH
11.14 :: vs. Florida :: LOSS
11.28 :: vs. Clemson :: POSSIBLE WIN
Final record: 7-5, 3-5 SEC East
--
MONDAY: South Carolina Leans on Hope, Again
TUESDAY: The Carolina Calendar
WEDNESDAY: Spurrier Meets with Two Students; Stephen Garcia -- and the Rest of the Depth Chart; Hope and Homerism
TODAY: Predictions
FRIDAY: Feedback and Conclusions
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What Happened to SEC Quarterbacks, Part II
by Year2
on Jul 2, 2009 9:16 AM EDT
in Football
6 comments
With the top six teams in passing efficiency of 2004 out of the way in part one, let's continue with the bottom six to see how SEC quarterbacks for 2009 compare with just a few years ago.
2004: Jay Cutler, junior
2009: Larry Smith, sophomore / Mackenzi Adams, senior
I like the potential that Smith has, but Cutler is not the kind of quarterback who comes to Vanderbilt every year. Heck, Cutler is not the kind of quarterback that comes to Vandy every decade. Adams is a serviceable option if something were to happen to Smith or his effectiveness, but at this point we know who and how limited he is. We'll have to see what Smith can do, but he's no Jay Cutler yet.
Verdict: A bit worse
2004: Dondrial Pinkins, senior / Syvelle Newton, sophomore
2009: Stephen Garcia, sophomore
Pinkins was the starter in '04, but Newton ended up with more yards and touchdowns. Both got dinged up some as each were runners, Pinkins moreso than Newton, and some freshman guy named Blake MItchell even saw some mid-season work. Garcia also has some wheels, but with the headman now Steve Spurrier instead of Lou Holtz, his passing is more important. The situation in '09 is not that different than '04, it's just that there's only one guy instead of two.
Verdict: Even
2004: Brodie Croyle, junior / Spencer Pennington, junior / Marc Guillon, sophomore
2009: Greg McElroy, junior
I'll give you $10 if you're not a Tide fan and you could have named Guillon and Pennington both. Croyle was the clear Plan A, but he was lost for the season in a blowout win over Western Carolina in the season's third game. Guillon came in, but he lost his two starts and was benched. Pennington would then finish out the rest of the season, but he was no Croyle. McElroy won this off season's quarterback derby to replace John Parker Wilson. Whether he's better than the '04 situation depends on whether you look at the preseason prospects or the final results.
Verdict: Even (with everything averaged in)
2004: Shayne Boyd, senior / Andre' Woodson, freshman
2009: Mike Hartline, sophomore
Boyd was easily the starter, with Woodson only seeing time when Boyd was injured or at the end of blowouts. Still, he did quite well with the time he did have. Boyd did some things running the ball, but he completed just 52% of his passes in '04 and had more interceptions than touchdowns. Hartline was hardly a smashing success last year, though he no longer has to look over his shoulder at now-receiver Randall Cobb. We'll see how long that lasts. Boyd may not have been Maxwell Award material, but he at least was a senior, and Woodson showed promise for the future.
Verdict: Worse
2004: Three dudes you don't remember a thing about (Ethan Flatt, Michael Spurlock, and Robert Lane)
2009: Jevan Snead, junior
Snead is considered by many to be a legit Heisman Trophy candidate. But did you know the same was true for all three guys the Rebels played in 2004? [citation needed]
Verdict: Much, much better
2004: Omarr Conner, sophomore
2009: Tyson Lee, senior / Tyler Russell, freshman
Conner was still young in '04, and it showed. He missed a little time to injury but otherwise was the man in Starkville. As you can tell though, the Bulldogs finished last in the conference in passing efficiency. Lee would appear to be a good fit for Dan Mullen's new offense as he's a dual threat guy with spread offenses in his background. He's not that tall though, and he'll be looking over his shoulder at Russell.
Verdict: A little better
So where does that leave us?
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Southeastern Conference Standings
(updated 2.23.2009 at 12:08 PM EST)
| East | Conf | Overall | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | W | L | |
Florida Gators
|
7 | 1 | 13 | 1 |
|
Georgia Bulldogs
|
6 | 2 | 10 | 3 |
|
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
4 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
| Vanderbilt Commodores | 4 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
|
Tennessee Volunteers
|
3 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
|
Kentucky Wildcats
|
2 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| West | Conf | Overall | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | W | L | |
|
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
8 | 0 | 12 | 2 |
|
Mississippi Rebels
|
5 | 3 | 9 | 4 |
|
LSU Tigers
|
3 | 5 | 8 | 5 |
|
Arkansas Razorbacks
|
2 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
|
Auburn Tigers
|
2 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
|
Mississippi St. Bulldogs
|
2 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
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Saturday, Sep 5, 2009, 8:00 PM EDT
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Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
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Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field
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